Member Info for Stupmy

bit of a pop up this morning. I think this'll fade to around 102.5 or maybe lower. But, cardfactory RNS this morning was quite up beat re the high street. Not sure if that could have led to a positive read across here or not. I'm sure there are also other RNS's that may have contributed. Whatever, something led to some positivity here which is already good. If we're lucky, then in the short term at least, a bottom might be in. Should the price come down to the 102.5 level, I'll start to get interested in entering again. Wider market falls are unlikely to be over though, so I'm still not viewing this as an investment. I personally believe that the high-street will find a base and the survivors in that sector will start to thrive.

I'm not here to invest long term, but it looks interesting from a trading perspective today. I've been in and out a bit recently profitably and have re-entered this morning around 468. I think we'll see a bit of relief from recent falls.

Taking another leg down. I saw someone else posting the view that 71 on WTI was considered not unlikely on trading view. I had roughly that as not unlikely for Brent. Certainly doesn't look good tonight.

If you were onedb, I'd not have read that. I used to call it my 'tits and timewasters' rule, but I suspect that's just adding to the noise that I don't like myself. Mostly I just quietly filter and never look again.

Thanks BT, not often anyone says anything pleasant on the boards.

Owls, sorry shoud have read more of the posts. You're assuming from what I can see investing in/trading a single market. That's not actually what I do. I do favour some markets and do have long term positions in those that more closely follow the rationale that you appear to favour (I can tell you that in one of those I've missed two opportunities at 30-45% gains by holding on). But I trade other markets and am in and out. I attempt exploit the ups and downs (time entries and exits). That's working well for the moment.
In a way to get the most out of the approach you're suggesting/supporting, you'd need to get in low preferably in a bull-market. That in itself is timing. If you were to have bought many stocks 2 or 3 mths ago and held, then that would be poor timing as many/most have fallen away. So by badly timing entries, holding for a bottom, then waiting for it go back, then if it goes get back to your entry you'll feel safe/ok whatever, but the whole of that time has been 'opportunity cost'. I'm nto suggesting you change, you do it the way you want to. I even said in the earlier post that many financial experts advocate the approach you're taking. I don't, unless you have an element of timing the market anyway.

Owls, I didn't suggest 25%, that was taken as an example from someone elses post. You play it the way you want to play it. I certainly won't play it on sound-bites ..time in the market rather than timing... etc. Find your own way, not my decision what you do. I'll time my entries and exits.

I doubt I'm very good at it either, but I try not to accumulate unless it's part of a pre-worked out idea. So when a trade works well, I'm in and out fast with a profit. If I have trades running that didn't go so well and look unlikely to come back on side quickly, then I use some of that profit against whatever running loss I'm losing faith with. I don't allow my overall risk to increase too much. I don't repeatedly buy dips and accumulate on the whole. I am planning to buy more shares should ENQ SP fall a little more.

We don't disagree on that KO, but I am looking to profit by trading around these swings, it'll either work or it won't and for the moment I'm not in the money! People have been saying it won't go any lower since 39p. I'm agreed on the future stability and recovery of ENQ as a play and will increase my shares and trading positions as it looks sensible. I'm not in any way suggesting there's a problem with ENQ itself.

KO, here's a prediction based on charts. Barc SP will fall to 150 or lower. Until that's in, it'll be wise to be very careful about long positions.

KO odd comment earlier as you sometimes talk about TA to support your arguments about the future. Here's one for you. FTSE is breaking down, it will probably go lower, that will mean the stocks making up the FTSE will fall (overall). It's not voodoo.

History is the interesting thing, in so many areas, we've had so long to learn and yet we repeat the same mistakes over and over again. That's human nature, that cannot change, Socrates was moaning about the 'youth of today' in the same way we do. Nothing changes, take advantage of that!!

Spin, it's easy to get insular about everything you've said (I'm not suggesting you are, but some certainly are). It's not just the UK, really! It's the same elsewhere. It's not like the UK is struggling with it's historical policies but other countries are Eutopia? And all this talk about the new government making things worse makes me think about kindergarten. Everything takes time. They'll achieve what they aim to achieve or they won't, but you cannot decide on how successful they've been when they've only been in office for a few days. Really, do some of you not have better things to do? KO, do you work? If you do, how do you have time to sit watch share bull 'sh' ittin boards all day? Eveyrthing takes a certain amount of time, understanding time, helps to understand most other things.

A break up beyond 329/330 is perhaps worth paying attention to. Simply the 20eMA on the 2h chart, but no 2h period has closed above it since Sept 7th.

I thought it worth a punt and got in at 316 area. Some evidence on the chart that we might see a bit of upside, I'll be more active on this and could add, but will almost certainly close out frequently.

Yes Chilt, which makes some sense, but the tight association between spot brent and our SP makes less sense. Best to try to see the future possibilities and position accordingly.

Yes KO I do, and I also think I've done ok guessing what's coming recently. No, I don't watch the Simpson's, at least not frequently.

I posted the following under the thread 'unbelievable' Sept 23 14:06.
"in the near term if we don't close at 27 or above it looks like we have series of stacked possibilities (to stop the rot) around 24 to 25.5"

That didn't take long did it. Not pretty at all.

Indeed, but HBR, TLW and HTG have been hit harder. We've dropped roughly with Shell and BP. If you're going to drop, that's good company to drop with

I have Brent at 85 bang on a technical support on the weekly chart from Oct 2021. 84 would have on support on the weekly chart from Oct 2018, perhaps that area will hold. I do have to say that it's starting to look a bit dodgy though. Depending on where you draw your trendlines on the weekly chart, you could argue that we've already broken down (that could see us a fair bit lower; maybe 70?) or that if we close above 88, we could with rose tinted glasses believe that the brent oil had held the trendline). I'm afraid for my money, oil is likely to drop further. That would probably bring our SP down further. It's just dots on charts, but things don't look great. You could argue that indicators are permissive of an upside move, but as the old addage goes 'price first'.