Member Info for stt1

Hallsworthy,

To help you understand how the NHS operates and to show there's not just the 1 client, as I've shown previously.

The UK govn collects taxes and allocates funds to the NHS. Each of the 4 UK Nations is allocated funds for their use. So 4 separate NHS organisations.

The way those resources are allocated is down to each of the NHS organisations, ie per UK Nation.

There are over 60 'local health bodies' within the 4 UK Nations.

Each of the local health bodies decides the best way to allocate their funding, giving priority to mandatory services.

Republic of Ireland has it's own Health Service. RoI became an independent sovereign nation 100years ago!!

So, that's over 70 clients and potential clients already.

Then there's the other growing businesses, with higher margins, within TLY's diversified business model. Hundreds of clients/potential clients.

The fact you quote 1 says everything about your lack of knowledge.

NHS allocation of resources was made independent of the govn in 2012.

Keep up, it might help you post facts rather than misleading comments.

NHS resource allocation is controlled by the NHS not the govn

"Structure. The English NHS is controlled by the UK government through the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), which takes political responsibility for the service. Resource allocation and oversight was delegated to NHS England, an arms-length body, by the Health and Social Care Act 2012."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service_(England)#:~:text=Structure,-Main%20article%3A%20Health&text=The%20English%20NHS%20is%20controlled,and%20Social%20Care%20Act%202012.

With NHS England:

What are integrated care systems?

Integrated care systems (ICSs) are partnerships that bring together NHS organisations, local authorities and others to take collective responsibility for planning services, improving health and reducing inequalities across geographical areas.

There are 42 ICSs across England, covering populations of around 500,000 to 3 million people.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/integrated-care-systems-explained

Hallsworthy,

Bear point.

There's no evidence of significant buying by Institutions...2021, 2022, 2023.

There's no evidence of institutionS holding > 3%.

Why no interest by institutions?. PIs yest but why lack of interest from institutionS.

Look what happened to a lot of covid shares which were ramped on PI sentiment?

That is a red flag.

Discuss

Hallsworthy,

I've asked you list the bull points here.

Yet you've still failed to list any?

Hallsworthy,

Despite receiving money due to exercise of warrants and revenues from Polb as of Q3, the expected cash is declining. You would expect cash to be increasing and not declining.

It might explain why they don't pay regular, normal, dividends.

Might also explain why this is being talked up and they wanting to sell it.

30th June 2023 £31.3m

Expected cash Dec 31st: £28m

July TU:

"Net cash of £31.3 million as at 30 June 2023 (H1 2022: £15.9 million)"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw/export

Discuss

Hallsworthy,

Feel free to counter the fact that the CEO has huge 7m options and CF bought some shares at 26p.

The CEO bought £50k worth in Sept 2022.

Directors make small buys in an attempt to get the price up ready for a big sell.

The company is being talked up as the huge options granted to the CEO will become exercisable in a year.

Discuss.

Hallsworthy,

"Super dangerous to invest in a company with effectively a single client. If the government look elsewhere, then the entire company could become worthless overnight"

They don't have 1 client.

In what way will the government, whoever is in power, look elsewhere?

So you saying the UK government will change the law and disband the Scottish, Welsh, NI executives?

The UK govn will invade Republic of Ireland and implement UK laws there? The UN and EU will just sit by and let that happen?

That's a bit of a longshot, isn't it?

Magoo,

"I can see why you are bitter and twisted"

I posting company newsflow, contrarian opinions but there's a distinct lack of analysis or countering the bear points.

I'm not bitter at all. I've seen all this before several times. Confirmation bias because the sp has risen just before a TU.

Look at previous sp reaction. The sp was around these levels before, only to fall back.

In Sept 2021, when I 1st looked at these, the sp was 27p. That was following a newspaper tip as well.

Dec 2020 22p

Dec 2021 24p

Dec 2022 10.20p

Feb 2023 21.5p

Dec 2023 23.75p

Kilman,

"If it was PI's ramping here that was causing the sp rise then it would be a lot higher and on a lot of other stocks too including TLY."

