Member Info for stt1

Totally Awarded Key NHS Contract Extension Valued at £13 Million

"In a significant development for UK healthcare,

Totally (TLY), a premier provider of frontline healthcare services, has been granted a noteworthy extension to its contract with NHS England. "

"The contract, initially set at around £10 million per annum, was first announced on 16 January 2023. The extension, effective from 16 February 2024, marks a substantial increase in value and commitment, reflecting the growing demand for NHS 111 services."

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/totally-awarded-key-nhs-contract-extension-valued-at-13-million-efb424e/

Persimmon warns of 'uncertain' housing market but selling prices rise

Persimmon expects the UK property market to remain 'highly uncertain' this year, particularly for first-time buyers, as a general election looms.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12946257/Persimmon-warns-uncertain-housing-market-selling-prices-rise.html

These are company and Company broker announcements and show declining cash.

They also show lack of strong revenue growth.

Cash:

30th June 2023 £31.3m

Expected cash Dec 31st 2024: £28m

July TU:

"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export

Revenue:

The forecast for fy2024 is £60m

fy2022 £50m

efy2023 £55m

efy2024 £60m

Where's the substantial revenue growth?

Fy2023:

H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%

"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w

fy24:

Brokers expecting £60m

So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m.

BillB,

""To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you.""

There you go, yesterday down on a few tiny sells, up today on a few chunkier buys. That's what happens with illiquid shares.

A massive 30% uplift to the original contract as well.

It's a national contract as well, not restricted to ICB, local health bodies.

It proves the detractors wrong. The NHS isn't abandoning TLY.

NHS would have done a risk assessment and the fact TLY have been granted

New contracts signed over the past year and contract extensions.

£13m contract extension.

£10m Mcap.

BillB,

"To take the time to give us a mention when TLY is down another few % today is good of you."

Yes, I noticed, down 5% at 4.62p.

Have you seen the tiny trades, majority under £5 each? Who would make a trade of £1-£5?? That's the thing about shares which are illiquid, they move both ways very quickly on small trades. I'm sure there'll be a similar surge upwards soon once they issue a TU.

Anyway, looks like HVO has stalled around the 26p mark for a week.

The sp hasn't moved on over the past week (it was around 26p a week ago).

Previously, the so has been:

Dec 2020 22p

Dec 2021 24p

Dec 2022 10.20p

Feb 2023 21.5p

Dec 2023 23.75p

Given the sudden interest over the past few weeks, no TU from the company and the CEO's huge 7m options, I think it's been talked up.

Given the current company newsflow and my bear points:

No evidence of significant buying by institutions.

No evidence of significant holdings by institutions,

Huge options, 7m, held by CEO,

declining cash,

revenue growth has slowed,

huge shares on loan,

missed expectations,

questionable business model,

etc

I think the current potential is factored into the price, 26.75p.

If traders now move to sell or PIs take more then the sp can fall quickly, as it's done before. Look at last year's graph or when the sp was in the 40s, the sp crashed back down.

Let's see...

Why hasn't anyone presented the bull case for these at 26p?

DavidHos,

"I suspect it’s a couple of buys for the same buyer worked over the previous 2-3 trading days"

Exactly. Churning by the same group. I've seen it several times on various shares.

The hundreds of small trades to move the sp.

It was really obvious at TLY, where there were hundreds of small trades to push the sp lower. Yet there's only a handful of PIs.

GeordieChris,

"Surely few people are selling now that the stock has momentum and sentiment is firmly back....Anyone any ideas?"

It's been talked up. There hasn't been any TU to justify such a rise, just lots of media tips. Why the sudden interest this year? The CEO's huge 7m options are exercisable in a year.

The sp is at around previous year's year end closing price, hence why some are selling. Look at last year, in Feb the sp was 21.5p before it fell during the year, only to end the end at similar sp.

Previous closing sp:

Dec 2020 22p

Dec 2021 24p

Dec 2022 10.20p

Feb 2023 21.5p

Dec 2023 23.75p

Thordon,

Good summary.

"its the mix that is attractive with 5 clients in UK & Northern Ireland & Southern Ireland."

