Member Info for Strike123

That is a good find!
Just this morning after seeing their website, I posted about tomorrow's results at around 11 and they changed it soon.
hmm now no one knows when the RNS for results will drop!

From the date of their transaction to the date when they notify is 6 days as per the previous RNS.
Their holding dropped from 5.89 to 4.98 in the latest RNS issued on 6th May.

With near to 20% drop in SP since then, their holding could now be down to 3% or under.
Next week most likely another RNS will come out.

It is bouncing from the days low. There are buyers for every share being sold.
Next week after the Jubilee, we shall start to ramp back up IMO.

Today is the day for consolidation. Not a rapid rise back to £4.50.
It is nicely holding up.
Close today near 390 is good enough for next leg up tomorrow to 400.

With Brent at $120 and avg for 2022 at $100, HBR cash flow will be huge despite windfall tax and has potential to be debt free.

could be a very good day!
With no doomed RNS since Friday, tomorrow's results will boost the SP with 100% rise on the cards!
POG chugging along nicely each day.
If we have some confident statements from BOD on the business tomorrow then I will look to add big.

Fantastic post BaysilHope!

Total overreaction with mcap loss of £1.5bn for a paltry $107M WT.

For 2022, assuming avg production of 200kbpoed and with $100 oil as the avg for 2022, total revenue is $7.3 billion!

Revenue $7.3bn
capex guidance of $1.3bn
Opex $160M
Total tax including Corporation, Windfall Tax etc 65% $3.90bn approx
Net cash - $2bn ?
Current debt as of Mar $1.7bn

HBR debt free by 2023 despite Windfall Tax!
Bumper Dividends to follow!
HBR awashed with $2bn cash from 2023 onwards if Poo stays at $100. Even with $80 oil HBR will still be having loads of cash.

As per the trading update -

"At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023"

With oil and gas prices only going to go up for 2022, HBR has the potential to make $1bn of FCF for 2022 despite WT and market cannot ignore this as this FCF will potentially help HBR debt free company.

Analysts price targets were over £6. We should atleast be £4.50.

That is a good analysis and concurs with what we all have been saying.
There is a minimal impact on HBR for this year and next year.
Mcap loss of £1.5Bn is totally unjustified for a £107M WT tax.

Just need little blue on Monday and all those who sold will be desperate to buy back before this fly again back to £5.

Analysts price targets are over £6. We should atleast be £4.50 for starters considering the oil moving higher and higher.
Almost $120 now and should easily touch $130-$150 at the peak of summer driving season. It will go even higher due to the EU embargo on Russian oil and HBR's £107M will look as a paltry amount.

Thanks Kign for the numbers.

Barclays,SSE and others are paying only 20% of their profits as tax whereas oils are paying 65%!

It is utter ridiculous. Can someone send this info to SKY News and ask Sunak to explain this injustice on TV?

Even Jefferies said ENQ and HBR will not pay much this year. I don't know how Telegraph is coming up with £800M WT bill for HBR. Probably they mean the total tax bill including corporation tax?

If earnings before tax for HBR is £3.2bn then 25% WT is £800M but you need to deduct capex cost and opex cost as well from the earnings so Telegraph's £800M tax bill is not correct.

To me I think Jefferies numbers are correct. HBR Windfall tax bill is just £107M for this year.

Tax news was announced yesterday and we were down by 5% if I remember correctly and I thought that is the end of sell on the news and I held onto my losses. Could have minimized the losses by selling yesterday. If I top up another £10k now then my avg comes down to £4.20, I think. Not sure if I should act quickly before the bloody shorts take this further down?

I think Telegraph got their £800M wrong and that spooked many ?

Absolute bloodbath.
From £4.90 to £3.90 is absolutely oversold.
With oil at $115, where else do the peeps want to invest?
Growth stocks? Absolute bloodbath there too....

Jefferies sees only £107M tax being paid for this year and HBR is still expected to make huge profits, which helps in reducing the debt?

This is easily £4.50 worth.

"Estimate in the Times today that it will cost HBR $107M in 2022 and $268m in 2023"

If the numbers are close to the Times estimate then it is definitely oversold.
Wonder if their estimates are based on POO at $120?

