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On the positive side, the trading volume is pretty good for GDR. If it keeps up like this they might get agreement from Rf to do another drawdown in early Feb. But the volume isn't really great news for shareholders because RF sells into it and dumps the shares. Currently, they have £1.3m in the bank with another £800k on the way through a tax credit within the next couple of months. The problem is they'll still need to tap some kind of funding to get product into US even if they somehow keep getting drawdowns from RF. With basic cash burn of £400k per month, they still only just chugging along.
FDA application itself costs far less than that. But you usually have to do testing on US soil, which costs money. A couple o of years ago,GDR gave an estimate of £2m to do that work. It could be a bit more than that now given inflation, though there is a downturn in this particular industry going on at the moment, so maybe it could be roughly the same.
Perhaps it's more to do with the outcome as they're going for a jury trial by the sounds of it. And also personally doubt the motivation for getting it transferred to Illinois from Texas is just about "efficiency."
A recent update:
https://www.courthousenews.com/texas-turkey-antitrust-suit-heads-to-the-windy-city/
So what is the person quoted in that article, Alex Cutler, getting at?
I thought this par from the recent Investors Chronicle article was interesting:
"But sovereign credit enforcement proceedings are different to a commercial judgement in a US court, and Burford has historically shown an amazing ability to deliver what its clients are owed from the most recalcitrant defendants.”
Does this mean Burford will soon be able to impound Argentine embassy cars in Washington, whereas with the other kind of proceedings they wouldn't be able to?
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/shares-i-love-burford-capital/
"The Group's current cash runway is limited; unaudited cash as at 23 November 2023 was £1m and further funding will be required in early 2024 in order to continue as a going concern. The further payment of £0.3m pursuant to the Investor Placing Agreement announced on 29 November 2023 is due to be received shortly."
This means they only have roughly £900k in the bank as of now (with 400k monthly cash burn). They should get about £50k from sending those samples to the overseas distributors though. lol
Best case scenario for current shareholders is a genuine placing at 6p in my based on current share price. No way of knowing what actual agreed price will be, that's if they do get a proper placing agreed.
Hopefully, if they'll manage to raise funds through a genuine fundraising with a real business plan (not more death spiral) and it will be investable again. Even with a genuine fundraising and business plan, very common for this kind of company to come back for more. But at least you don't have odd things going on in the background with death spiral and very, very short term situation before funding runs out.
Incredible isn't it. They sent some samples to their distributors. What next....DYOR lol.
Would expect they will announce something quite soon about funding now. It wouldn't make any sense to wait. But it not a certain that they will get the funding they need/want at this juncture. I'll be looking for proper II investors coming on board (not death spiral specialists) and will want a proper sales forecast/business plan laid out. If it turns out to be another dodgy death spiral sticking plaster of sorts, then it won't be good news if they then run out of money again in 6-12 months from now.
If you read the RNS, they've just sent some samples to the overseas distributors:
"The initial orders will support genedrive's international distribution partners in promotion and in-country evaluation activities in their respective countries, to provide more extensive access to this life-changing test."
The RNS has a good title though. Next RNS will be about a fundraise surely, seeing as they have little left in the bank.
Jimi, The day after they did the last RF drawdown they issued an RNS warning that they couldn't rely on RF drawdowns!
Mr Cheek doesn't mention RF in is presentation or the going concern issue (as the results RNS does). But this is quite normal with fundraises. They always tie them to something positive. In this case, they're making it clear that the fundraise planned for early 2024/January is going to be marketed to investors on the basis that getting FDA approval could change the company's fortunes.
That University of Sussex NHS Trust have another neonatal unit at Haywards Heath, so it's not quite the whole of the trust that have adopted AIHL as yet, just the unit at Brighton.
https://www.uhsussex.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Steps-to-Home.pdf
Lol, Jimi that's not quite what GDR are saying:
"Further drawdowns are conditional on meeting certain share trading criteria, which are set out in note 6 and were also set out in the Company's circular issued on 24 April 2023 and therefore further drawdowns cannot be considered as guaranteed. The Board is planning for an equity or debt raise in early 2024 to support the growth and development plans of the business and allow the Group to continue to operate as a going concern. "
Lol Jimi, That's not
Though obviously, they will want to get all this covered with one raise, if they can. My guess is all this will come to about £10 million.
Roger, GDR's commentary in the results RNS states they are looking for three sets of funding as I read it. One is for FDA (which they've previously said would cost about £2m, though this was some time ago when they gave that estimate.)
From 30 November RNS:
1. "The Group's current cash runway is limited...... further funding will be required in early 2024 in order to continue as a going concern."
2. "We are now looking at funding options to take us forward for FDA approval for the MT-RNR1 product, with substantially all of the exploratory groundwork completed we are ready to proceed to the next step."
3. "Future funding would also be required to support the ongoing development of the instrumentation allowing us to capitalise on our pharmacogenetic positioning in emergency care and add further tests to our existing menu."
"because of having a new CEO"
This is the story of GDR. BIg, costly failures for IIs and Pis in trying to use the platform for infectious diseases. Now they only focusing on "pharmagenics" but it's a long and uncertain road to get to real commercial success. There's low or no competition but it's painfully slow at the moment getting hospitals/governments/insurers to adopt this new technology. I very much doubt Brighton came about because of having a CEO. The process of getting them to fully adopt it for routine use must have started at least 6 months ago IMO.