Member Info for stt1

They bought these 2 units for 1/2 their revenue for 2024.

Given HVO's revenue for 2024 is c£64m and it's evident they went ex-growth, I think HVO valuation is still too high.

Solvista,

Thank you.

The company newsflow has been as I predicted over a year ago. One of the red flags was the chairman dumping majority of his holding nearly a year ago (Feb 2024) whilst the company was being talked up.

The company newsflow, facts and my opinions based on those facts have been proven right.

I also predicted rampers will come along and claim, in hindsight, that those bear points were expected. Not surprising that is exactly what is happening.

Mmhater

My point is if a company "wanted" to take a stake, why would they bid significantly below current bid and risk missing out.

By bidding below the bid price, I think it's more likely to be speculators, traders, than someone "wanting" to buy.

Justdandy

"there is 3m shares on the bid at 7.8p c£250,000."

"I think we have a Pharma stake building here. Thats no ordinary order. "

If a pharma wanted to build a stake, why would they bid 7.8p, a discount to the current bid?

Pharmas/funds take punts on companies all the time, it's nothing new.

I think a pharma wanted to build a stake they would pay the current bid or a premium. And why 3%? £250k (as per your calculation) is peanuts to big pharmas anyway.

The Sound Man

" I can tell you that they tie the parties to the terms agreed whilst a contract is drawn up and then signed."

Glad you agree. It's not a contract, it's a Letter of Intent.

"The critical terms, for example the contract sum"

Glad you agree, the contact sum would already be known.

They would not agree to a letter of intent and terms without knowing what the value is? They would therefore, know if it is the largest contract or not.

Whereas, they are claiming 'Expect it to be'.

Jonny

"Back to 30 we go!"

Great, so you're loading up big time and won't sell a single share until they reach 30p.

It's a Letter of Intent...

They don't know the value only EXPECTED to be....You would expect them to know if this is their largest contract, wouldn't you? Either publish a figure or don't mention it.

Announced just before the CEO's huge options are due to start to exercise next month.

Announced just few weeks before the fy2024 TU!! Previous fy TU published in January but was put back this year!!

Coincidence?

Newsflow continues as expected.

Trout

"That has given yourself and others carte blanche to deramp the information void"

That works both ways.

Rampers have been using information void to suggest things are better than the company newsflow actually stated, ie overplaying the potential rather than based on facts.

I've posted company newsflow, facts and opinions based on those.

I posted the bear points/red flags based on the company newsflow, which showed revenue growth rate had slowed, company was being talked up and the chairman dumping his entire holding.

My posts have been consistent.

The title of this stream isn't right.

January, 2024, ONE year ago, they had signed and rns c£22m of contracts.

One c£16m and c£6m contract, announced a year ago, January 2024, so the contract announced today, c£3m, is not the "Largest contract to date!!" as the message header suggests.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xj70qkx/export

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xze3l3x

Read the company newsflow

Humpalump

"that 6 months chart is beautiful"

I'm posting about the sp spike and retrace so far this month and not 6 months.

How does the chart for YTD look?

The sp rose to c7p in December, following the Grant rns. I believe the surge this month, hundreds of trades, was the pump and dump.

I expect the pump & dump gang will churn some over the next few days for another try.

Chub

" I believe most of the YTD gains have gone now. "

I did say there was no reason for the rise over the past couple of weeks and I see it as a pump and dump.. So the sp has fallen back, as expected.

Look at the number trades as well, gone from hundreds of traders daily to around 50 today.

Cash has declined significantly to c£260m.

Divi cost £192m. I expect divi will have to be cut, otherwise they run the risk of needing funds.

They also said "Record visibility into 2025" a year ago in their Jan 2024 TU. That was all before the move to new facility.

Yet despite that Jan 2024 "record visibility into 2025" statement, the chairman, 1st dumped majority of his holding then the entire remaining holding, huge red flag. Why did the chairman dump his entire holding if they already had record visibility into 2025???

Jan 2024 TU:

They said "record visibility into 2025"

"Current year outlook

hVIVO enters the year in its strongest ever position with 90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted, and record revenue visibility into 2025."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xopzn1r/export

The company newsflow has been as expected.

