Member Info for Strider4

Kev - if you think that the CAPEX of $440mil isn't going to pose a serious hurdle for the company, then it is you who have a significant lack of understanding of the way these things go. The big companies know that that can sweat HZM for all its worth. There are examples aplenty - KEFI and BCN are two that come to mind immediately. Where the CAPEX to Mcap ratio is too high then some companies just go bust - think BAO and AFE.

The exercised options come into the market on Friday. Surely there will be a wave of selling then as those that have exercised for the purpose of making a very tidy and sure 30% sell off the bulk of their holding. People will have borrowed to the hilt, where they don't have the available readies, as it is a no-brainer. Those borrowings will need to be paid back minus the profit.

Mannan, it all comes down to this:

"Capital cost estimate of $443m (AACE class 3), including $65.3 million of contingencies"

They needed 440mil smackaroos to get this thing up and running. The mcap is tiny - it's going to be a big ask. Just look at the trouble BCN are having - they started with a much higher mcap and they have a spanking Li resource.

Strike that - 4 and counting.

Well there you go - some appreciation at last. And it got 5 "recommends" no less, so it looks like I'm building up a fan club.

Petch - don't be ridiculous; there are examples beyond count of share prices hitting 52 week lows in decent companies with no hint of director buying.

There are also plenty of examples where directors have bought only for the share price to continue to sink. The long and short of it is that director buying should be taken with a large pinch of salt, and certainly not used as a primary guide to inform investment decisions.

FilthyRich, Ah ok that makes sense. So BU made the call late and then missed recommending the buy back pre-close at around 32p.

Earthling - no I can't be bothered trawling back through a load of garbage to see what was what! Happy to accept FR's detailed explanation there. As for having my "card marked" - LOL - mark away mate.

Earthling, surely I'm getting a bargain even if I buy at 40p...At least that's what I've been led to believe on here! As for an expert, of course not, but then neither are you. You were just at the right place, at the right time (luck) for your intial investment in SOLG which I'm guessing was in the 2-3p range and with a hold until the end mentality (LTH).

Days before the BHP buy-in the price hit 30p, down from the 38p plateau - I assume he called a sell when it broke down from there. If so it was a good call. I used your name, forgive me, because I noticed you repeatedly using that same argument against him.

LH - it was only a comment on BU's charting comments, which by the way I'm not saying are genius - they are just bread and butter TA.

Yes, I've seen his bias for CNR and sounds like he's dug himself into a hole here trying to argue against the fundamentals. I first ran into him in October 2016 when I sold out of CNR and he was arguing that the price was going to hold up - incidentally it didn't.

As I thought, bloated hype.

Can anyone explain why the price is currently 3x the stated NAV (last interim)? It seems rather high, even taking into account the excitement around the IOT sector.

It's all very well to be negative on a stock and to state as much on a public BB, for the purpose of trying to knock the price down so that you can get in cheaper. You see it all the time and I'm guilty of it myself on occasion.

But at least try to back your position up with some credibility please. You clearly know a lot less about the fundamentals that several of the LTHs on here and I doubt that you have any charting ability to speak of (not seen an evidence so far).

Agreed, BU has a pretty confrontational style which results in antagonism. However, antogonism is almost unavoidable in the instance where the technicals point down and the LTHs don't want to hear it!

As the technicals currently point up, and strongly so, in the medium term, LTHs are only too happy to hear more...

Not in, clearly. This is only for the brave at the moment.

Speculator, rather than taking the opportunity to point out any holes in my argument, thereby strengthening your case, you have resorted to a "short" jibe - weak to say the least.

Now would be a pretty poor time to be short, based on the recent price action. IF price were to recover to around the 24-25p mark then that would be a decent short entry. I still wouldn't take it however as this is an uncertain and volatile time for the company. Plenty of other excellent shorts available out there, in case you haven't noticed!

BNC - I'll leave it (Elliot Waves) thanks. Happy with my use of S/R, trendlines and pattern formations.

I'm not giving out lessons in TA. There are plenty of good books for that. But I would say that Bottumzup has some fairly reasonable things to say.

Earthling keeps going on about how BU calling it wrong recently, but I do believe the share price fell back to 30p before rebounding to 35p and then jump to 45p. So in my view he called it dead right as the astute trader who follows SOLG could easily have profited there.

Should add that even taking out the BH fiasco at $2mil and the ball mill at $13mil (assume it is entirely included either in trade payables or reduction in cash balance), they have lost money and a significant amount = AISC is higher than the spot gold price.

goldenveg - I think they stated in the annual report taht they're doing about 10km a month, so that would mean that the 2018 Alpala drill campaign is likely to finish mid-November, based on the estimated 4500m remaining.

TheGreenFool - you may have got your head around the numbers, but I'm not sure how the conclusion can make you happy?!

Othodelagery - yes those numbers are cash flow, but my point was what do they imply about the P & L? I think even the $1030 AISC is looking optimistic at the moment. If they are actually operating unprofitably, which it appears that they are since the cash pile is dwindling rapidly while trade payables and debt are only going down at a very sedate pace, then surely the AISC is above the spot gold price?

Speculator - you state that it’s not a p & l issue. Care to expand on how you figure that? Cash 20 mil, inventory 7.5 mil, 29.5 mil trade payables, 58 mil debt. This is a marked deterioration in the net position since the last quarter. Even taking into account 13.5 mil for the ball mill, it’s a loss and a significant one. And that was when they didn’t have this pit problem. “Cash flow” issue is nice and vague - perhaps we’ll see it in the next rns.