Member Info for Strider4

Jerry, one poster suggested a reason why hole 64 is being "held" back (perhaps there are "unforseen, unavoidable delays"), is that they are absolutely stonking and there would be no way that the directors will pass their planned boatload of options at 60p if the news was out.

Just a theory, but after the recent avalanche of employee options, it's one that deserves credence.

Yes, be interesting to see the economics of some of the higher Cu price scenarios. In PEAs they usually do at least 3 scenarios based on different Cu prices. For SOLG that should range from Great to Excellent to Outstanding!

It's becoming increasingly clear that what will be most important in the upcoming MRE2 is the extent of the expansion of the high grade core, rather than total tonnage.

If they can more than double the high grade core then this has £s written all over, as this is the part that is going to materially affect the NAV and IRR in the upcoming PEA.

Spamming the board here I know but...In the most recent video with RR and BC, I note that BC comes out with an unhesitant statement of "short" for SOLG. He gives his statement no supporting arguments, as he does with all of his other position opinions in other companies. And he also states at the start of the presentation that he isn't into shorting miners (RR actually candidly states that he has a poor shorting record). It smells a bit of someone who is stuck defending an untenable position, for the sake of pride. RR's only issue with SOLG is the tonnage - he had none with the grade. MRE2 should resolve that anyway. RR does actually state that BHP and Newcrest ought to know more than him however, as GV pointed out earlier. Wrt to the tonnage though it's worth remembering Golpu - perhaps Rick and certainly BC would have discarded that one (as it is a lot smaller than Alpala) long ago. Newcrest on the other hand thought it was worth shelling out $5 billion in CAPEX.

11:37 - he brings up the classic mining cycle chart. However, that just doesn't apply to SOLG as:

a) the drills are still turning on Cascabel and they are dramatically expanding the resource (not just converting inferred to indicated etc).
b) SOLG have about a billion other fantastic projects, any of which could turn out to be another Alpala.
c) Takeover "risk" is now very real given BHP's recent activity and it being the second major (alongside Newcrest) on the register.

He then goes on to estimate (based on what looks like a slide from one of SOLG's presentations!) that the high grade core is 34Mt at 1.4% Cu.

Now the actual MRE statement, based on DRILL cores, states a core of:

"Higher grade core has a current 120 Mt @ 1.8% CuEq (2.0 Mt CuEq) at a 1.1% CuEq cut off, some 60% of which is in the Indicated category (by tonnage)"

So, Brent Cook, in his arrogance, thinks that his back of a fag packet estimate from a presentation slide is more accurate than the RNS'd MRE? How can this guy be taken seriously?

Ok so something that immediately stands out at 8:29 into the Feb presentation (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y74JTD58TGU&t=391s)
is that he is saying break even is 0.7-1% copper, which he has coloured orange! He says that 0.5-0.7Cu is loss making. Ok now that is absolute b..l..x. SOLG ahve been talking about a 3-4 year payback on CAPEX, which is astounding, by attacking the high grade core. Once you're "in", this guy BC is trying to say that sub !% Cu isn't worth bothering about? Not sure I need to even bother watching the rest of this.

Really I don't think you could pick much worse to short. The chart is looking super strong. And yes it did close above the short-term trendline on Friday.

They are cashed up to the max, courtesy of BHP coming for a stake at a 30% premium. There is an abundance of high impact short and medium term news.

Now when I'm looking for a shorting candidate, I look for a negative looking chart, negative trading updates, cash problems and high levels of debt. None of these apply to SOLG so I'm tempted to say this BC hasn't a clue what he's talking about.

Wrt to Aguinaga he does say in that presentation that if they didn't have Alpala they certainly would be progressing Aguinaga. Yes it looks like Aggy is not going to be a second Cascabel but it could come in as quite a handy satellite mine.

Kcfb - you make a good point. 60p director options are already hard enough to justify. No doubt they will get voted in by the major shareholders (Newcrest and BHP) to try to keep them sweet...

Your 14:14 post I should say - inspired. Back to usual form in the follow up 16:04...

I think it is going to be mouthwatering. Combine the big increase to the high grade core, front ending it and the relatively low CAPEX and this baby is going to have a monstrous NAV and IRR.

Got to say Earthling - great post. Didn't know you had it in you :)

figuratively speaking - I've gone beyond my intial investment plan. Couldn't resist. Not a lot of powder left dry now. Let's see how this all plays out over the coming months and next year.

DG - absolutely agree. To put it another way. Once MRE2 is on paper and is what they have said it will be then the majors will see the following comparison (as an example):

Golpu - $5bil capex (9Mt Cu, 17MOz Au) + who knows how much it would be to buy the concession off Newcrest.

OR

Cascabel - loads and loads of exploration upside PLUS
Alpala - $3bil CAPEX and AT LEAST $2bil to buy , bare minimum (10Mt Cu, 25M Oz Au and expected to DOUBLE AGAIN next year, if it follows a typical major porphyry discovery progression).

When looked at that way, $2bil seems cheap and there's no way that should buy any of the other 72 concessions.

Couldn't resist.

Jerry - it's a 5x current MRE, based on similarities with Golpu. Bear in mind though that the Golpu "final" product is only 9Mt Cu and 17m Oz Au. Alpala, if we get the targetted doubling, will be 10Mt Cu and 24m Oz Au this year! So that is bigger than Golplu ALREADY! The mind boggles. Newcrest was happy to pump in $5bil to get Golpu up and running. Do you think the majors will be fighting over each other to get hold of a project that is far bigger than Golpu with half the CAPEX - yes I think so.

Ref. JW's 2017 Brisbane presentation:

Newcrest will be spending $5bil on CAPEX (Alpala likely to come under $3bil)

2009 - 160Mt (1.1% Cu and 0.6g/t Au) = 1.76Mt Cu and 3.4mil Oz Au. So, it was slightly less than 1/3 the size of the Alpala MRE.
2016 - 820Mt (1% Cu and 0.7g/T Au). So that's 5x larger. Gives an idea of what Alpala might eventually be, and in a shorter timeframe, as the drill programme is super aggressive (100km completed this year):

Alpala - 25Mt Cu and 60mil Oz Au. Tasty. That would absolutely dwarf Golpu and woudl need half the CAPEX! It would truly be one of the GREAT mines to down in history.

Those are going to be a MAJOR share price mover next year. Listening to JW's latest presentation there are some superb targets just sat there waiting. I can see the SOLG team are champing at the bit.

FR - yes I don't think we can agree on that point. I see no other valid uptrend trendline, other than the one the price is sat on at the moment (aside from an extremely steep one that was broken 04/10/18, which I wouldn't really count).

When I look at the channel you've drawn it jumps out at me that it has been based on the upper line only, with the parallel bottom line tacked on adhoc.