The volumes are tiny - everyone is holding for whatever news is coming. Seems a bit of a stretch to suggest that Capstone are reducing because of a few 5m sells... or were they buys!!!
Upside potential is massive here!
Euston2283 - I'd like him to communicate way more too but I guess that it's at these times when holders want more comms that CEO's are in the middle of getting deals done and can't communicate. After that strongly worded solicitor's letter, one might have expected some update by now, though!
I'm hoping that AP is getting some long term funding sorted - can't go on with these month to month extensions. I reckon if he has built on the June performance of BP for July and August, he might have enough to get a new deal. Treat the diamonds as a bonus as and when they're sold.
I think we'll know that some news is coming when volume picks up and the sp shifts dramatically moves in one direction or the other... risk/reward here is looking good for holders.
If the name of the game is to buy low and sell high then there appears to be an opportunity to buy low just now... certainly seems to be one of those situations where Warren Buffet might be attracted!!
Like others, I've got an average much higher than the current sp - can't see a reason to sell given the news that should be on its way and that could drop any time. Plenty of reasons to hold and add though.
It's a real frustration that we're not hearing from AP about anything - another leak of correspondence between VAST's legal team and the RBZ or whoever would be helpful. As would some status report from BP.
Shareholders have taken a real battering for some time now and, if he has the wherewithal to do it, AP should look to re-finance for the longer term and avoid another placing.
EGTP - spot on.
My guess is that AP has got a plan A and B.
Plan A - pay down debt with the diamonds if resolved this month. If he is still in Zim then I think he is expecting a resolution.
Plan B - re-finance on the strength of BP. He'll already have sounded out a deal and that is, perhaps, why the extension is only to the end of the month and why the diamonds were not mentioned in the last RNS.
Of course, it could be that he'll raise enough to start of the process of getting the Zim operations going again... who knows, this might oil the wheels to get the diamond issue resolved.
Either way, we should be getting significant news this month and, imho, should signal a turnaround for the sp.
With regard to the diamonds, as I said the other day, AP should get some credit for getting this far and I'll just reinforce the fact that the Zim gov't didn't oppose the case. They want this cleared up in a satisfactory way and they want VAST to re-start operations in Zim. It will be very interesting how this plays out because the RBZ don't seem to have a legal leg to stand on.
Quite apart from that, AP needs to give the market more info about BP, Taj and future funding. Rather than take this extension by extension approach, he should have sufficient performance from BP to get a new long term funding arrangement (if the diamonds are further delayed)... surely?
Volume is tiny. The numbers selling are miniscule. There is no mass sell out here and the vast, vast majority are holding for news which could come at any time but then again AP needs to get his finger out and update the market.
The current sp is simply a reflection of some folks being impatient and not having the stamina to wait for news.
The volume is disappointing but I guess out of those billions of shares there are only a very few which are being sold...which, for me, means that the vast majority of folks are holding. Small volumes tend to set the sp drifting down on AIM shares. Volume will pick up when there is a sniff of progress or otherwise.
As time goes on, it is more difficult to call - we're maybe getting to the point where AP could secure alternative funding on the back of BP volume and Taj income and, perhaps, that's why the extension is only til the end of this month.
Perhaps, he's confident that he'll get another extension.
Perhaps. he's confident that the diamonds will be returned or that there will be some compensation offered.
Whilst the diamond issue is taking an age to resolve, I'm optimistic that it will be sorted to VAST's advantage, one way or another.
Does anyone know if/when AP returned from Zim or is he still there?
Zim isn't perfect by any means but I think that it is wrong to dismiss the diamonds or the prospect of restarting operations. I fully accept that the current core value of Vast is in BP and that should deliver a significant uprating in the sp when targets are met. From my limited exposure to Zim though, there is sufficient trust for a number of foreign companies to have significant operations there. And whilst some things move slowly and get stuck, things can become unstuck quickly and with not much notice. Yes, it is unpredictable but AP has made significant progress and is in a position that probably wasn't even contemplated a a year ago. Let's give him a wee bit of credit for that and let's not dismiss the Zim people because they've got a different history and do things differently to us.
Can't see any benefit in privileged, entitled westerners (I include myself) emailing anyone in Zim about the diamonds. The legal route will either secure the diamonds or some compensation if they are missing. It will be a personal embarrassment to the President if this doesn't get resolved so I expect this to be sorted... AP will come away with the diamonds, some cash or, who knows, a very advantageous deal to re-start diamond mining.
I see the formalisation of the extension as a positive and I'm optimistic that we'll see other positive news this month.
I'd say that things are coming together. One way or another, there should be some big announcements heading this way.
As someone has said, if the outlook for the return of the diamonds has changed then we should have been told about it.
I'd like to hear about AP's plans for re-starting Zim operations even if that is some time away.
Well I think this is very good news... if there was going to be a further delay with the diamonds then, either, the extension would not have been completed and AP would have been told where to go or there would have been a further extension to the timescale. It's almost 4 weeks since the extension was first announced and things must have moved on for the lender to agree to the extension and for AP to be satisfied that the timescale was still OK.
I'm very reassured by this news.
Marcuspd - fair point but you have to remember that it was only at the end of May that Prem were saying that there would be some 13,000T produced by the end of November. At that point, they knew that there was an issue and apparently had a solution. Clearly, they didn't have a grasp of the issue(s).
We now have GR introduce the need for a 'thickener' into the mix... let's see if that becomes more or less critical to production in the next month or 2.
Forgive me for my scepticism (once bitten/twice shy, etc) but there is still an air of deja vu around Prem and particularly GR's pronouncements.
I still think that it's only a matter of time before they get to producing 1,000T (and they now have the cash to see them and Stark through) but I, for one, am not reassured by GR's utterances!!!
Another good video from Biztech. Not such a good one from GR again. It's becoming clearer that the Zulu situation has been more messy than has been admitted and that Stark are having some cashflow problems. The Canmax support isn't just a bonus but it does seem that it is a necessity.
Anyway, still boils down to whether the 1000t of SC6 is going to be produced on time... still feels that there's some distance to travel and even further to get to nameplate. I'm pretty convinced that the latter is not going to be achieved this year. Let's see if 1000t can be delivered in November!
I think Canmax will use their muscle to move GR out and/or insist on other changes at the top. They'll only end up taking it over if GR makes a complete mess of it... by that time, it will be cheap as chips.
I hope that we don't get into that situation!
So one could argue that Prem is now safe until at least the New Year BUT the direction of the sp now boils down solely to whether or not the market believes that we can get 1,000t of SC6 by November. It's looking undecided for now.
Another twist in this saga!
Not sure whether to read this as good news or bad news.
The cash is welcome BUT part of it is to cover a potential cash payment back to Canmax. Have they already concluded that they won't deliver in November?
And the price is 0.35p!!!! Almost 25% discount on previous days closing price!!!! Could be construed as a desperate measure!
And one then has to ask why this wasn't done last week or when the deal was being re-negotiated earlier in the month???
What has changed since then?
At this rate, VAST will be well into profit through BP before the diamond issue is resolved!! With the election out of the way, I'd expect AP to up the anti with the RBZ again if he hasn't already done so. It's a pretty murky business and a pragmatic approach is necessary but AP has to be seen to be doing the right thing.
With financing decisions pushed out to the end of Sept, I think AP is thinking that he'll have enough progress at BP and with Taj to secure a longer term deal without needing to depend on the diamonds, as ASI was implying. It's a pity we're not hearing more about BP and Taj.