Member Info for sufc555

It’s called the law - the burden is on the injured to prove they were injured and as a result of the negligence of another

There are two savings / whiplash damages ie injury to neck back shoulder are tariffed with about a 50% reduction compared with current awards / lawyers now receive no costs in cases that are settled at 5k or less - in terms of saving there are about - pre pandemic - 550k claims per annum - Dlg has 14% of market therefore deals with say 75k claims - average current pay out is 3k with £600 to lawyer - so approx saving pa is £2k per case or about £150m - however some big lawyers are no longer dealing with these claims so claims may reduce - calculating enforcing a reduction in premiums is impossible

Start today for accidents on or after 31.5.21 - there are about 500k claims per annum - any questions let me know

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-confirms-measures-protect-customers-loyalty-penalty-home-motor-insurance-markets

It’s out / I’m in

Who will receive the divi first !

Dlg looking to move into el pl insurance / see latest growth - obvious target for Zurich who dominate this space

See times article in late December
However Blackstone own 10% of shares - we shall see over next 12 months

Ignore the divi for this incredible company - it’s the takeover that will burn the short sellers

The divi gets reinvested always

When the interim report was release on Tuesday 22.9.20 the share price fell 7.1% - obv I don’t know what’s in the final report so we shall see - I personally will wait to be fully invested after the report is released

Not sure if anyone tuned into q1 results - but it seems almost certain that the fca report will be released before 1st June - the short term effect in share price could be significant - does anyone know which day such a report will be released ? I assume a Monday in which case it will be 24th as 31st is a bank holiday

Dlg
Pays approximately £8 per annum for every £100
Of shares purchased. Assuming a 3% per annum increase in dividend then in 10 years dividend will have paid £90 for every £100 shares owned. This has worked over past 8 years for me

I’m in on Tuesday - fca report due in q2 normally released on first working day of week - I’m all in post release of report - I get the yield at 7.9% - Reminder whiplash reforms due to start for accidents on or after 31.5.21

My view is that investors are waiting for final FCA report before buying - due in q2 - preliminary report last year in sept caused shares to fall 7% - I’m waiting then in - this company has too much cash on the balance sheet and claim cost due to fall from end of May

Favourable rotation into value coupled with £750k buy back per trading day has the potential goal for this to reach £3.50 post divi - unlike the last 4 years which had seen a post divi decline - here we go - the level of claims is still 40% down in rta s and no weather events so far in 2021

The key to the results is the release of capital reserves - in terms of profit 2017 it was 70/30 in favour of capital release had this same ration been applied profits would have been much much higher - 2020 it was 65/35 in favour of operating profit - I understand why - record profits in a pandemic doesn’t look great but have a look at capital release in admiral’s results way way higher - long term desire is a 50/50 split - another 8p in sept and between now and then 50m buy backs to support share price post ex divi day

I’m hoping for 14.8p and buy back of 200m - special divis are over to avoid share deflation post ex divi - admirals results were good but they fell5%! Does anyone have a link for market estimates for results?

although they won't admit it this is a 400m per annum win for DLG from 1.6.21

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/government-reveals-long-awaited-whiplash-portal-start-date-and-tariffs/5107581.article?utm_source=gazette_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Whiplash+rules+and+tariffs+revealed+%7c+Demoralised+judges+%7c+Secret+Magistrate_02%2f26%2f2021

I’d be disappointed with 14p I’ve pencilled in 14.8p plus buy back of 200m