Member Info for Straycat

****eye,

Seems it depends what sort of account it's in....ISAs seem to be delayed?

TheDonofDons,

Ferguson's title is 'Executive Chairman' of Solo. In that capacity when he bought into Block I reckon he would have had an issue under S175 of the Companies Act because of the potential conflict of interest arising.

In those circumstances it's almost certain he would have raised the matter with the Solo Board, seeking their approval, which he presumably got.

Now we're in a situation where Solo, a declared acquisitive O & G Company, seeking new assets in Europe, through their operational Chairman own 5% of Block. With their Board's knowledge and approval imo.

What is he/are they up to?

And just after the adoption of Special Resolution 12.

Gizzard,

Thanks for that link, much appreciated.....another powerful interview oozing confidence and belief in the Company and its potential for rapid development.

Loved the stuff about shareholder value and likely sp performance.

Excellent.

bigbench,

That was me. Give us a break, you should see our equivalent in action....compare and contrast.

Have a look at Paul Haywood’s interview on Proactive Investor earlier today if you want a scent of what selling a Company’s future really looks like.

Then look at the sp response (Block Energy :Bloe).

Hope you’re reading this JF…..

Trigg,

Keeps me sane and the numnuts confused, what’s not to like?

I write this note because you’re not being open with me and you need to know how I feel about that.

When we first met, you swept me away with your promises of things to come, and I gave our relationship everything I had. Namely all my spare cash which you took in a heartbeat, promising transparency and an information share covering every twist and turn of our journey together.

But now you’ve gone very quiet on me. You don’t call, you don’t write, in fact I rarely know what you’re up to. Last time I saw you was at the Capital Markets Day and you were very subdued. Sami seemed to take centre stage (and all the glory) for announcing that new dividend policy.
Why did we feel the need to do that now by the way? It’s not that I don’t welcome it, I do. But I’d like to know why now?

Anyway, Sami’s suddenly gone and without a word….are you in trouble Jon?

You see this lack of transparency only leads to misunderstandings and rumour. Like where’s that export pipeline that should have been completed mid year and won’t be ready for another three months? How big's that pipe?

Or why are we so far behind your schedule taking us to 55kbopd? It’s been pushed back twice now. Is it really just Q1 2020 back to Q2? Or is it death by a thousand cuts? You do know both the P&L and our capex payback plan will be critically affected by any delays don’t you? And it’s not as if we don’t have enough money to cope with operational problems as they occur along the way to more oil being pumped. Or is it something more fundamental?

And what’s with the FPD....what are you actually proposing to alleviate MNR concerns?

As for that share buyback initiative, were you bounced into it? Certainly you have now adopted a policy that had only recently been discussed and discounted at Board level. Why?

These and many other questions remain unanswered.

So I can’t help thinking things have slipped between us and all that early enthusiasm for our relationship, which was once so sexy and compelling.
You’ve changed Jon, not me, and you’re now engaged in sterile platitudes and apologies for your lacklustre performance. The pressure’s on and you need to be seen to respond. Because I can’t go on like this, not knowing.

At the very least I ask that you do what you say you’re going to do. Otherwise, where is the trust?

I want that share price sex back. I want those financially ravaging orgasms like last August. I’ll never forget that exhilarating month when every day was accompanied by a new sp orgasmic wave, with expectations of so much more to come.

What happened to us Jon?

I’m not leaving, though God only knows I’ve thought about it, I just want you to get your mojo back.

Please, talk to me Jon, help me understand.

Don’t be a stranger.

With deep affection,

Straycat.


(credit : LongStrong!)

This is exactly what we've been waiting for.
Better still was the following:
'we are preparing a detailed operations update which we look forward to sharing with the market shortly, setting out our busy schedule over the next 12 to 18 months'.
What a tease!

LS,
Ah yes, JF.
I know what a business leader of men looks like, and he's simply not it.
My views on JF are a matter of record. It seems to me that we've appointed a tier two manager to develop a tier one asset.
And you're right, GKP needs relentless selling both inside and outside of the business.
But don't get me started, I'm out to dinner tonight!

LongStrong,

Apart fro increasing production and operating a dividend policy along with a buyback initiative, what more should/could the Board do to address our anemic share price in your view?

Or is it just a timing issue?

trx 01

Thank you, much appreciated.

BroadfordBay,

Not wishing to misquote you, but am I right in summarising your concerns as:

1) Failure to hit target time lines for production increases;
2) FPD approval reticence on the part of the MNR;
3) Fears of cost overruns due to the unspecified reasons for 2) above?

Because if they are then:

a) The best information we have is that the 55k bopd time line has been moved by one quarter (not two). So what? It happens..nobody likes it but.at least we know about it;
b) The reasons for FPD delay are well documented and have been addressed in the resubmission of 23/5 'to address additional MNR requests on gas management';
c) What 'funding implications', 'behind' what?

The clarity you refer to is yours to address.

Meanwhile the dividends are coming as are the buybacks and share concentration, both of which will continue to apply upward pressure on the sp. Oh yes, and then there's that constant monthly cash feed which will only keep on growing along with production plan increases.

