Member Info for stt1

Geordie,

"Lack of revenue growth, I think all of 2024 revenue is booked already"

It obviously would be.

Because of the timescale to setup the projects, they always will say around 90-95% revenue already booked and visibility into the following year.

Look at previous rns, January 2023, so 11 months ago.

They said over 95% revenue booked for 2023 and visibility into 2024.

"Over 95% of 2023 revenue guidance contracted and visibility into 2024"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/w9j9mdx

"But my guess is its considerably higher than the current year !"

Again, that is said every year. Where have they significantly exceeded their revenue guidance for the year?

Last year they had revenues of £50.7m

In July they said revenue expectations for fy2023 were £53m:

"Based on the current guided timeline for approvals and hVIVO's contingency plans, the Company reaffirms its guidance of £53 million in revenue for 2023

Based on the current guided timeline for approvals and hVIVO's contingency plans, the Company reaffirms its guidance of £53 million in revenue for 2023

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export

Today they say it's slightly ahead of expectations, so maybe £54m.

"The Company is pleased to report that trading has continued to be strong across the Group, with revenue slightly ahead of previous market expectations."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xj70qkx/export

Fy2022 £50.3m to fy2023 £53m

They supposed to be a fast growing company, so where's the significant revenue growth? Even allowing for excluding non-core.

Shandy,

"Just remember he said TLY is a better company - how is that going?"

TLY is a better company than HVO. Significantly better, so I've been adding to my holding there.

I made around 100% on EZJ, within a 4 month period. Shorted Housebuilders and then traded when majority were bullish. Lloyds, MKS to name but a few.

Posted red flags on Trmr when they were over 800p, now 170p

Posted red flags on Byot when they were around 10p, now 0.6p

Posted red flags on Rthm when they were 590p (new money), crashed to 100p

My posting history is all there for readers to see.

Geordie,

"the more attractive the SP becomes to private investors and II's"

Maybe. There's no evidence of significant buying by IIs since July, despite what people have been saying.

The red flags for me remain.

Huge options for the CEO but none for the other directors.

Those options due for exercise in just over a year.

Obviously as those huge options are due to be exercised in just over a year, the company will be talked up.

Huge Shares on Loan

Lack of revenue growth.

Questionable business model.

Hallsworthy,

TLY v HVO.

Liberum have a 29p target price, so potentially only a 30% upside.

TLY 4.9p

TLY definately better upside than HVO. I'd say the upside in TLY is more than triple that of HVO.

There's evidence of IIs increasing their TLY holdings.

Do some research.

Read the company/sector newflow.

You have to be naive to base your research solely on brokers. Both Cavendish and Liberum are company brokers.

It is their duty to promote the company.

According to Liberum, HVO target price is 29p. They previously had a tp of 27p, yet the sp has not reached that level in 2-3 years.

Geordie

"Cavendish analysts have set a target share price of 35p "

Cavendish used to be Finncap. They used to have a 44p target price before it was dropped to 35p (ex DiM). Yet over the past 2-3years, the sp has never gone anywhere near that price.

Mijaed

"what's the big deal about a couple of million cost's must have been large"

The new facility was largely funded by customers.

The are supposedly been very busy, new projects etc.

They are now supposed to be receiving money from Polb as well.

You would expect cash to increase substantially. Yet it's decreasing.

If it's down to increased staffing costs before the new facility is live, then those costs will increase significantly once the new facility is up and running.

So it does matter.

Rivaldo,

"Forecast net cash at the end of this month is increased to £28.4m"

The company had net cash of £31.3m end of June.

The new facilities are largely being funded by customers. Where's the cash generation?

"The kit out at Canary Wharf is going to be far more costly than the Boutique Hotel, so was there someone with deeper pockets willing to stump up more cash to keep their pipeline of vaccines/antivirals at the front of the queue "

That makes no sense.

The company said the new facility is largely customer led funding. If AZ weren't a customer then they wouldn't have provided any funding. IF they are now a customer, other customers who agreed to provide funding aren't going to sit back and let another customer jump the queue.

