Member Info for Strider4

Seems like a load of hocus pocus to me. I've yet to read of a successful trader that uses Elliot Waves as his primary tool, whereas there are examples aplenty of traders who have made a fortune using classic TA (S/R, trendlines, chart formations, volume). Happy to be enlightened.

I assume that Bert has not been sharing any market sensitive additional information with you...so can't see why anyone would be particularly interested.

If he has been sharing information that could have a significant impact on sentiment, and therefore price, then that is obviously illegal.

There are $29.5mil in trade payables. There is $20mil in cash and $7.5mil in the inventory.

Never mind this problem with the pit wall, HUM was already losing money hand over fist (some $20mil in the last quarter). When you add in the impact that this pit problem will have then it seems extremely likely that they will be flying close to the wire.

Choppy waters indeed. This has gone from what looked like a safe-ish long-term investment to nothing of the sort. I would not be in the least surprised if there is a cash call, as they wil get pretty unfavourable terms on an additional loan with only 5 years of reserves on the register.

Who knows how this will pan out, but I will be watching from the sidelines until the picture (particularly the financials), are clearly defined. I'm happy to come in late and pay more, rather than bargain hunt and get burnt.

As an aside, management have issued several RNS in which they neatly omit important negative details, but guess what, then the astute PI just fills in between the lines anyway.

The key point in that PI update (other than the fact that the bridge is unlikely to affect gold transport/sales which is a plus but let's face it the company would be completely screwed if there was no way in or out!) was No.3, which is extremely vague and only leads me to think that the cash burn is as rapid as the Q3 numbers suggest and that they have about 2-3 months to get this thing up to full speed again before they need additional finance (loan extension or cap in hand to the market):

"3. $20m cash looks like a big cash burn since Q2 update, is that down to invoices now being caught up?

Its all based around the big increase of Gold inventory, reduction in debt, trade payables and spending on exploration and the second ball mill."

BB - fair enough. So they say they've paid down trade payables by $3.5mil which should mean there are $29mil of trade payables on the books still...

Doesn't the net debt more or less equate to:

20 (cash) + 7.5 (inventory) - 58 (long term debt) - 29.5 (trade payables) = -$60mil

Also, bear in mind that trade payables are short term debt and will seriously eat into the cash and inventory...

Has anyone an idea how much the trade payables amount to? This was neatly omitted from the corporate numbers there.

KB007 - I think perhaps just as importantly, if not more so, NM has spent a good part of his life doing this and he has finally hit the mother lode.

He wants to see it through to it's natural completion. And I'm sure there is an air of continuing excitement amongst the board as to just how many jewels are in this crown...

The corporate section is one of the most important parts of that RNS:

"Cash of US$20m on 25 October 2018
US$4.5m of debt repaid in the quarter, with total debt of US$58m
US$3.5m reduction in trade payables in the quarter
US$5.5m increase in gold inventory to US$7.5m (gold on hand and not yet sold) in the quarter"

Cash + unsold gold of only $27.5mil now with debt overshadowing at $58mil - this a is a marked deterioration from the previous quarter. They've got about 2-3 months to sort this thing out fully, or they will be seriously straining their cash reserves.

"Quite frankly I don’t care - as long as it happens."

I think we're (shareholders) all with you there!

Let's not lose sight of Mr Ramptastic's bizzare comment earlier on:

Something about 15p and such a shame!

Me thinks he has sold out. Quite frankly how he has the nuts to come out and say that beggars belief.

Sheltie, you mentioned an LOI as a possibility, but I think it's remote.

Any interested parties will be/should be playing their cards close to their chest, and enquiries with MTFB will no doubt be subject to confidentiality clauses. They don't want to do anything to unnecessarily pump up the share price, before they are ready to make a firm offer.

3 months off an FDA decision for a potential blockbuster drug - this has to be one of the best small cap pharma plays out there.

Columbo, I'm sure the same thing must have been said when Newcrest bought a wodge more at 41p...

But the company has progressed a great deal since then and is in a much stronger position.

I don't really know which way I want the share price to go! Down and I get to buy more on the cheap. Up and I make some money on a reasonable sum I put in at 41p.

Hmm, on balance I think I want it to go down some more!

I'm taking issue with your shifting rhetoric.

First it's 114p as a main target (when the SP was up at 125p etc). Then as it approaches 114p you qualify and say it might go lower! Well that's genius isn't it - the share price can only go in two directions (up or down), so saying it might go lower is a complete waste of breath.

LOL, thought I'd check back in here and lo and behold downbutnotout is shamelessly continuing to dish out second rate chart advice.

114p - does that ring a bell? Ah, but then you added a qualifying remark "but it might go lower". Credibility shot to pieces there. It's like me saying 100p now, BUT it might go lower - so that covers everything down from 100p to zero!

Then if it goes up you shrink back into the shadows as you are presumably long with a position or have missed your target entry.

HP, that was pure (and I mean 100%) luck on his part. Any second-rate chartist can call a support level.

Halfpenny - you missed the point entirely.

I could say it's going to hit 108p. Then I go quiet - if it starts getting to 109 or so I then come back and say I told you so, and even throw in a "it might go even lower" now.

If it zooms off without going anywhere near 108p, guess what, you don't hear me coming back on and telling you how wrong I was...

It's the easiest thing in the world to come out of the woodwork and state a support level (your target for cheaper entry).

Then you go quiet if it doesn't materialize and if it does you come back crowing, and suggesting that it might even go to the next lower support, so that you can get in even cheaper.

Jerryspaniel, it's all about the category of resource: Inferred, Indicated, Reserve. I assume the $413/T would be for indicated ounces +.

As for a project that already had full bank funding, why on earth would they want to be taken out, when they already have the keys to the vault?! Takeover at that point would almost certainly have to be hostile.

There theorteically should be no drop. Yes there are more shares in issue, but that is exactly balanced by more cash in the bank.

I agree earthling - I think they would want the whole of Cascabel, so I think £1/share is far too cheap.

As for shares in BHP - not interested - I would cash them in straight away. If I wanted BHP shares I could buy them at market tomorrow!