I don't doubt that there are problems with GKP, but the ones we can see are being addressed.

Right now I have no understanding of the real operational ambitions of this business, which is a shame given:

a) The declared and growing cash balances;
b) 2019 forecast performance given Q4 2018 outcomes;
c) My exposure!

Can anyone help me?

Distressed,

I'm not big on false hope, and you pose the $64,000 question.

But here's some of the things the Board might consider to inject life into the sp:

1) A planned, coordinated, and crucially, sustained assault on sp lethargy.

The recent dividend policy announcement was disconnected from the share buyback initiative. They might both have been announced at the CMD for maximum impact. The fact that they weren't suggests that the two were dislocated from each other, the share buyback only introduced when there was no immediate sp impact after the dividend declaration.
It's almost like they sat around the Boardroom table and under A.O.B. discussed what to do about their market capitalisation given the palpable failure of the VCP. And then that great Harvard Hope Sami unveiled the dividend plan with a magician's flourish as the answer to all their woes. The share buyback was discussed, Sami told us that at the CMD, but was sidelined. The dividend 'trick' would do it!
Only when that was proved wrong did the share buyback take centre stage. They should have been launched in tandem. I said so at the time.

2) A sustained, targeted, high profile market offensive selling the Phoenix from the Flames story and all the good things going on in the business now. Celicourt are not the Agency you would choose to do that job;

3) A new management incentive to production achievement and individual bonuses. These would be specific to bopd increases and agreed time frames using the Strategic five year plan as the start point, then broken down into quarterly phasing. Nothing motivates a workforce like tangible, achievable targets and aggressive bonuses for achievement;

4) A leader capable of instilling that Company self belief and confidence both inside and outside the business to any audience.

In short, a new CEO with Boardroom autonomy.

Wiseman72,

I bought in last year (more by good luck than good judgment!) so there but for the grace of God go I.

Nevertheless I have tried to sit in the LTHs shoes and they don't feel at all comfortable....it's difficult not to conclude that you were taken to the cleaners.

One of the Board's jobs now is to get you survivors some/all of your money back....I'm just not sure they see it that way.

Wiseman72,

I bought into the GKP dream because of the sexy fundamentals; no debt, crazy cash generation, fully funded growth plan, stupidl intrinsic profitability etc etc.

All long this before the latest step change in sp motivational dynamics.

And I have no regrets...your list simply reinforces my judgment.

The one thing I didn't factor in was the competence of the Board to enact the plan.

For me the jury is still definitely out on that one, although I take Sami's departure as a very positive sign. And given market response, so do our larger investors because the sp barely moved on the announcement.

I still keep coming back to the same basic question: Who is really running GKP?

Unless we're clear about that we can't possibly have confidence in the decision making process.....

There are four indisputable facts about recent GKP Board activity:

1) The much vaunted VCP is no more;
2) A new and aggressive dividend policy has been agreed;
3) Sami Zouari has left without any explanation at all for his departure;
4) GKP is now enabled to engage in significant share buy back activity.

I reckon these facts are related, one to the other.

The VCP was established to secure senior 'key drivers' by rewarding them for their success in managing the strategic objective of the business. This was namely the creation of value by implementing the five year strategic production plan and the capex funding that underpins it.
The VCP failed primarily because it was based on market capitalisation growth, much of which is out of their (the Board's) direct control. How can Catterall hope to be able to influence global oil prices, or the erratic nature of share trading on the LSE, or any number of other factors that can and do affect sp sentiment on a daily basis..
To be truly value creative, the VCP needed to cover those targets that really determine sp growth....the exponential production uplifts already specified in the strategic plan. If the Board had been incentified by incremental bopd then their performance would have been immediately transparent and obvious to all shareholders. (if anyone is interested, I can demonstrate such a plan in operation).
So it was dumped and replaced with something more direct and tangible.More effective in terms of sp development. Hello dividend plan.

Sami's departure is a mystery because no explanation was given as to the reasons for his leaving...none at all. One possibility is that he was too closely associated with the much maligned VCP and its abject failure to achieve its raison d'etre, that being the creation of real shareholder value.

Anyway, shortly after his departure we are now introduced to another tool for sp enhancement...the share buy back facility.

The advent of the dividend and the buy back facility are clearly designed to develop the sp. But I do hope that the Board doesn't sit back now, thinking its work is done.

Real incentives still need to be put in place, ones that the 'key drivers' understand and can directly relate to.

Targeted increases to bopd output, in line with, and on time with, shareholders expectations would do that job immediately and transparently.

There's only 57m shares outstanding.

At 65p they'd cost him £37m.

So why wouldn't he take RPT private? It'd cost him slightly more than this year's forecast profit.

Then he keeps all future profits for himself.

He doesn't need investment cash...so why wouldn't he go private now?

Cockeye,

The dividend and the buyback schemes should both have been announced at the CMD.

I recall describing the Board as 'lightweights' for not doing so.

In any event, this might go to a bettter understanding of how decisions are being really being made at GKP, and who's making them.

Clearly the Board have decided to get more aggressive with the sp and its performance...not before time.