Member Info for Straycat

Bravedog,

'If it isn't, the hurdle will be today's price +8%'

Not sure I understand. Could you explain please?

Hi Cockeye,

Zouari looked distinctly uncomfortable throughout. Ferrier didn't fair any better.

No presence, either of them. But they're going to get their 'boring oil Company', I have no doubt.

A massive missed opportunity imo.

The new dividend policy stipulates $25m per year with a further potential dividend, circumstances permitting.

And while that dividend is strictly regulated and capped, the BoD and other 'key drivers' enjoy unfettered and growing wealth on the back of a VCP engineered to protect and develop their financial interests exponentially and exclusively.

The share buy back and dividend options were not mutually antagonistic...they could have easily ran in parallel given the cash generative basis of the business model.

And as for that 10% coupon on the $100m loan not being expensive!.... grow up Zami.

This was a piss poor performance from a trio of mundane middle managers with no ambition.

Lightweights.

Cockeye,

Give it time.

That dividend yield coupled with the strategic self funding growth plan is enough to interest new long term investors like the Pension Funds.

And that's not ramping, it's just common sense.

Oh ye of little faith.

Despite the cost of the SV-12 work over, the underlying cash receipts should sweep the cash balances past $60m by 31/03/19 imo.
$65m looks a bit of a stretch though.
But steven49 is right about RPT's investor relations approach which is borderline woeful.
They must have plans for that cash, but if they have, they're not sharing them with us.
Meanwhile each week that cash pile just keeps on growing.

What was going on in Pinchuk's mind when he became involved in August 2018, then building to 28.65% earlier this year?
He clearly isn't in it for a quick buck because of his entry points and the fact that he kept his holding through the December highs.
And the fact that he upped his stake in February is testament to his belief in the Company.

So what's he doing if not positioning himself for something else?

.

Hi Krok,

My analysis assumes that the work over on SV-12 was completed mid July 2018, and paid for out of cash reserves.This would help explain the depleted cash balances in your Q4.

So anyone know what the work over might have cost? For want of better info' I plugged in$ $2m....any other better informed views?

And how much might the increased production from the work over have generated, given that the profits are a 50/50 split between RPT and NJSC Ukrnafta?

In any event, that cash forecast needs explaining.

.

Obviously should read $59.94m cash balance estimate @ 31/3/19, not 31/3/18.

Apologies.

Hi Krok,

While I believe that there's much more to the share price than the cash balances, nevertheless:

2018 Interim cash balance $40m
2018 Full Year cash balance $53.3m
Cash Balance gain $13.3m
No. Trading Weeks 26
Average Weekly increase $0.511m
Q1 = 13 weeks @ $0.511 $$6.64m

So, Q1 + 2018 Full Year = $59.94m cash balance estimate as at 31/3/18.

Notes - takes no account of SV-12 workover which will have been paid for out of cash receipts.
- takes no account of production uplifts from SV-12 and consequent additional cash build
- takes no account of licence suspension (minimal impact).
- takes no account of any extraordinary operational costs of which we are unaware.

Cash balances will be in excess of $60m @ 31/1/2019 imo.

MOL's integration strategy won't work because oil specialists don't know how to drive trucks or ring tills.

But, that aside, and accepting possible State intervention, I wouldn't want to be accountable for a p&l over which I had very limited control.

I'd at least want to look at managing my oil price exposure, and hedging alone won't do it.

Hungary is a small trading nation, and MOL's numbers are significant.

Lost money in 2015 and 2016.

Bravedog,

So you have been looking!

MOL's much vaunted vertical integration strategy is now in direct conflict with their stated 'green' goals.

Virtually all of their tangible assets are in Europe with 84% in Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia.

Their geographic sales are 99% European based.

But their product sales are heavily crude oil and oil product dependent, representing 72% of all sales last year.

This makes their p&l very oil price sensitive and consequently they lost money in 2016 and 2017.

Hence the move to a 'greener' strategy which is less p&l volatile.

Trouble is, Shaikan isn't an easy fit anymore IMO.

They've got time to develop their green credentials, their balance sheet is strong and they're only 26% geared. But last year their turnover grew 24% and their profits stagnated.

So what to do about Shaikan when they so reliant on crude oil sales and yet so vulnerable to the price of oil?

Trouble is, their senior management payroll was only £2.6m last year, raising questions about the current Board calibre.

But what to do about Shaikan?

It may be that we're looking in the wrong direction.

Bravedog,

Have you looked at MOL?

Mikey,

I'll do better than that...I'll post it shortly.

Incidentally, Tom's got a point!!!

That is truly impressive.

Mine's in the workshop right now, being restored to its original glory.

I'm not equipped to d.i.y.....I'd only screw it up.

Parity10,

FCF = Free Cash Flow.

One of the many exciting aspects of this play.

I'll keep buying share at any drop below 45p because it is great value.....Krok's rantings notwithstanding.

I know invstrat,

But looked at from their perspective they have every incentive to maximise the market cap...the bigger it is, the more they’re worth.

And the biggest market cap comes on sale.....

Invrastat,

'In the event of a change of control or a voluntary winding up of the Company (other than an internal reorganisation) there will be a Measurement Date on the change of control and the value of additional options will be calculated as at any other Measurement Date. The share price used to calculate the Measurement Total Shareholder Return will be the offer price for the Company.'

So they win whichever way it pans out.

Like I said,I really want to be a VCP participant.

I really want to be a VCP participant.....

s/b five year market cap @$686m....$ not £.