They don't have 5 clients. They have 5 Nations that they provide their services in. In fact, they have dozens of clients and potential clients for Urgent Care division.

The 5 Nations - all 4 UK Nations plus Republic of Ireland.

Each of the 4 UK Nations have their own NHS.

Each of the 4 UK Nations has lots of 'local health bodies'. NHS England has 42 ICBs as follows:

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/find-your-local-integrated-care-board/

Each ICB has it's own funds, which it uses for the services they require. This is after they have paid for mandatory services, as required by the government.

Each of the UK Nations has similar 'local NHS Bodies'

There are over 60 such 'local NHS Bodies' across all 4 UK Nations. That's over 60 client/potential clients.

TLY also provide services to HMP. There are over 100 HMPs in UK.

TLY also provide services for Elective Care, higher margin business. Here they have dozens of clients/potential clients, including Republic of Ireland.

TLY also provide services to Company Wellness Services. The number of clients/potential clients can be in the 100s.

This is the power of their diversified business model.

UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024

Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105

"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."

"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.

Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.

The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year

UK house prices rise again but Halifax forecasts up to 4% drop in 2024

Growth rates driven by shortage of properties on market, says mortgage lender, with typical home worth £287,105

"However, Halifax said that the monthly, quarterly and annual growth rates were driven by a shortage of properties on the market rather than strong buyer demand."

"However, analysts at Goldman Sachs have estimated that UK homeowners are facing a £19bn increase in mortgage costs by the end of next year as millions more fixed-rate deals expire, putting additional strain on household finances.

Halifax still expects house prices to fall by up to 4% this year as high interest rates and inflation stretch mortgage affordability.

The lender said that the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% this year, despite a new year mortgage rate-cutting spree by major lenders."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/05/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-month-in-row-but-are-forecast-to-drop-this-year

Hallsworthy

"Nice to see River and Mercantile have taken an opening position of 2.53% or 6.6m shares."

Really?

2.53% with 6.6m shares?? How do you work that out given there are around 680m shares in issue?

The CEO has 7m options. So, according to your calculation, does his options equal 2.5% off the company?

The CEO's 7m options are more than R&M shareholding. That says a lot.

The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the

Company.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export

StrinctlyZinc

"maybe this is where meaningful II ownership takes off."

Backs up my opinion that this is being talked up.

The CEO's has huge 7m options which are exercisable in a year.

Lack of strong revenue growth.

Declining cash.

No evidence of significant holdings by institutions.

No evidence of significant buying by institutions.

Kilman

"On the share register on hVivo(updated 13th December) it lists Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management as having 3.19% ownership"

You mentioned Canaccord Wealth Management.

Canaccord is TLY's Nomad.

Canaccord also own over 3% of TLY.

Canaccord had a 30p target on TLY, compared to HVO Nomad's target of 29p.

The Nomads are closer to the business than media and PIs.

"if you anonymised the financial accounts of hVivo and TLY and provided them to 100 investors and asked them where they would put there money. "

Investors look for potential.

The vast majority of potential in HVO is already factored into the price. The Nomad target price is 29p.

With TLY, the vast majority of downside is already factored into the price. The potential is not.

Investors look for shares where there's best potential.

TLY's Nomad, Canaccord had a 30p target price on TLY.

HVO's Nomad, Liberum a 29p target price on HVO.

Using the Nomad target prices:

HVO's upside is majority factored in the price.

TLY's upside is around 500%

Kilman,

Thanks for the II holding figures.

It proves my point, there is no evidence of significant buying or holdings by institutions.

The number held are mainly 1-2%, which is hardly significant.

Now my other point about the huge options held by the CEO:

The CEO's was granted huge options of 7m, around 1%, exercisable in a year, so his options are around the same number held by institutions!!!

If posters say the CEO's options are not huge then the number held by institutions aren't either, are they?.

If posters say the number held by institutions is huge then the number of options held by CEO must also be considered huge.

The shares on loan were around 1.5%. Therefore, the same posters must believe the number of shares is huge as well.

The posters can't have it both ways.

BTW, Liontrust also increased their holding in TLY, post H1.

They own 5.25% of TLY.

