Member Info for Strider4

Fr, I'm good thanks. No not on margin. How's your GGP stake going? Sold up yet? Placing due soon there.

And while we're here, wasn't going to bother replying to your earlier post but..."FFS I'm here to make money" or some such. Too simplistic by a long shot. Your agenda, to spell it out, is talking a share down when you are out and talking it up when you are in. Don't bother arguing with that, because we all saw your shift in tone the other day, then you started trying to sell GGP on here.

It's all about that here, as with ALL shares.

The political risk is always going to be there with a S American country. That is not going to change going forward. Therefore, you may as well do your risk reward calcs now and be done with it. Either it's too risky, in which case don't invest or sell up (it ain't going to get less risky with time). Or the reward is just too enticing (Alpala, 5 other juicy targets, BHP, cashed up etc etc etc).

And as you said yourself, you have taken a small (call it starter) position of 50k. You have plenty of powder dry, and the concerns you are airing today reflect that standpoint.

Pbow - not Kinross, Lundin Gold. I stand corrected - $700 million. The point stands however - that is not small change for Lundin.

So what's new Pbow?! The left is to be feared in the UK too!

Pbow - perhaps - these are all ifs and buts that could equally apply to many a south american country, and yet the mining industry continues.

I refer back to Lundin Gold - even having seen what they did to Kinross, they are pumping in several billion $ to get that producing. I think they will have done a risk reward analysis - the computer said YES! The other majors will have seen this, alongside doing their own calcs and modelling.

Not really FR - I can see just see your agenda that's all.

Pbow, ok and on my other point about years between repeating major blunders? I would think it is on the order of at least 25.

Pbow - yes there is no doubt. However, they usually wait a few years between them. The next elections are 2021, so y the earliest instance of any major governmental blunder is quite/very unlikely to be before then. I would say it will be at least 2025 and beyond before they even turn their thinking round to those sort of schenanigans again.

Quick question - are you invested here yet?

Your "concerns" sound like someone who is still on the sidelines, and possibly, dare I say it, hoping to get in a bit cheaper.

Pbow - it is an excellent example. Lundin have gone in despite that. And that is exactly the example I was referring to that set the Ecuadorian mining industry back 15 years. Could the gov. be so stupid again so quickly - you would hope not...

Pbow - the answer is yes - Lundin Gold has gone in "balls deep" with FdelNorte.

Political risk comes hand in hand with some of the best deposits in the world, and certainly most of the best deposits left to be found I would say.

Pbow - why would Rio not want to get involved when loads of the other majors are diving in (AAL, Newcrest, BHP, Hancock, CODELCO)?

Schlem - you've got to know your history on this. Ecuador have already messed around with the mining industry in the recent past (ref Fruta del Norte). Like I said the other night, it put them back close to 15 years. Anything is possible, but I'd like to say it is very unlikely to happen again so soon. That would just be stupid beyond belief.

Zeus - agree that BHP will likely want the whole lot. They will have to pay top dollar for it though...NM understands better than anyone the latent value in those under-explored concessions. He's seen what a monster Kamoa became after Ivanhoe sold half of it on the cheap. SOLG has even more potential than that, when taking into consideration all of it's targets.

And let's be honest, you favour the production route only because it will allow you to trade SOLG for a few extra years! You talk of production because you think there will be peaks and troughs in the share price along the way.

IF SOLG take Alpala to production, it is likely to be financed by a VERY tasty conditional funding package. Good luck finding a meaningful dip with that in place. Additionally, there will be assay results coming in right left and centre from those other juicy prospects, as well as Alpala, Aguinaga and Trivinio. This project is not your typical go into a decline as the studies commence - nice try.

Correction: "Those who say that talk of takeover being a possibility any time from now and certainly within the next 3-6 months, IS NOT ON THE CARDS, haven't been following BHPs movements in the last couple of months very closely. Another look required."

FR - flip it around - it is you who are against the idea of a takeover being imminent as you are sat on the sidelines hoping for a lower entry! Imagine the scenario in which the share closes one night at 36p, say, not low enough for you. And then bam, the next morning the £1 initial shot comes in from Rio...could you live with yourself?

Those who say that talk of takeover being a possibility any time from now and certainly within the next 3-6 months haven't been following BHPs movements in the last couple of months very closely. Another look required.

Monte - production won't start in 2 years - construction will (if all goes smoothly).

As Schlem pointed out a few days ago, there are 4 separate subsidiaries for the other concessions. Why has NM done that? Does it make it that much easier to sell them one by one? Yes, I think so. Sell Cascabel for £1.5, generous special dividend, then get that blueprint out as repeat 4 more times, at least. Sounds good to me.

Well we're due some regional news aren't we.

One of the great things about the share at this juncture is the juicy short-term news flow. There are the expecteds, like the PEA, Cascabel assays, and regional updates. And perhaps more importantly there are the unexpecteds: the biggies being a takeover or significant conditional funding package, and then the one that I'm really looking forward to: permission to drill those 5 targets...when those permits come there is going to be a serious buzz on here waiting for those first assays.