Member Info for Straycat

ss,
That's right. CCC's post was obviously a BS post.

****eye,
Interestingly, mcfly02, that ADVFN Poster Boy, insulted me last night shortly after I called CCC out.
Do you think there's any connection there?

ADT1

Powerful and persuasive stuff .

Maybe Sami is CCC in drag!
It's about the only thing that'd make sense of that stupid, uninformed, irresponsible post.
And maybe sankeys is the make up artist given that he's introduced Noel Coward to the board.

CCC.,

You reply with deafening silence then.

In that case I am forced to the conclusion that your previous post was pure conjecture without any basis in fact whatsoever.
An opinion unsupported by any evidence, circumstantial or otherwise.
Maybe a rumour you overheard in a pub.
Perhaps Aunt Sally's nocturnal mumblings.
Or an epiphany.

Who cares?

If you have an opinion to express that's fine, unsupported or not. It's what the bb's for.

But if you pass yourself off as someone with greater, and in this case inside, knowledge, then you'd better be able to substantiate it, or you look stupid at best.

In My Opinion.

CCC.,

How do you know about sensitive Boardroom discussions concerning Sami's future at GKP?

Because if you don't know, then you shouldn't be putting out that you do.

You assert as fact that:
'Sami had different views to other members of the Board and as far as I'm aware a understanding was reached that he would continue in his position until an appropriate replacement was found,'

Where's your evidence for this assertion?

You continue to assert as fact that:
'there is no ill feeling between Sami and other board members, it's business as normal.'

Please enlighten us....how do you know this??

If you can't back up this claim then we will regard your post accordingly.

Hi CCC.,

Excellent. And how do you know this ?

Sami’s ‘Directorate Change’ RNS of 3/6/2019 makes it clear that he leaves with all his nil cost share options intact.

Under the now defunct VCP, SZ was granted c.a. 3.6m nil cost share options as follows:

307k on 12/12/2016 @ £1.19 per share, as note 22 of 2016 full year results;
1682k on 14/5/2018 @ £1.69 per share, as RNS dated 15/5/2018 ;
1566k on 30/4/2019 @ £2.56 per share as RNS dated 1/5/2019;

Unless I’ve completely misunderstood the VCP, SZ profit on full exercise of nil cost options will be:

Weighted average Share Price @ end of VCP period £3.00 £4.00 £5.00 £6.00
307k @ £1.19 £556k £863k £1170k £1477k
1682k @£1.69 £2203k £3885k £5567k £7249k
1566k @£2.56 £689k £2255k £3821k £5387k

TOTAL PROFIT ON EXERCISE OF ALL OPTIONS £3448K £7003K £10558K £14113K

Obviously the maths change depending on the chosen sp, and some may think even £6.00 is very conservative over a five year period to 2022, given the 110k bopd plan.

But any way you see the projected sp, Sami potentially walks with a multi million pay-out even though the reasons for his departure are, as yet, unexplained. (My views on this are a matter of record).
And the final grant of 1.6m nil cost options was made by the Remunerations Committee just one month before the announcement of his departure, thereby nearly doubling his total grant entitlement immediately before the end of his tenure.
These shares need finding (one stated reason for the share buyback resolution), and paying for.
So why was it so important to the Board to treat him in this way?
If he resigned why would they enrich him for leaving?
And if he was fired then why reward failure?
After all the VCP was originally conceived to
‘encourage the retention of Executive Directors and other key executives…….’

Please DYOR.
All of the above is IMHO.

The fact that there was no resignation reference anywhere in the 3/6/19 RNS announcing Sami Zouari’s departure is troubling.

Normally, where the resignation is voluntary, the departing Director will outline his reasons for leaving. Not in this case.
Normally he will want to indicate his future plans. Not in this case.
Normally, he will thank the Board and his peer group for their continued support and goodwill. Not in this case.
Because of the above it’s not unreasonable to conclude that his departure was involuntary.

I reckon he was unceremoniously fired.

