Member Info for Stupmy

That should worry us all Modestus. Should Labour be elected. In my view the ENQ SP will fall to 14p or lower. The fixed term Parliaments act has already been scrapped, so an election can be called by the incumbents at any time. The latest it could be would be Jan 24th 2025. It would be reassuring to see a change in Labour policy before that time.

I closed that one out yesterday for a moderate profit, but today the price action makes it increasingly likely that the SP might get to 21.4/21.5. I've sold 30% of my trading position to book the profit in case that happens. Wouldn't be much point calling it a trading position if I didn't trade it according to my view of what's likely. I've not sold any shares.

Thanks, it's possible these small movements apparently linked to spot oil price are based on the activities of computers. They have been eerily predictable recently. By that I mean, that when there has been an opportunity for a technically linked movement, it's happened a lot more frequently than not. My views are not related to the fundamentals of the company.

I'm looking more carefully now the price has exceeded 36.75 to the downside. I'm looking to re-enter, but would suggest that 34.75 is not unlikely and if that was achieved, we'd be looking at a retest of the low from Dec 16th at around 34.25/34.3. If POO steadies or rises, then these lower possiblities my recede a bit at least in the near term.

I dropped out at 39ish for various reasons. One of them was that it seemed likely to me that we'd drop back to around 36.75 or lower. That seems more likely now that POO is again showing some weakness.

Well, we've now touched 111 and the initial response was to reject that level. Anytime from now, it seems to be a speculative buy. Safer to wait for evidence that the bottom is in though.

Dumbly/Papegoja, thanks for the discussion. As I say I've no legal experience, it just doesn't seem like a tax on excess profit without a floor. It seems like an additional tax on all profit. Like most of us, I don't like it one bit.

I like to think that UK government has legal council and that it refers to that council when it imposes new legislation. However, I suspect that the EPL will turn out to be illegal or at the very least indefensible in a court of law. The very term Excess would seem to me to require a reference point (i.e. baseline or floor). I think it's Shell that are challenging the UK EPL. My guess is that that without a floor they will win, so at the very least they will force a floor. At that point, as someone suggested yesterday, the SP here will move to the upside to account for it (assuming the floor isn't 50 dollars!).
I have no specific legal knowledge, so it's common sense the way I see it.

I bought a few more on the pull back. Not to hold, just because it looks very likely to give a reasonably fast profit. I've got enough as far as medium term holding is concerned. Just thought I might be able to make enough to take the family out over the weekend so added a little short term punt.

On the 2h chart the SP is now sitting on top of the 200sMA at around 22.5/22.6. That could be a back test, that might lead to further gains. Whether the price holds that level or not, it looks to me that we will see the prices I mentioned earlier.

Indeed Jan, and there's also that thing that one of our Swedish colleauges brought up about a boost to SP in the early part of each year! It's all to play for!

Fingers crossed January. I'm thinking 23.75 is very likely and 25.25 is pretty likely, but in reality I'd personally like the price to challenge the previous highs around 39/40. Sadly wanting something to happen and it being likely to happen are not always the same thing. Let's hope we get the 25.25 and watch the price action around there for some further clues as to where next.

Looking at the chart now, I'm not that sure why I said 115/116. Looks more likely it'll get to 111/112

I use 2 h charts a lot and the SP is now touching or about to touch the 200sMA. SP dropped below that in Nove 2022, and has not been above it since. In fact for most of the interval from early Nov to now, the SP has been nowhere near it. If the SP were to close above it (i.e. above current SP of 22.65, then 23.75 (gap close on 2h chart) minimum seems likely. If price exceeded 23.75 (close in any 2h period) then 25 becomes much more likely as a potential technical resistance, but there's also an additional gap that might encourage buyers to continue buying. That would close at 25.25ish, which corresponds with what could be strong resistance. For my money, I think we're going to see 25.25 reasonably soon (without bad news or significant falls in POO).

In theory analysts are working out price targets based on a thorough understanding of the business and the macro-economic climate. Not (as I do) based upon what's happenning between buyers and sellers on any particular day/week. That should give some level of stability to their estimates. I just find it frustrating that their estimates swing around like a bog door with the Tijuana Quickstep in down

What a crazy world. It's hard to have any confidence in broker notes when the change so fast and aparently without reason.
SP is currently 22.1. At 22.15/22.2 you could argue we have a decision point. Brent is on the up again at nearly 85 (Ig Markets data). Would not be surprised to see a retest of 21.3/21.4 (possibly lower), but will not attempt to take advantage of it as even if the price drops back a little, it seems to be on the forward foot in general. Fingers crossed we'll get the Jan/Feb rally called for by one of our Swedish colleagues (sorry I've forgotten the name)

Velo, regarding your comment below, I have the same gut feeling. The way they write their RNS's reminds me of boiler shop tactics. Something smells bad to me. The latest one with so much 'sat least .....', looks very shaky again

'until I can figure out what the rip-off is here'

Agreed Velo, and I already know about him all the way from Northern Rock. Calling him a lifelong shorter though is off the mark. He's long and short. I follow his tips in citywire (although I don't trade them). He's often wrong, his timing is often dreadful, but he's a good read and I have to say I like him.
As you say his comment that Dark is a short at 257 comes with not rationale. I have no further info on his view, just thought I'd make people aware. According to many on here, calling it short when the price is 'so far below' the value of the company, would seem to be a reckless move. Only time will tell.
CR888 do you take lithium in your coffee every morning?

Has Dark as a sell at 257

DARK's RNS's really are dreadfully written. They sell the results like a gypsy selling wooden spoons.

Well we tested 260 and exceeded my downside of 254. Closing price today will be very interesting.