Member Info for Strider4

Schlem - on the subject of risk, investing is risky full stop, so it's a question of where you see it hitting the hardest and being potentially dangerous to your capital. What NM was saying is that he believes the only thing that could stop Alpala going into production, with SOLG at the helm or otherwise, is if Ecuador do some funny business. They tried that in the past and it put them back 15 years, so hopefully they won't be so downright stupid a second time, but you never know...

Yes, ya di ya, it's risky getting a mine into production. But NM's point is that this is such an excellent resource that there will be no shortage of investment interest (i.e. the finance side will not be the problem). The worst that could happen is a delay or two along the way.

I get the impression from that interview that they are champing at the bit to get at those other deposits with the drills.

While they wait they will continue to prove up Alpala, which is certainly not time wasted. And they need to keep the drill rigs busy and on the payroll, as they don't want any of the other companies having access to them.

Good find Luke. Top quality interview there. If this is going to be sold it ain't going to be cheap. JV is out of the question. Drilling rigs all tied up (they are big shareholders) - who are the other prospectors going to use...NM saying what are the chances that you hit your best deposit on the first attempt - unlikely. NM's firmly looking after his own, uhum, shareholder's interests - I can buy that.

That's got to rate as one of NM's best interviews yet.

Just looking at some other comparable deposits:

Oyu Tolgoi - 3.1Bt at 0.676 Cu, 0.24 Au
La Granja - 3Bt at 0.56 Cu
Cerro Verde - 2.5Bt at 0.495 Cu

Nail on the head there Trek I think; the weight of positive news is building steadily and this will pop at some point.

I, like FR, am a trader. However, I, unlike FR, didn't sell out on MRE2 news. The reason is that this is a bona fide takeover target now. The word takeover is incredibly over-used in investing, but it really does apply here. I for one am not going to be locked out, for the sake of a few pence on entry price, when/if the big announcement comes.

And the fact is that it could happen at any time - I have heard arguments that it won't be for a while and I hear them. Yes, there is a good chance it won't be for a while, but there is an equally good chance that it will happen quickly and take us by surprise.

Quady, can't be bothered to engage. It is you who needs to re-read.

Addicknt, yes we'll agree to disagree on that. BHP have still not put a director on the board close to 6 weeks on...like they haven't had time to think about who they're going to select - not.

As for "friendly", they are very new friends and this is business. The 5% deal is only considered friendly because it was mutually agreeable (SOLG needed to raise money at that point, it was at a 30% premium and a huge endorsement of the project, while BHP wanted their 5% stake and £100mil is chump change (give or take) to them. NM specifically mentioned that the 45p deal was very "efficient". I expect the same to be the case when/if a takeover offer comes - it will be efficient (i.e there won't be weeks of advanced warning).

Addicknt - "aggressive" in the sense fast - so not wrong. The six week timetable was illustrative only of the speed of movement so far. Yes, they won't be giving advanced warning - I stand by that. When they do start discussions it will be the real thing, it will have been agreed by the BHP board and they will have the budget to get the prize.

A bid could come at any time. BHP's updated M&A strategy (for FR's sake) is that they are looking for early stage deposits that can be the tier 1s of the future. What is Alpala now? And they like to have control.

What are BHP waiting for? Hmm, well it was 6 weeks from purchase of the Guyana stake to the purchase of a 5% stake at 45p. Next week will be 6 weeks again - it's entirely possible we could see it then. Of course, movements so far have been considered "aggressive", so it's possible they will wait a bit longer. Who knows. One thing is for sure, they won't be giving NM advanced warning.

And when you say "get comfy" FR, we all know that what you really mean is "I'd like the share price to drift lower so I can get a nice re-entry".

FR - you state the majors won't be interested in a takeover at this stage of SOLG's cycle. I take it you missed the BHP M&A strategy update?

As for BHP not having had discussions of a takeover with NM yet...why on g od's green would they? That would just be stupid. For that sort of thing cards are played close to the chest. They bought Guyana's stake without a phnoecall to SOLG. When they come to the table with an offer, it will be the real thing, it will be efficient, and they will get their prize.

Shipright, "filtered your insincere ass again" - can;t say I noticed the first time. Feel free. And as for the insincere, no diea what you mean. I've been consistently against these options from day 1. I am for SOLG and the progress NM and the team are making but I am against him dipping into shareholders' pockets exhorbitantly to line theirs.

I note that that was ticked up by 3..hmm let me guess: Unic (aka really clever fish - not just luck (right time, right place), BNC and possibly Earthling?

BNC - complaining about the bickering, seriously, you started a round yourself only the other day as a result of some of your snide comments.

Zoros, coffee well and truly smelt some time ago. Yes, I realize he is lining his and his trusty employees' pockets using moeny that is not his. And yes it is clear that the 60p strike and 3 year expiry is intended to give a very tasty profit to the holders of all these options if/when the takeover happens.

There's no two ways about it - it's greedy and lacks integrity.

Shipright - so the BOD deserve a bonus do they? How larger? Mather gave himself something like 4 million options last year, from memory and now he wants to give himself another 5 million more. If we assume a takeout at a min of £1 at some point then he will net a cool £2 million from it, at zero risk to himself. Yes, have a bonus but don't take the p ss.

And what LTHs rarely seem to realize is that here we are now. The ONLY way the share price is going to appreciate from here is either new money coming in or existing investors putting in more money. Both require an investment case FROM THIS POINT. New and additional money COULD NOT CARE LESS how much money all you holders from 4p made.

Ref your post earlier today saying that MRE2 and the PEA have been priced in. I take it you are a believer in the efficient market theory then, as that's effectively what you are saying. Firstly, you are saying the current mcap is fair value for SOLG at this stage. Secondly, if all these things are priced in then you would expect the price to neither move up nor down from here until we hear additional news. Now clearly that's all bunkam.

In the short and medium term, price can fluctuate quite wildly above and below fundamental value based on emotions (fear, greed, elation, despair, regret), which are also affected by general market and sector sentiment.

FR - potentially GGP could multi-bag more easily than SOLG in a shorter time frame. However, a bid could come at any time here, so potentially not the case.

Now on the downside, GGP can burn you like you've never been burnt before (or maybe you have). Also, watch out for the next placing - it's coming, you know it is...3 billion shares at 55mil mcap.

FR, so you are suggesting GGP could be close to 4x as big as SOLG is currently, based on one decent drill hole? Better to work in mcaps rather than share price.

Alpala, of the world variety!

More class Unic - keep it up.

What's that Unic? Did I hear "I'm considerably richer than yow"! Nice to see a touch of class :)