Given AZ possibly took over a HVO customer, the risk is that AZ could cancel any HVO contracts.

How do you know the kitting out is going to be far more costly? The company supposed to have £31m in the bank then surely they could fund it.

Also if the kitting out of Canary Wharf is going to be far more costly then it brings into question the BoD's ability to calculate costs, which would be a red flag.

From the rns when they announced the new facility:

"The increase in demand from multiple clients seeking to accelerate their studies and preparedness for potentially larger challenge trials has resulted in a significant level of customer-led funding for the new facility."

A red flag is that the CEO (now ex-) left, immediately without notice period, just 4 days before H1 end.

Any skeletons in the cupboard?

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/27.09.23-Directorate-Change.pdf

Huge red flag is their severe cash shortage position and inability to raise cash.

The company's TU showed they have severe cash shortage and therefore are likely to run out soon.

"Our cash position remains tight, but is sufficient to finance current operations, assuming some noncore cost cutting, some reduction in investment, and expected and (in some cases accelerated)

receipts of cash from (already-contracted) IP transactions. "

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023.11.13_Trading_Update.pdf

The assumption they mentioned in the TU didn't happen. So they are likely to run out of cash soon.

https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023.12.07_Interim_Results.pdf

"We know that Fleming, Liontrust, Fleming have all been selling!"

Can you provide evidence of TR1 since fy results were published in July?.

On 3rd Oct, just 2 months ago, Liontrust increased their holding. Can you provide evidence Liontrust have been selling since they increased?

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/60322

According to TLY's website, there are over 90m shares owned by IIs, around 46%.

https://www.totallyplc.com/investors/shareholder-information/shareholdings/

From Investor Presentation:

No intention of placing.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/totally-plc/register-investor

"As this mysterious illness continues to spread globally following an outbreak in China, many are starting to draw parallels to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic."

It's winter, it is normal to have pneumonia/flu outbreaks.

2 days ago:

Experts say it's NOT linked to China, Europe.

"Ohio "white lung" pneumonia cases not linked to China outbreak or novel pathogen, experts say"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ohio-white-lung-pneumonia-not-linked-to-china-outbreak-novel-pathogen-experts/

TooGoodtoDie,

lol, I see you're still posting rubbish.

Why's that interesting?

There's no evidence of TLY's dermatology contract with Lancastershire is worth 'majority of £15m'.

This from their rns in 2019. Mentions only 1 CCG but gives an idea of how much a 12 month extension was worth £795k

"About Health has been awarded a 12-month contract extension with NHS East Lancashire Clinical Commissioning Group ("East Lancashire CCG") to provide community dermatology services. This contract is worth c.GBP795,000."

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/37502

This from their fy showing mix of revenues within division.

Elective Care, which now includes planned total revenue £35m.

-- Electives care revenue almost doubled to GBP35.2 million (2022: GBP17.8 million) with gross margin increasing to 19.8% (2022: 18.4%). Excluding the impact of acquired revenue in FY22 (GBP12 million) organic growth was 21%.

-- Urgent Care revenue decreased 10% to GBP98.8 million (2022: GBP109.2 million) as four contracts in North West London came to an end; with gross margin stable at 17.6% (2023 17.7%).

-- Corporate wellbeing revenue of GBP1.7 million (2022: GBP0.3 million) with gross margin increasing to 41.5% (2022: 31.9%). Excluding the impact of acquired revenue in FY22 (c. GBP1.2 million) organic growth was 40%.

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/58550

In Investor presentation, they stated that EC represented 30% of total revenue (Pioneer, elective surgery, is 25%). Therefore ex Pioneer, EC (old planned care) is 5% of total revenue. Dermatology is only 1 part of planned care.

So 5% of ex-Pioneer is around £5m-£7m.

How is dermatology worth 'majority of £15m'?

Keep trying TooGood2Die.

Twogoodtodie,

"says it all"

You're clueless about investing and corporate governance. Keep up.

Note 'corporate governance' and '9 years'

Bob Holt joined TLY in 2015 and is leaving in 2024, so 9 years. He's leaving in line with corporate governance, which is exactly what they have stated!!

