Member Info for Straycat

Assuming SZ has attended kindergarten accounting playgroup, he should, by now, be able to tie up his accounting shoelaces by himself. That being the case he will be presumably be aware of the need for constant operational cash management.

If so, he will have developed a capex cash phasing plan covering the whole timeframe for investment.

This info’ is not available to us, but it is inconceivable that a capex of this magnitude were not rigorously engineered and monitored.

If he’s in any way capable, this payment plan will have been devised to effect minimum impact on our underlying cash reserves, utilising monthly receipts.

It is possible to produce a cash payment schedule that barely grazes the underlying cash position.

In fact his ability to successfully pursue such a policy will be seen at the half year outcome. I regard it as one tangible indicator of his value to the Board.

Thanks Bravedog.

ANGINA, ss, Indrid,

Other than the recent Capital Market Day video presentation, are any of you aware of other filmed footage showing
JF and/or SZ in presentation/interview/news mode?

And if so, can you point me in the right direction?

Bravedog,

Back to that inscrutable VCP we go. You may well be right!!

Indrid,

We’re not going to see eye to eye on this, but that’s okay.....this sort of dialogue is what the bbs are designed to encourage.

Good chat Indrid.

Indrid,

What is a business plan if not a forecast, plain and simple?

You’ve just dismissed the basis for all responsible commercial lending as ‘guesswork’.

Come on Indrid,,,,

If you’d have stuck to the line of conservative cash management then you’d at least have had an argument....fragile, tenuous.and lacking business imagination, but at least an argument.

But the whole of the O & G industry is based on forecasting for goodness sake.

Forecasting, or guesswork as you call it, and it’s interpretation, is pivotal in the decision making process.

And one of the key management challenges is how to assess forecasts. They help inform opinion and assist risk evaluation, then decision making.

Otherwise there are a lot of lucky businesses out there.

So I’m going to ignore your guesswork analysis and concentrate on how to best use any forecast cash wholly surplus to requirements.

And share buy back is a tool often used to reset real value in an undervalued company.

Sorry Indrid, just got back from supper.

We”re not creating a better sp by artificial means.

Finally the sp can only grow if we double, then triple production over the next three years.

The buy back just makes it more expensive to join the club.

GKP is grossly undervalued right now and unless we do something about that, the IIs will continue to profit at our expense.

The buy back only operates using surplus, unrequired funds. It can be paused in a moment if funds are suddenly needed elsewhere for operational reasons.

Do your own cash flow forecast for the next eighteen months using the Plan figures and timings. Use your own conservative oil price predictions and build in a buffer for unforeseen circumstances. Then tell me of a better way to utilise the surplus funds in the second half 2020.

Is there any genuine GKP shareholder who thinks the current sp represents fair value?

Of course not, It’s a joke, or it would be if it wasn’t so serious, particularly for LTHs.

A phased buy back plan including share retirement (rather than withdrawal to treasury) would be an excellent cash investment in our undervalued stock and would result in a significant concentration of shareholder value benefitting us all.

Fewer and fewer shares coupled with an aggressive dividend policy funded by increasing monthly receipts ( anyone done a forecast cash flow for GKP according to their targets.....it’s stunning!) means we”d be showing real belief in our future and we’re prepared to prove it by our actions.

IndridCold,

‘Why risk cash on a purely window dressing ploy’,

I don’t understand.

Care to explain?

ANGINA,

Strikes me that the truly aggressive play would have been to launch a share buy back plan at the same time as the new dividend policy was initiated at the Capital Markets Day event in March.

SZ was quizzed on it and didn’t rule it out in the future.

Well the future’s now in my view.

Bravedog,

As I recall, at the Capital Market Day presentation SZ was asked about premier listing aspirations by an analyst during q &a’s.

His uncomfortable response referred to the strictures of FCA regulations and their incompatibility with the complexities of local negotiating necessities on the ground.

Cockeye,

That makes for depressing reading.

I assume you’re still here to catch back your losses maybe?

So let’s say that this MM bid pressure is maintained/magnified until their work is done.

How long can it go on?

‘Til the dividend dates are announced? ‘Maybe when we go ex dividend? What happens as we become aware of operational updates and progress? Will the MM activity follow?

Surely it will.

In which case this share will inevitably be a slow burn.

But in the end I take Ingrid’s view of the fundamentals.

And if that’s right then as long as the BoD perform against their own plan and timescales then this sp is one to watch for my money ( metaphorically and literally!),

Anyone know if this level of sustained pressure bidding by the MMs is normal?

They’ve been at it for nearly two months, every day, grinding out the shares to meet client needs.

Is that normal. That length of time and sustained pressure?

Too right ss. it’s still May and I’m taking punishment @ 35 degrees....I’ll never learn.

Sad thing is, I’m still reading the bb.....I need help!

Got a view on the AGM date? Mikey reckons the RNS might be imminent.

Hi Leem 1,

Lots of news upcoming, not least the AGM date with attendent dividend ramifications.

One word of advice. In my limited experience this bb can get a little ‘testy’ from time to time. But persevere ‘cos there’s some very informative stuff posted in amongst it all!

So don’t be put off!

Feelin’ that bb love all the way out here in Dubai.....can’t get enough.

Your definition makes my point.

He should be answerable if the strategic plan fails.

I don't doubt that PM works ss,

and I certainly don't expect JF to put his hard hat on and stand to come drill time!

But he's the CEO. His responsibilities are to the shareholders for delivery of the strategic plan. That's his job.

And he gets to do it any way he wants......but he'd better get his tactics right.

Who he hires, how he structures the implementation plan, what work plan is agreed, how it's managed, the time frames, these and many other matters are fully within his remit. That's what he gets paid for.

Because in the end, if it works he gets all the plaudits and his career progresses to bigger and better things.

But if it doesn't work, his name is on it. Forever. The PM and his team will get binned but it's Ferrier who carries the can with the shareholders. He couldn't survive that failure.

That's why he gets the BIG bucks.

ss

'All Ferrier will do is watch progress. So anyone blaming him is showing ( yet again ) a lack of understanding of the process.'

I used to work for a bloke who always took 'full responsibility' and always distinguished that from any accountability.

He lasted a nano.

At Ferrier's level there is no avoiding accountability. Whoever he puts in charge.

ss,

If GKP were to remain as an Owner Operator where's the downside?

As long as the BoD do what they've stated in production target terms then the share price is bound to respond in a material way....it has to because of the p&l outcomes.

Even more so as it's backed by a potentially robust dividend policy.

The question is, based on experience, whether we believe that the Board will step up and perform.

Indrid's two to three year performance profile looks very achievable to me.

The possibility of a sale is clearly an option and you can be sure that the big boys will have thrown their in-house analysts at the forward projections for the Company. And they will have formed a view.

But as shareholders I reckon we can do very well out of GKP in the next couple of years purely on its fundamentals.