The Nomad's fair value here is 29p. Why would the gang push the sp a lot higher. The current sp has settled around 26p, around 10% within the Nomad's target.

The ramping, coupled with hundreds of small trades to push the sp higher.

Yet there's no evidence of significant buying by institutions. No evidence of institutions owning > 3%

so it's PIs.

With TLY, it's the opposite:

Hundreds of small sell trades, coupled with a surge in deramping to push the sp lower.

TLY's shares on loan surged in Jan 2023.

2022:

Dec 297157 0.16%

2023

Jan 4650990 2.54%

Feb 5528394 3%

Aug 7026432 3.81%

Look at the posts on TLY by Hallsworthy, moniman and Twogood2die...the success of the companies they ramp is dependent on TLY's sp falling. Why?

Similar reactions at trmr, nano, byot etc etc when they were being ramped with lots of small trades and BS ramps..I warned of the red flags. Instead of countering the red flags, they attacked TLY.

Why TLY? because it's illiquid and easy to manipulate the sp.

No point in the rampers discussing the company business because their points always fail

BillB,

Makes no difference to me what you think.

Hundreds of trades, no evidence of significant buying by IIs, ramped by a group of PIs, to entice punters in so they can sell and move to their next one.

Look at the posts of TLY.

The success of HVO is dependent on TLY sp falling.

Why do you think that is?

The same happened at trmr, byot, nano.... until the sp came crashing down.

1gw (on other BBs) uses multiple ids to entice punters in. He has been doing so for years.

Moniman

"Small cap funds maybe looking to buy as company valuation gets larger?"

The mcap is similar to where it was a year ago and previous years. So it's not any larger now than back then, is it?

Dec 2020 22p

Dec 2021 24p

Dec 2022 10.20p

Feb 2023 21.5p

Dec 2023 23.75p

There's no evidence of significant buying by institutions in previous years 2021, 2022, 2023...

Why would small cap funds look at them now?

There's no evidence of significant buying by institutions since July.

I see you were ramping Polb yesterday, after the retrace here. A company with NIL revenues, as per the last fy results.

I see you were posting misleading posts on TLY. Is the success of your ramps dependent on the sp of TLY falling? Why's that?

This is being talked up.

Sp falling and gone quiet.

As I said yesterday

"I think 26.6p is the top, or near the top of the current cycle."

Let's see.

From TLY website:

Provide services to all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland, so not just UK

UC to NHS, HMP

EC to NHS

CW to individual corporations

Our Services

https://www.totallyplc.com/our-services/

Urgent Care - NHS 111, Urgent Care Centres

"Quality urgent care services including NHS 111, Urgent Treatment Centres, GP Out-Of-Hours services and a National Clinical Assessment Service."

Elective Care

Totally works with hospitals, commissioners and trusts to provide high-quality insourcing elective care, community and therapy services which target the reduction of waiting lists.

Corporate Wellbeing

Totally provides a range of corporate fitness, wellbeing and occupational health services.

Uh-Oh

"the company be taken out, at a huge premium, by a big pharmaceutical company looking for its own drug testing unit."

The company broker/Nomad, Liberum, has a target price of 29p.

That target price is based on a UK peer, Ergomed, being bought out last year. If a peer was sold for what Nomad consider a similar rating then if an offer was made, then as the nomad and given their role, they would advise the BoD that the offer is fair.

Ergomed BoD unanimously accepted the offer.

https://www.pehubeurope.com/permira-completes-ergomed-takeover/

Uh-Oh

"Ultimately, at the company grows, institutional investors will climb aboard. Currently, that is not possible without a share issuance. "

The company has supposedly being growing for years, hasn't it? It's now a massive £176m Mcap.

If Institutions see the opportunity then they would have been loading up but they are not.

In fact, JPM bought only have a small position.

