Member Info for Stupmy

I had thought the risk of 20p was receding, but it's clearly not. A close below 20p would be a worry, but that level appears to be back in play. Spot Brent showing some weakness again today. Could that really be why ENQ SP is dropping

the chart looks bad. Prevous weekly low was around 270/275, we're close to that now. Below that I don't see any thing to base ideas about when the SP might change direction (except indicators). Ideally I'd like to see a finish today of 292 or above (that's a weekly finish) to give some hope that the fall is over.

They have.

I agree skier, I think just over 200 is very likely, lower is possible.

All sounds very clever Stevo, I'd still like a bottom on the EPL!

It's weird isn't it, banks are in the business of making money in a pretty pure way. HSBC has some problems in China, so you'd imagine they'd want to counter those potential losses with profits elsewhere. I'd imagine it will lead to a contraction of the lending base (ça coule de source), which as you say AIM, might give cash generative businesses an edge over those looking for funding. Fingers crossed!

Something doesn't look good just at the moment. Selling intot the close is accelerating.

Ì've just opened a new long position. Some strength showing into the last hour today. I think we have unfinished business that will the SP hit or exceed 129.

Fro me there is some evidence that 420 is where money is coming into this market. If that continues to be the case then it's another higher low which is suggestive of a trend change. So we had a low of 388, then a higher low of 415ish, now it seems 418-420 is being 'defended', i.e. some buyers are coming at that level. There's no clear evidence that will hold for now, but it's worth remembering that Spoons' energy costs are pretty well hedged which is going to give them a significant advantage over some competitors. There's very 'light' evidence that a rising tl is forming (Oct 3rd, Dec 12, Dec 14). A close below that line (currently around 421/422 would encourag sellers and then you'd be looking at 415/416 (previous low) and then 388. Nothing is impossible and everything is risky. I'm looking for a buy signal at the moment with a view to increasing my long position, but I'm trading it rather than investing in it.

Brent is strengthening further and I can't see any technical reason for further drift to the downside. However, I would keep that 14p level in mind personally, just can't see how that could come into play at the moment. It looks like we have date with 23.75 and around 25.2 in the near future as long as oil doesn't sell off again or we don't get some negative news. After that 29.25 looks likely with a bit of momentum. I'll buy again if technical indicators start looking for upside again.

For the moment Herman, the SP does appear to have rejected 22.5 (desceding TL resistance on the 2h chart). I suspect it will break that level and brent is maintaining it's rise for now. I'll not add again today, but am very tempted to do so again tomorrow. I think we will turn to the upside. Whether we get the santa rally or not I don't know.

I was hoping to see 27 or more. We haven't, running up to christmas, historically I've found it a mistke to accumulate too much. I'll have to head out before market close so I'l shut out CPI at a profit of something over a penny. I still think it will rise, maybe we'll get the santa rally, but I also see a good chance the price will drop below 24 and that might happen before the upside. So GLA, I'll close and take my profit (it's already less than a penny since I started typing) and try to enter again at or below 24.

Looks likely to me also. I'll buy more today assuming it doesn't gap up in some sort of crazy fashion. Brent continuing up overnight. Looks like turn to the upside

October update was very upbeat and the SP is almost back to where it was before that update. Seems that the spot price for oil is being used to mark down HTG's SP, but that doesn't make a lot sense as the lead time for bringing projects on is months and years not days. I'd have thought that the moment HTG had running up to October has been maintained so I'd imagine the update on Thursday should be in-line with expectations which, if it's true would seem to have the SP 40-50p too low.

35.85 was a previous low from Oct 20th. Between that and 34.5 area could represent a support. There's preliminary evidence that some buying has started at 35.85 area. That's speculative for the moment so it would be risky to join the buying here. If the price was to close below 34.5, 28.5 and lower levels come into play. As a very speculative position it looks worth a punt at these levels although I'll wait before deciding. Lot's of debt with falling POO isn't a great mix.

Well todays weakness seems to bring 425 into focus as a quite likely next stop on this drop. If 433 holds to close of play today I guess that might reduce the chance of further drops, but I fear it won't. I have a small long trade that is not working out for the moment and I'm going to hedge it with an equal and opposite short trade to lock in a maximum loss, but with a view to things improving here in the future.

For the moment price is sat on a theoretical line of support but it doesn't look likely to hold. We're at 309.5 but the price looks like to move down to 300/301 in the near future. I just had a quick look and Marshal Wace are the only people shorting DARK above 0.5 %. They are currently reported at 0.51%. Almost like they're making a statement that we're here and we remain short but we don't have that much conviction (or spare cash).

There are no reported shorts above .5% which suggests that institutions are not looking at us too negatively. Maybe what we currently have is neutral to negative drift simply based on POO, thin markets, end of year etc.

With the price having now dipped to 240ish it's really hanging by a thread. 235 or lower looks increasingly likely. As long as it's followed by a bounce/sustained rise, the patient amongst us are likely to do well. There are no guarantees in this world though and the POO still looks fragile.

Could just be people dropping it before news. Always very difficult to know what an update will say. Out of hours surprises often lead to 20-40% drops in SP and you can't control it as the price opens down. That's just common sense. For the broker notes, they're also difficult to understand and rely on. Very often the SP doesn't seem connected at all to the views of the brokers, which shows that the significant players in the market are not in-line with the views of the brokers. Maybe an institution is reducing?