Member Info for stockdale

Trouble is any legal decision is likely to go in favour of the Slovene government. I look back at the Court decision in 2016. The IPPC was withdrawn when the law stated that any permit granted or even applied for before the change in the law would be decided on with regard to the previous law. The Court decision was given based on the later law. So I may be forgiven for being pessimistic when it comes to legal decisions in Slovenia.

I didn't include permits as a way forward as I think it's clear the government is not going to issue them positively but will only procrastinate, as they have done all along over several years, and will not actually say 'no' but just not 'yes'.

Realistically we have two options of a compressor and legal action. Legal action is tricky as it may not be successful and does tend to take a long time. It also sets AST against the government making any future cooperation very difficult.

I understand a compressor can be used without further permits and that for me would be the cleanest and best way forward. It needs to be accessed as soon as possible, Q4 is too long a wait as the gas flow is reducing all the time. JB has been completely silent. He's the expert on this and should be involved at the forefront.

I am getting less and less confident in Colin's ability to move this forward successfully. I haven't been that confident since the successful move of the pipeline to INA in Croatia was completed. It's all been downhill since then.

The current SP means selling up is hardly worth it. We just have to hope that something pops out from behind the scenes which Colin isn't able to mention until it happens. The SP needs to have a push up with some good news. Even if AST needs more money from a placing the current SP is at an absurd level to have one.

I thought JB was the cowboy?

The environmental activists are a convenient excuse for the government to follow the Russian preference for Slovenia to buy their gas from Russia.

Some of us have been suckered in to AST on the basis of proven gas in the ground and ten wells in place and just needing reopening or stimulation. The engineering situation is straight forward with the latest technology available.

The problem for AST is politics. Geonergo are the local Slovene partners for AST who should have had influence. They were producing gas already at Petisovci for decades before AST got involved in November 2004.

Can AST get justice from any litigation? I would doubt it. For me the best solution is to use a compressor as soon as possible to increase production from whatever the amount is in Q4 and to move on to a country willing to accept a foreign company and with an attitude that allows gas production. Croatia is doing so and has a gas processing plant, run by INA and AST have a current relationship with INA.

We need strong influence in the government to get permits. Without permits we need JB to get the compressor and increase the gas flow by up 7 times.

The former requires someone with substantial contacts and influence with the key people in government. That's something geonergo should have, but haven't. They are the Slovene engineering partner.

The latter requires a compressor sourced by JB and installed as soon as possible. Apparently that is going to take until Q4, although we've heard nothing further.

As usual the theory looks good for AST. In practice they seem to not get it right.

You started badly in your post New80 but finished more reasonably. Colin's an accountant. Was John's illness at the last presentation an avoidance action on his part or genuine? It was certainly very inconvenient for shareholders. We needed the expert (whatever Alwaysup implies) to be there. Not being there was a severe blow as an expert would be believed by the market. Colin would not be believed because he's not an expert and has a poor track record. We should also have heard directly from John since then. We haven't.

Anyone would have had problems with this Slovene government. To deal with this situation would have required insider help within the government. It's clear Colin did not have such connections. This is politics, not an oil and gas issue. The gas is there, the wells are there and just need modern techniques to extract it more efficiently.

Ranting doesn't help.

Alan, Long termers here can not be accused of impatience. The situation at AST has been going on for years, not just months. It keeps morphing in to another situation where hopes are raised, only to be dashed by a government decision.

The Slovene government do not want this gas, or if they do they are being overwhelmed by the environmental activist brigade. We are waiting for common sense to prevail with a scientific and engineering approach to the situation rather than a sky is falling in environmental activist approach to the situation.

Reso, as a keyboard warrior you of course feel your 'advice' is important. Most people follow the advice of not investing on the basis of forum advice.

Over the years your posts have sniped at others and have come across as self important. You will forgive me if I follow the advice of not setting much store by your 'advice'.

Possibly. We had Colin in charge before and he has only been in post for four years or so. He's an accountant. John B. is an oil and gas expert. He's also been quiet, although I understand he was quite enthusiastic at the presentation before last (he was ill at the last one). Whether that enthusiasm was misplaced and his silence is an indication of that is an issue. The belief was that there is a lot more under the ground, nearer the surface and deeper than current wells, that could be accessed. We wait with anticipation and the market slumbers.

JP needs to balance the eventual money gained from litigation against the time needed for such litigation to be resolved. Leigh Creek has just started and will take some months to ramp up fully and other clients at Cobre are fairly minor. So there will be an income hole for a few months. JP is therefore trying to get the Cobre main client to cough up sooner without reverting to litigation.

Indeed it's nice to hear from JP. It shows he's dealing with things, as we've had little communication recently.

It also shows a confirmation of what had been said previously but, considering the recent issues, we weren't entirely sure what was said was actually happening. Certainly the market needed information, even if some here have confidence.

It would seem the sensitivity of the Cobre client situation and the NAE Redmoor negotiations may explain the recent silence from the BoD.

I would hope John is in a better position than we are to make the right decision on the compressor. Our concern is would it be the right decision for shareholders or for them. They're not shareholders, or have very few shares. Their decision could therefore be based on their long term income as Directors.

Hope you're right. Market needs convincing.

Correct Kashdog. Except I would say the compressor may be worthwhile. Use it as soon as possible with a view to increasing production as much as possible for as long as possible. That is for at least the time left until the licence expiry date. That way AST get the maximum income in the time allowed. They have no current debt but they also have very little cash for any Croatian bids.

Of course Colin and John may take the alternative view of not spending on a compressor, accepting the current gas flow rate and using the money saved plus the current income to move on.

I think that perversely the Slovene government may grant an extension to the licence as that would show them to be 'reasonable' in law. That would make it difficult for AST's legal case. In the same way that the Slovene government can show they have granted the IPPC when it is now not of much use unless the stimulation permits are also granted. The Slovene government is managing the situation with a view to the legal position. Without a compressor the Slovene government may also see that AST are getting little gas out and a reducing amount with time. As with the IPPC reasoning they may see that extending the licence would then have little effect on increased future gas production from Petisovci.

Ultimately Colin has to realise that Slovenia has to be a managed decline and to get out to Croatia as soon as possible.

Currently the SP is very disappointing. I've been in SML for two and a half years now and can remember thinking in the second half of last year that the SP would be well up by now. The Cobre main client should be back and Leigh Creek production would be starting up. Instead we have market uncertainty with the Cobre main client causing problems, a lack of news on Leigh Creek and the 50% purchase of Redmoor in an unknown state of finance. JP and PW have gone quiet. The market takes a dim view and the SP slides back a bit. A weekend to reflect on this is not good.

Interesting. Just re-read the RNS, without your bracketed comments. I took the word 'supported' to mean 'participated'. Strict linguistic meaning may be as you say but I read it as they bought in to the placing, otherwise why mention them?

As trout said he's just wrong about Manners. He must have misunderstood. No need for confrontation. Just needs pointing out politely.

All I see is the end of yet another week with the SP at rock bottom. Jam next week? Any particular flavour? With or without toast and tea?

I actually wonder whether JP doesn't want to podcast about the present situation because he may be concerned he would say something he may regret. I would think the way the Cobre main client have given them the run around has really annoyed him. A blunt Aussie approach may be unwise.