Conditional funding16 Nov 2018 07:40
is being worked on NOW (and that statement is almost 2 months old). I look forward to an announcement on that in January too. As Alpala is something everybody wants (as opposed to the case of a so so deposit), NM will be calling the shots on this, and he will also be in no particular hurry (no need to as sOLG are cashed up at the moment). And what does calling the shots mean? It means, as he said, that conditional funding will be based on NAV and not share price.
Funding the studies is small fry. The biggie is the CAPEX at the end. A possible, and in my opinion fairly likely scenario, is a smallish package in Jan/Feb based on the PEA NAV, at say the higher of the 20-day av. share price or 0.6-0.8 NAV. Then he can put in place milestone (PFS and BFS) future funding as well, again which would be based on the higher of some paercent of NAV or the av. share price. Crucially the NAV will be going up significantly as we go along (converting more into the indicated category and expanding the resource), so that by the time of the PFS, with MRE3 out we could be looking at double again, and then at the time of the bFS will we be looking at 5x the original MRE? Quite possibly. Funding arranged on that basis would be both fair to the funder and excellent for shareholders.
Now, NM has to follow this path regardless of whether he wants to sell or go to production. If he wants to sell it needs to be from a position of unassailable strength. I can't think of a better way than to have a strong conditional funding package in place. Then he can say to the majors: "Any off you come up with is going to have to look significantly better than what we already have".