Member Info for sufc555

The only think we do know is that admiral’s 2022 profit will crash compared with 2021

The shorters (based on historic data) usual cash out at end of November allowing share price run up to next divi - they will be back at end of august beginning of September

I see the endless discussions here re DLG motor book - let’s discuss their commercial book - what’s the 5 year increase in gwp? - number of policies written - profit - commercial as a percentage of total gwp - where will commercial be in 5 years - why not spin it out via NIG?

If anything ADM I’d the value trapper high divi narrow focus no internal means of controlling inflation

Reminder dlg owns NIG a major commercial insurance provider through brokers - the dividend is safe and likely to increase

Reminder dlg are half the value of admiral presently - this will narrow in 2023

I’ve just checked Admiral’s half year results - their profit from home and travel was £5m yes five no profit at all from commercial and a loss on their personal loan book and foreign motor - compare this to dlg who managed over 100m profit from home and commercial - commercial profit was 55m a huge increase on 2015 levels

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of DLG business income - they are much more diverse than Admiral / their annual gwp for commercial alone was over 550m for 9 months ending sept - an increase of about 15% year on year and up over 50% in last 5 years - home is £300m for same period / Admiral are much more reliant upon motor and yet trade at half their market value - DLG ordinary divi is sustainable and this stock should climb to £3 next year when it will still be yielding over 8%

Re motor their premiums are guaranteed to rise 500m next q3 as they take over mobility from rsa

I see DLG are closing in on buying back/canc 200m shares since the IPO. I suppose this makes it much easier to grow the regular divi - based on 25p per annum this is freeing up £50m per year - at this rate they will canc another 200m shares in next 5 years

Give that accidents are still a 1/3 lower than 2019 and whiplash reforms have also impacted the cost of claims is down irrespective of replacement vehicle costs

since the short was closed on 1.12.21 DLG has risen about 16% compared with about ftse 100 of about 6%
the real reasons why the share is out performing is a lack of manipulation from us hedge funds - pre closing of the short - the share price would often open down significantly on zero news -

Bizarrely the share price opened at 260 yesterday - if it did and they closed they would have a few million - how do they do lowers the price at the start

Today’s volume was highest in 8 years - 85m shares traded - what’s happening ?

The divi is 15p in May plus 150m buy back

High volume over last 14 days - today -

Nov-21 17:24:52 281.50 8,086,000 Buy* 23m

this is one advantage of DLG they have https://www.dlgautoservices.com/ plus there own EV repair site

unless i missreading the hy results solvency was

(2021) Solvency capital ratio post-dividends and share buyback
195%

(2020)
Solvency capital ratio 192%

(2019)
165%

i don't think they take into account debt call? the normal ratio is 140-170 i think? no mention of where they are in q3 q&a - but it must have improved given the vast reduction in claims and increase in GWP?

reminder - this stock is being manipulated by US hedge funds - opened 1% down then 3 mins later was 1% up - 2 weeks ago it went up 12% in 30 mins on no news - it fell yesterday 4% on solid numbers - the buyback should finish next week so hopefully will settle down into Jan - i listened to the CFO yesterday he said he is 'open minded' re special divi or buy back to return additional monies to shareholders - hopefully a mixture - he said at the current level of share price the buy back provides best medium long term value e - he didn't say this but every 40m shares bought back saves the firm £10m in ord divi - over 10 years this would enable the ord divi to increase significantly without additional cash - he wants solvency rate to return to 160% currently about 195% - 200% - HL report was therefore v v misleading -

They only have about 800k shares left to buy back this will end soon

Q3 is normally the dullest update - full year and q2 always interesting as divi announced