And if that's right, it’s unlikely that JF fired him. He may have been instrumental, but he was too closely associated with Sami’s actions to do the deed. In fact the two of them seemed positively joined at the hip come any announcement time (interestingly he always let Sami take the credit for the corporate initiatives though).
Also, by being seen to fire Sami, JF would have drawn the fire on himself, something he would be unable to withstand.
And obviously JF’s dismissal would have rendered GKP headless, quite apart from the likelihood that simultaneous dismissal of the two most prominent Board Executives would bring legitimate Market concerns raining down on the Company as to its commercial integrity.

That leaves Jaap Huijskes and the other Non Execs in the frame as Sami’s executioners, possibly under JF’s direction. Certainly with his approval.

Ironically JF may well have been saved as the only remaining Executive Director on the Board.
That’s a bit odd as well. Normally the key executive officers would be better represented at Board level, particularly at this operationally sensitive stage in the production development strategy.

But JF has now positioned himself as the pivotal figure directing information flow between the Board and the senior managers. No more Sami for an alternative view.
How will the Board really know what’s going on unless JF enables them? Does he really command that level of trust at Board level? It would seem so.

Very powerful man then.

And how will senior management view this latest turn of events?
Well you can bet that senior management talk is rife with such speculation. Particularly those at the field development sharp end. The likes of Stuart Catterall, Ross Deutscher and Bertrand Demont. Poor bastards, they can’t even hear what the Board are saying about them unless it’s through the dulcet tones of JF. I’d be worried if I were them.

Weathervane has called this Company dysfunctional….I reckon he’s got a point.

So what went wrong for Sami?
As Harold MacMillan once said, ‘Events dear boy, events’.
And a liberal sprinkling of internal ( and possibly external) company politics I reckon.
But is the search for scapegoats complete?

All IMO.

Surrey,

I never subscribed to that particular playground mantra. In my experience words can do real damage if left in the wrong, manipulative hands.

I prefer this view:

‘Sticks and stones may break my bones
But words can also hurt me.
Sticks and stones beak only skin,
While words are ghosts that haunt me….’
Signedemmajane.com.

I know better than to post as I did yesterday. We all have a duty of care, one to the other.

The last thing we need here is Blue on Blue fire.

Pu t it down to the fact that I’d just come off a Drivers Awareness course.
And a word to the wise;

Take the points, its less punishing than that FOUR HOURS OF PURE PURGATORY!!!!

surrey,

Thanks for the clarification.

surreyscot,

In connection with possible delays to work programmes and management culpability, you posted this morning that:

‘It is certainly not the competence of the BOD because they dont carry out the work – Its contracted out. This is yet another false rumour.’

And yet on 10/7/2019 you posted on JF behaviour as follows:

‘ He (JF) is now reporting delays with procuring the ESPs and the entire 40k/55k programme has slipped. Some sort of “Act of God” in JF’s mind perhaps, rather than the far more obvious failure to achieve his publicly-stated objectives?’

And then,

‘Quite what the chairman and the senior director think about the performance of JF,SZ and their senior executive team really is anyone’s guess. I personally doubt that they would be very impressed, unless they are in charge of the brakes or are under someone’s thumb. SZ has surprisingly gone and nobody seems to know why. Is he going to be joined by JF? We shall see. Losing the pair of them in one go would cause panic and would surely be a last resort. Replace the CFO first, then the CEO?’

You can’t hold both positions simultaneously surreyscot.

Either JF evades culpability having contracted out his responsibilities to a third party.
(Note: like that’s possible when you’re on his earnings package!!)

Or he is failing ‘to achieve his publicly-stated objectives’ in which case, as you suggest, he should be replaced.

So which is it?

You’ve never operated at Boardroom level have you?

That’s the only plausible explanation for your contradictory posts on the matter of Director accountability.

****eye,

Listen, I'm in enough trouble already for not doing theoryman's prep'...I think I've been given a detention.

Is that to me ****eye?

If it is, then I quite liked Mikey's view of an sp rise following IIs leaving with their dividend payments tucked under their arms.

