Member Info for Stupmy

Couldn't resist, I think it's cabin fever. Have entered long a very small position. If I can protect that, I'll consider adding. Not looking to hold over results.

ND, for me it's still holding support and could go up or down. I don't like holding things over results, particularly where there's a big downside gap that'll probably be filled at some point. I'm struggling to find compelling trades at the moment and am twiddling my fingers. I've taken on a couple that are not compelling, in fact they look less compelling since I took them on. I'm watching this one hoping for a good opportunity for a 3rd long entry, but until the results are out I doubt I'll do anything.

We've had a pop back up that could very well just be a technical thing. I'm still in, but suspect the drop isn't finished. If it looks as if this little rise off the low is a real rejection of the 106/107 area then I'll consider increasing. For the moment I'm very cautious.

For me, focus on the debt while the POO is high. Divis can wait. At least TLW are not hamstrung by the Tax regime in the UK although I guess Ghana's way of doing it is also not easy.

I'm liking that Jan, 14 is giving me ulcers!

Sorry about that Jan, not sure I 'cut it to 14', but I do think that has become much more likely now. I've not sold a share, but regret that. So much for the Jan/Feb rise that we discussed previously. No sign of that just yet. In the last 5 years (from memory, that had at least started by last week of Feb.

Like the UK government with their EPL!

Glad I didn't rush into that! Still waiting. I've been expecting a wider market correction for a little while and it's starting to look as though it's happening now.

With POO at around 80, then we can clear our debt and any money ploughed into our NS assetst o maintain our production profile will save us on tax and generate a profit of 25% of the difference between cost and sale. That would still make us a viable company, but it would hamstring us with respect to diversifying out of the UK. For me, that's a big issue. I doubt I'll add further here until we've seen 14 p or lower.

It's starting to look increasingly likely that we will see or exceed my downside suggestion of 14p. Who would have believed that?

We're getting a lower low now, which means in all probability that I have jumped the gun. I do have 'some' support to suggest it will close above 111, but it's not that great.

I'm bored and not finding good trades. Maybe that makes the next few iffy, but I'm starting to get interested in the chart for TLW. Possible that buyers are going to get the upper hand soon. I've my fingers on the trigger.

So bored, not finding anything much to trade. So this might just be a bad move based on lack of action, but I've entered here again at 114. The more I look at the chart, the less convincing it looks, but at some point I think 135 + and 148 + are feasible.

I think it would be wise to remain cautious of the downside being finished. I dropped out on the last rise and am looking to re-enter. However the SP is again looking to test support around 611 (2h chart). It's repetitively tested it from Nov 21st. When the price does that and gets sold into at lower and lower levels. I increases the likelyhood that that 611 area will fail. If it does, I think the SP will drop to 485 or below. You were talking about gaps to the upside I believe. I don't see any until 1172 area. I don't think we need to consider that for the moment. The gap I'd worry about would be the large downside gap. There is selling pressure here and Chilting has highlighted the increased short interest. It seems to me that there is a belief that the results will not impress. I personally would be very cautious for the moment. I have no holding after my last sell around 645.

Do you not think that the problem is, that by the time we're debt free we'll need to borrow money to diversify away from the UK, because we'll only be holding onto 25% of whatever profit we make. If POO drops, that could make diversification without borrowing quite tricky. Unless a floor is put in place on the recent 35% tax hike (that might make it an EPL and it currently is not) we look exposed to the elements. I think that this elevated tax level should put us off investing in our UK assets unless we have a good idea that something will improve on that front.

From memory BG made about 70 million which was peanuts when broken down on profit per customer. But the bulk of the profit was from O&G production. I don't follow that closely enough to know where those profits come from. They claimed to have paid 1 billion in tax though I think. That's still only 25% so nothing like what we're being hit with.

I was a bit flip Spin. I don't understand that side of business, was just thinking about the suggestion of 0.1p a share. I don't need that kind of petulent. Sorry, was not intending to undermine your view.
I feel strongly about what this tax raise has done to us as shareholders. It's very significant, or will be in the next 2 years or so. For the moment the idea is that it rests in place (and unchanged) until 2028. That's a big problem for us and personally I would not be surprised to see ENQ change it's priorities. What's the point investing for the medium term with the expectation of 75% tax and someone earlier suggested 90%? I'd be looking at leveraging value out of assets in lower tax regimes.

Yeah, I could do without that sort of petulent.

I agree, we need to get the company in strong position. If new debt is a lot cheaper than what we're currrently carrying, then continuing to pay it down is still sensible I guess. I do think though that the 75% tax rate (it isn't an EPL as there is no base, it's just a raised level of tax) could be a trap that makes it difficult to buy significant assets outside the UK without taking on further debt. If that debt is cheaper then maybe it can be made to work ok.

The EPL is a stinker. We're focussed on getting rid of debt so over the next 2 years in theory we're going to do that and use up our Tax credits. At which point we will move from 35% tax (EPL) to 75% tax. To put money (profit or off-set for the EPL) into British O&G assets is a lot less attractive as we'll be retaining only 25% of the profit generated. If POO drops that might not be much profit at all. So we need to change the balance of our portfolio to favour non-UK assets. However, in order to buy them/explore for them we may have to take on additional debt which is exactly what we've been working so hard to avoid. It's a nasty vicious circle induced by this tory government where we can save on the EPL by investing in the UK, but that will leave us with assets that generate profits where 75% is lost to tax. A labour government under Starmer is threatening to increase the tax burder further so that possibility isn't helpful to us. Assuming POO stays at 80 or more is risky, all assumptions are inherently risky. I think it's put us in a significantly weaker position and I wonder whether bring our debt down is still the priority it once was. Maybe we should be using the profit now while we have some protection from our tax credits to rebalance our portfolio away from the UK.