In my eyes, the favour that the windfax tax did is that POO is cemented at $100+ for next 2 years!
As with no investment in the projects, supply will be severely constrained but demand keeps going up!

Without the windfall tax, we could have been debt free by year end and with tax, it just takes another 6 months more to be debt free?

Time to load up more at these prices.

Bloody shorts want you to believe that £4 is the new normal.
The moment there is a bad news in the market, shorts jump on taking the price down. They will buy back the shares at this low price when PIs start selling believing that £4 is the new normal. So even if the shorts buy back, price may not go up as much if PIs are selling too getting frustrated.

As it is just 2 days back when the price started coming down so probably shorts would have hoped that the windfall tax news may not materialize soon enough but let's hope that we get true figures out and hopefully if HBR can confirm in a RNS on how much are they impacted by the tax then that would clear up the uncertainty then bloody shorts will close too. Now will HBR issue RNS on this? May be we should all email IR about this and demand for a RNS to detail how much HBR is impacted.

Articles mentioned that there is not much impact on HBR. I don't think it will be £500m on HBR alone!
If we hold tight and not give up our shares then shorts will have to buy back at much higher levels. Hold tight.

can't believe this is now down to 420s
not sure what is the rush to sell. It is being sold as if only HBR is going to pay all of the windfall tax that govt wants.

is GIC the group that is part of Chrysaor that merged with Premier Oil? Who the fcuk is GIC group?

Pearls, you are bang on right!
" the point is that the oil companies are a soft obvious target for the government, but actually the surplus profit the banks will soon be making as they ratchet up the interest rates on mortgages should more be more than double the oil profits. Why then should the banks get away with charging more for everyone's loans and not paying a windfall tax? A bank windfall tax will probably bring in between 2 - 3 times what the government will get from the oil companies, many of whom are international in their operations, so how effective will such a tax be on them, anyway? The Banks on the other hand, are a much more captive market...."

Why only tax energy companies? why not banks? Definitely banks are making huge loads with high mortgage rates and they should be taxed on their profits. I hope the petition letter from all energy companies have mentioned this point!

Any tax on energy companies will lead to less investment by the energy companies and that would lead to even higher oil prices fueling the inflation. Bojo can't expect energy companies to invest and at the same time tax them. It is the banks who need to be taxed.

bloody hell it is now 430p!
It looks like FTSE100 companies are just being shorted irrespective of their fundamentals.
Any company that enters FTSE100 is getting battered except for miners.
It looks like the US funds with their trading desks in London are told to just short the FTSE100 stocks.

"War is cooling off, or it’s sort of new normal."

I agree that it is now becoming the new normal. Yesterday, veteran US Senator said West should fuelling the war and that West should ask Zelensky to let go of the regions that Russia attempting to occupy otherwise inflation will double due to the war and it is the west that would be hit hard.

It is now more than 3 months since the war started and the sanctions but POG seem to be chugging along with the business as each day passes.

Now it is all about who owns the POG assets! Will it stay with POG or UMMC woud acquire it!

Bloomberg says UK energy firms beware. The government wants a larger part of your massive profits. Rishi Sunak told officials to put together plans for a possible windfall tax on more than £10 billion of excess profits earned by electricity generators, the FT reported. Wind farm operators would also have to pay. The plan is gaining political support but there's a worry that it might deter investment.

Bloody disgusting how the games are being played here. Totally ignoring the free cash flow that HBR makes. It is being sold as if it is going to bust in a month. Ffs this is a ftse100 company. Pathetic manipulation of the share price. This should be 500p+ easily.

If Strukhov's stake is $200M worth then h would agree any offer above that price.
Now UMMC/GPB might say that they would only offer $100M otherwise GPB might demand immediate loan payment!

Things would get very interesting if POLY also throws their hat into the ring! Article mentions that POLY is also interested in POG assets. If Strukhov can pull POLY as well for the bid then we could have more than $200M offer(Strukhov's stake).

Tomorrow RNS likely. It can land at 8.45am too!