It was his 'bread' analogy that I thought was pretty ropey.

I asked two questions of your approach:

1) How it helps an understanding of GKP share price performance;
2) And can it give any indication as to future performance.

You haven’t answered the first.
You just set me some homework for you to mark and explain later.

Your answer to the second was;
‘Where is GKP going next? Could be up or down or maybe sideways.’

Hmm…

So I think I’ll just stick with my more primitive fundamentals approach to share selection.

But thanks for trying to educate me all the same.

Mikey,

So like I suggested as an option earlier, just around the corner then....perhaps there’ll be enough dough to make the bread!

Mikey,

Your bread shop analogy doesn’t work because in it there is no bread to sell, unlike the stock market ‘shop’, where there are GKP shares to sell……..still never mind about that.

The point is that there are shares to sell, (unlike in your bread analogy) but the buyers aren’t offering enough to tempt the sellers out.
Or the sellers want too much.
Either way the buyers need to offer more for the shares than currently if they want them; eventually they’ll work that out.

Ergo the logical conclusion to your argument is not that there are no shares to sell, but rather that the buyers want them too cheaply.

FH1,

Not doubting GKP’s pre dilution problems, nor their consequent Stockopedia positioning.
Similarly I applaud that rerating following the ‘clear up’.
And GKP are definitely in my top ten hot list as I guess they’re in yours. Even at your 2% investment exposure.

Not my point.

What bothers me is that I cannot understand why the sp is not responding to this widespread approval. It’s not just Stockopedia, just look around.

And the Share Register tells its own story.

So why the sp intransigence then?

It’s an easy default to senior management inadequacies as a reason for sp lethargy because we can all see them. (Ouch! I think I just kicked myself in the b*llocks!!)

Yet that cannot be the whole answer.

It could be that the Markets are justifiably uncertain given our chequered history. If that’s the case then we’d better do as we say we will, and when we say we’ll do it. Otherwise where’s the trust?

It might be that my concerns are unfounded and that given recent Board corporate activity the sp uplift is just round the corner.

And it might be that there are other events in play about which we can know nothing, but which might explain what’s going on.

But certainly my hopes lie in the share buyback and dividend policies coupled with my view that this Company share is basically and massively undervalued, given its fundamentals for success.

And, unfortunately, my hope also rests on the Board being able to follow through, whatever the difficulties. GKP will definitely stand or fall on its ability to deliver so I guess we just have to wait for GKP deeds to do the talking.

Thoughts?

FlyingHorse1,

Well Hallelujah to that.

I'm pretty sure that's why and how I invested in GKP in the first place...its fundamentals.

Didn't use Buffet though. Maybe next time?

Seen Stockopedia and just like The Monte Carlo Effect it doesn't explain GKPs woeful SP.

In fact I can't find much that does.

Theoryman,

Following your unfathomable posts, and to my eternal shame, I googled The Monte Carlo Effect and was immediately broken on the wheels of algorithmic science.

So, in the simplest, preferably one syllable, words please tell me how such analysis helps an understanding of GKP share price performance.

More particularly, can it give any indication as to future performance?

And if so, why isn’t everyone using it? And how wealthy are you!!!!!

Forgive my ignorance, I’ve spent a lifetime developing it, my ignorance that is.

According to the June 21st operational update PF-1 was shut down on 10th June for 15-20 days.

Prior to the commencement of this maintenance and improvement work, PF-1 was producing 38.1k bopd thus enabling an average annual field production rate of 29k bopd during Phase 1 development.

The full year production guidance was unchanged at 32k-38k bopd although we were advised that it would be at the lower end of that range.

So however you look at it, PF-1 performance is critical to GKP.

Has this work now been completed?

And if it is back up and running, is it performing at pre shut down levels i.e. 38.1kbopd?

If it is now fit for purpose, and the Market knew, then it might precipitate a review of GKP potential based target line achievement and production fact, not forecast.

And if PF-1 isn’t yet back in production, then we have a right to know that as well.