Robert Harris looks like an excellent appointment.

He's got wealth of experience, across many organisations including NHS England, Govn, several NHS trusts and crucially also at Medinet, the leading provider of insourcing services to the NHS. He was also a non-exec at a rival firm, DHU Healthcare.

"Robert has an impressive track record in healthcare including responsibility for government health policy, strategy and hospital regulation. He has held multiple Executive and Non-Executive positions within successful healthcare organisations, both NHS and private, and was the first National Director of Strategy at NHS England from 2012 to 2014. "

"Non-Executive Chair of Medinet Clinical Services, the leading provider of insourced clinical services to the NHS."

https://www.totallygroup.com/news-and-media/news/totally-welcomes-robert-harris-non-executive-director/

JustDandy

"a CEO stressing the working towards cashflow breakeven without a raise "

They working towards cashflow breakeven, they haven't reached that position yet. Until they do, there's every possibility they will need to raise more money.

Although the Grant, announced a month ago helps, it doesn't guarantee they will reach cash breakeven nor win more contracts.

Let's see what the company say whenever they update the market.

FACTS:

Here's what Hardman say about FAB:

"Fusion Antibody (FAB)

FAB is a CRO providing antibody services, including discovery/generation,

development, characterisation, optimisation, and small-scale production, for human and veterinary medicines, diagnostic tools, and research. 2024 was characterised by a number of announcements with biotech and pharma companies and research labs. Consequently, the shares rose 66%."

Look at the sp

31st Dec 2023 4.3p

3rd Dec 2024 4.2p

So the shares didn't rise because of all the contracts.

4th Dec 2024 Grant rns

They rose because of the Grant rns.

"Recently announced interim results reported that sales increased 123% to £1.21m in 1H’25. However, the numbers are still very small and getting sales traction withsome form of recurring revenue will be the key challenge going forward."

Absolutely, they need to gain sales traction with recurring revenue. According to Hardman report, that "will be the key challenge"

https://hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/250109-Hardmn-Hardman-Healthcare-Index-review-of-2024.pdf

I see most of those concerns, expressed for 2024, still exist. Gilts have been rising, govn debt has been rising. Labour's and Trump's policies are inflationary, which is likely to mean interest rates stay higher for longer. Gilts rising shows investors are concerned about inflationary pressures, resulting in interest rates staying higher.

Whether Labour or Trump have removed uncertainty is an individual's opinion based on whether you believe Labour are doing well and have the right approach.

From the Hardman report:

"Performance of world markets

To put the performance of our, largely, small UK healthcare stocks into perspective, it is sensible to look first at the performance of the major world markets. At the beginning of 2024, global markets were expecting the major central banks to make a number of interest cuts throughout the year. With inflation staying stubbornly high, the central banks took a more cautious approach and, while there were cuts in interest rates, they were fewer than expected, and interest rates today remain higher than had been predicted. Added to this, there has been increasing global unrest and political instability in a number of countries, although the uncertainty has been removed in the US and the UK, with the election of Trump and Starmer, respectively. "

It's an index, no different from any other, be it ftse health index or anything else. FAB appearing in top 5 risers LAST year, doesn't suggest anything about their performance this year or any other year.

FACT:

31st Dec 2023 FAB ended 2023 at 4.3p. Look at the table.

3rd Dec 2024 Sp opened/closed 4.2p, which was still lower than the 2023 year end, so still at a loss.

4th Dec The Grant rns. The shares rose on the Grant rns.

Therefore, the index includes the rise due to the Grant rns.

It's naive to think shares rising one year, will continue the next.

Past performance is no guide to the future.

Other shares like HVO and SLN fell, so going by the same logic, they must have another bad year!!!! Really?

Company/sector newsflow is the driver

Charts are relevant to traders not those looking to invest longer term.

Antha,

"the NCI news will drop and you miss out on the sp doubling or more."

There's no guarantee that any news will cause the sp to double.

Whether the sp goes up or down, depends on whether any news is positive/negative, doesn't it?

After all there's been expectation of NCI news, so it's a known so already largely factored into the price. It's not surprising people have taken the opportunity to lock in profits.

Whether any news arrives this week, this month etc nobody (apart from the company) knows for sure.