TLY:

"In line with corporate governance requirements, having spent nine years as a Director of Totally, I will step down from the Board at the end of 2023. I am pleased to confirm that Simon Stilwell will be joining our Board as a non-executive director effective today and taking over as Chairman of Totally plc from 1 January 2024. The Company intends to make further Board changes over the coming months in line with best corporate governance standards."

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/60861

IOD:

"According to the UK Corporate Governance Code, the recommended tenure limit for the chair is 9 years. There is no recommended tenure for non-executive directors – but after 9 years they are no longer considered independent. In many instances, this acts as a ‘de facto’ ceiling on tenure."

https://www.iod.com/resources/blog/governance/how-long-should-a-director-serve-on-a-board/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20UK%20Corporate,de%20facto'%20ceiling%20on%20tenure.

Interims tomorrow, Investor presentation Thurs, 11am

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/totally-plc/register-investor

TwoGoodtoDie,

"How is that as you just stated as a 'FACT' institutional investors haven't been selling so whose been pushing the share price down?

Come on Sikthetech you've just contradicted yourself!"

No contradiction. It is a FACT that there isn't any evidence of significant selling by IIs or funds. Prove me wrong and post the TR1s published since the fy results, July-end of Oct.

"NHS 111 operator Totally to slash costs as third-party healthcare suppliers struggle"

All healthcare providers, including Spire Healthcare, which you are ramping and NHS, are suffering from staffing issues and increased costs. It's nothing new.

Try researching the sector.

Once striking doctors return to work and staffing is addressed, NHS waiting lists will reduce.

Spire Health:

"One of the biggest challenges for our sector is the shortage of skilled healthcare staff in the UK and internationally. This places pressure on our

costs, especially when it comes to agency usage, and can limit capacity."

https://www.spirehealthcare.com/media/29007/spire-healthcare-quality-account-2022-23.pdf

"However, the business said it still expects to meet the financial targets it set out last month."

I've already posted that.

"expect future dividends to be cut its on the cards."

I see the dividend as a bonus. It doesn't bother me if it is cut and I'm expecting it will be.

The whole point of investing is to get more right than wrong. Trmr, Rthm, Nano, TW/PSN, etc etc where I've been right. TLY is only 1 share.

I expect we might see a capital reorganisation, given the sp has been forced to below the 10p nominal value.

Hopefully, the company will take the opportunity to move to the main market.

We'll know soon enough.

So far, the facts are:

fy period, revenue, cash, adj Ebitda

2023 £135.7m, £6.5m, £6.9m

No evidence of significant selling by IIs, no TR1s - around 47% held by IIs, with Liontrust adding some early Oct.

Dividend paid - total fy2023 was 0.625p per share

All AGM resolutions passed, vast majority unanimously. 91m, which is around the total held by IIs.

1st Sept - AGM statement - reiterates fy TU

"The Board's outlook for the current financial year remains consistent with that communicated alongside the full year results of the Company in July 2023."

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/59914

10th July - fy results

"Post period update

The Board anticipates revenue in the year ahead to be lower than in the period to 31 March 2023. EBITDA is expected to be marginally below the period to 31 March 2023 reflecting improved margin driven by higher volumes in elective care, and the continued management and reduction of overhead spend. "

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/100/58550

Revenues by division for fy2023:

Electives care revenue almost doubled to GBP35.2 million (2022: GBP17.8 million) with gross margin increasing to 19.8% (2022: 18.4%). Excluding the impact of acquired revenue in FY22 (GBP12 million) organic growth was 21%.

Urgent Care revenue decreased 10% to GBP98.8 million (2022: GBP109.2 million) as four contracts in North West London came to an end; with gross margin stable at 17.6% (2023 17.7%).

Corporate wellbeing revenue of GBP1.7 million (2022: GBP0.3 million) with gross margin increasing to 41.5% (2022: 31.9%). Excluding the impact of acquired revenue in FY22 (c. GBP1.2 million) organic growth was 40%.

MCAP: £12.2m