"The portfolio continued to evolve as we adapted to the changes in the economic environment. New additions included XPS Pensions following significant positive changes to pension fund dynamics and Vertu Motors on improved trading and lowly valuation. We also bought a small position in hVIVO, the world leader in the small but growing market of testing infectious disease vaccines via human trials,"

https://quoteddata.com/2023/10/modest-underperformance-jpmorgan-uk-smaller-companies-challenging-year/

Whereas at TLY (a share posters repeatedly mention), 40% is held by multiple Institutions and some were increasing recently. Mcap £10m

Uh-Oh,

"However, there is little wrong with rewarding success and what Mo Khan and his colleagues are now achieving at hVIVO are to be congratulated."

That's the point. Mo was granted huge options but none of the other directors. It's supposed to be a team running the company.

That says to me that Mo approached the BoD wanting to leave. They offered him an incentive to stay, as it clearly says in the 'grant options' rns

CF wasn't achieving much through his ramblings.

The current sp is around where CF bought some shares 2.5 YEARS ago.

The repeated mention in the media, the same message repeated.

With MOs options due to be exercised in a years.

It's obvious they want to sell the company. Obviously MO wants his options, currently valued at over £1m.

It's obvious CF would want the shares he purchased 2.5 years ago to be in profit.

It's obvious the many PIs who were holding when these were in the 40s would want the sp to rise.

This is being talked up.

I think 26.6p is the top, or near the top of the current cycle.

The advantages of TLY's diversified business model.

When 1 of their divisions slows, the others pick up. Exactly as happened during covid, planned care stopped but NHS 111 surged.

TLY diversified business model

1) NHS Urgent Care, NHS 111, Urgent Care centres

2) Elective Care

3) Company wellbeing services.

Because of the Junior Doctors strikes, A&E will be overwhelmed. Patients have the choice to sit in A&E for hours(if they allowed in) on end, or phone NHS 111 or attend an Urgent Care Centre. NHS 111/Urgent Care Centres are both part of TLY's diversified business model.

PEOPLE are being urged to use NHS 111 for all non-emergency healthcare, as the junior doctors strike commences today, Wednesday 3.

https://www.warrington-worldwide.co.uk/2024/01/03/public-urged-to-use-nhs-111-as-doctor-strikes-begin/

"The action will not only have an enormous impact on planned care, but comes on top of a host of seasonal pressures such as Covid, flu, and staff absences due to sickness - all of which is impacting on how patients flow through hospitals.""

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67858854

Thesoundman

"He made a single Director purchase of £300,000 at approx 26p (a little over a million shares) a couple of years ago"

Current sp 25.5p, so CF is at break-even after couple of years.

Many PIs on here have also been here 3 years and were here when sp was in 40s.

Now company being talked up.

MO huge 7m options, granted under a year ago, which were backdated a year, are excersible in a year. From the grant, it seems he approached the BoD saying he's leaving. Why would he want to leave a company which was growing. So the company decided to award him, and him alone, huge 7m options to tempt him to stay.

The LTIP from company - note the "The LTIP has been designed to reward, INCENTIVISE and RETAIN Mr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders."

"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.

Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.

The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export

Elrico,

To save you going through the posts.

These are my bear points, I believe rational bear points:

No evidence of institutions being major holders > 3%

No evidence of significant buying by institutions in 2023, 2022, 2021...

Mo, CEO has huge options, which are due to exercise in a year.

CF (founder, ex CEO) is a major holder where his holding is now around break even.

Declining cash, despite warrant holders selling and income now being received from Polb.

Lack of strong revenue growth expectation, despite the new facility.

Huge shares on loan

Company Nomad has a target price of 29p, based on Peer's takeover. IF HVO receive a takeover.

Mcap £170m with £55m revenues, declining cash.

Missed expectations/questionable business model.

Elrico,

"Stt1 Where are your bear points?"

I've already posted all my rational bear points. Feel free to post the evidence to counter them.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/