For holdings declared > 3%, around 40% of TLY is held by institutionS, holding > 3% each.

Hallsworthy,

Kilman posted his opinions in reply to my bear points.

You don't have an answer and are incapable of answering, which is why you answer with questions.

Try countering the bear points.

CEO has huge 7m options, exercisable in a year. CF bought some at 26p 2.5 years. I'm saying the company is being talked up so the CEO can exercise the huge options.

What's your opinion?

There's no evidence of significant buying by institutions during 2021, 2022, 2023.

Can you provide evidence, TR1s, to counter this?

There's no evidence of institutionS holding > 3%

Can you provide evidence of institutionS holding > 3%?

Cash declined since fy2023, despite money coming in from Polb since Sept and the selling by warrant holders.

Can you provide evidence that cash has increased?

Huge number of shares on Loan.

Can you provide evidence that there hasn't been a huge number of shares on loan?

Lack of strong revenue growth. Despite the company supposedly growing strongly, there's a lack of strong revenue growth.

Can you provide evidence of strong revenue growth expectation for fy2024, compared to 2022, 2023?

That's a start.

"It's long understood that this is the exit strategy for CF. You can find videos on this from 2 or 3 years ago. So there is no surprise here. So PIs expect(fingers crossed) that at some point this will happen."

During the past 2-3 yrs of expectation of a sale of the company.

The sp action has been as follows:

Dec 2020 22p

Dec 2021 24p

Dec 2022 10.20p

Feb 2023 21.5p

Dec 2023 23.75p

With the Company Nomad current target of 29p.

What is the target of the other broker, Cavendish (ex-Finncap)?

They've retained at 35p target price for years. Used to be mid 40's, didn't it?

Why did Cavendish (ex-Finncap) drop the target price? Wasn't it because DiM has failed and so was put on the back burner because it's failed to meet the company's expectations due to the investing environment?

How much of HVO's revenue has come from DiM over the past 3 years?

Kilman

Thanks for your opinions.

"Fair enough that there are currently no 3%+ II. "

Thanks for confirming it's a bear point. 3 yrs and no significant buying by institutions. It may change but so far no evidence in 3 yrs.

Around 40% of IIs hold TLY and some were increasing recently.

"FFS on these boards all shares get ramped, including you on TLY! Sure we might aswell shut down the forum then. "

Exactly my point, if bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger. If the bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger. All the information should be there for investors to make an informed decision.

eg I countered, with evidence, on TLY thread, Hallsworthy's misconception has only 1 client. Pharmas use 1 or 2 companies for testing their potential drugs/vaccines. It isn't thousands of of clients nor hundreds of contracts.

"No a red flag, is dropping contracts, dropping revenues, disintegrating cash balance, chairman changes, dropping multi year paid interim dividend.. None of which has happened to hVivo."

Companies win/lose contracts, just like HVO had cancelled contracts. What happened to DiM, which was supposed to be the jewel in the crown? No contracts attached to it and cancelled. Missed expectations/spin offs. Red flag.

Chairman changes!!! Companies do change directors, it's not unsual.

You've forgotten HVO changed their CEO < 2 yrs ago and then the BoD granted him huge options to entice him to stay!!

How many shares has HVO's CEO bought in 2yrs, since he was appointed? TLY new chairman was appointed just 6 weeks ago, he's already bought 1.5m.

"Announced first dividend last year and a regular one starting this year."

Hasn't happened, so again jam tomorrow. They INTEND to pay a NOMINAL dividend later this year, just happens to be before the CEO's options are exercisable. Backs up my point, this is being talked up.

"I still believe that this is a timing issue but we shall see in the update for January"

Again, it's all about timing. Might happen in time for the huge options exercisable. Again, backs my point this is being talked up.

"It's long understood that this is the exit strategy for CF. You can find videos on this from 2 or 3 years ago. So there is no surprise here. So PIs expect(fingers crossed) that at some point this will happen."

Exactly my point. It is being talked up because they want to sell the business.

Crucially, the company Nomad, who advise the BoD, have a 29p target price. Any offers around that price and they will advice the BoD it's a fair offer.

So I can't see anything which changes my opinion about the bear points.