The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
For me. this is a long term hold now with much more to come -
'We believe this deal will be transformational for Orcadian. Not only does it set out a clear pathway to production for the Pilot field, but also provides a number of opportunities, which we are excited about, in the wider Western Platform area which this partnership will enable us to grasp.'
Andoman99 - yes, if this wasn't happening then I think ORCA management would know before now. I don't get the impression that the ORCA management are in the business of misleading the market or delaying updates (like some other AIM co's) so I'm of the mind that this is going ahead.
There was no confirmation that the extension wasn't granted (they'd be obliged to tell the market asap) either so one has to assume that it was granted and that it is still going ahead.
Doubt if ORCA would have taken their action if the deal wasn't going to go ahead... and I doubt if the nomad would have allowed this RNS too. Looks like someone at the potential operator hasn't quite got their ducks in a row but must have committed to this within the week.
The nomad would have insisted in adding the caveat that it might not go ahead.
Acker,
one has to ask the question why we don't have more institutional investors and I believe that is solely down to the way that the Company is run and the man in charge. If you've watched Steve's latest video, he accurately paints a picture of poor governance and execution... just one example, we've been waiting for an updated RUS for over a year! A competent CEO would be getting that done. A competent CEO would be communicating accurately and would be on top of Stark et al. GR is failing in just about every regard and institutional investors will not invest. Change leadership and attract new money.
Likewise, I don't think that GR has any reputation with banks/lenders and that's why he's had to dip his hands into his own pocket to shore up finances recently. Given the asset that Zulu is supposed to be, do you not think that we should be able to get more financial support from other sources? The problem here is GR!
Profitbags - I couldn't have put it better. The sooner he goes, the better.
He has cost shareholders hundreds of millions of pounds! His judgement and decision making has been disastrous. The progress that has been made has been despite GR and not because of him.
The original deal with Canmax handed them a big chunk of PREM (not just a chunk of Zulu) and may have been the only one on the table that allowed GR to stay in post.
This might sound distasteful but the man could drop at anytime given his age and general disposition... and where would we be then?
GR/Prem won't have enough cash to see Zulu through to production so I can only see the sp heading in one direction, I'm afraid. Like others, I agree that it's not a sure bet that everything will go smoothly from here. One would expect the big holders to be piling on the pressure - there needs to be some change and GR has to go. I believe that he's made decisions in the past that have suited him and only him... and he'll continue to do that. He's been happy to have been influenced by the pandora group, SK at al and that has to stop.
The change needs to happen at the top and Canmax are in a position now to make it happen.
Given GR's shady dealings a few months ago, I wonder if he's buying or selling!!
I couldn't tune in for the Q&A's but I've read some of the comments.
I guess today's info wasn't ever going to shift the dial but what concerns me is that the current agreement factored in the situation that we're currently in, i.e. a delay, but GR says that Canmax are off putting together a new agreement/deal. They will have known the situation over a week ago but we won't hear anything until the end of the month.... doesn't sound like the deal is going to have a minor tweak. Could be considerable jeopardy for holders and/or could signal GR's departure. I think that I agree that Canmax probably don't want to run a mine so won't want to swallow Zulu/Prem whole but they will want Spod as cheaply as they can get it.
This could be expensive for holders - I think they'll take another chunk.
As for GR, I don't know what's worse... knowingly lying or admitting that you're incompetent (which is in effect what he did)!
Long time Snowking! Feeling a bit bruised?
Long term, still massive potential but GR's oversight of this has been sadly lacking... doesn't matter what anyone else has done, buck stops with him! He's cost us all a fortune. Still having your cosy chats with him?
Yes, Clueless and Acker. Canmax must be on board.
I'm wondering if the financial hit won't be as bad as some might think - stopping operations must generate some savings. OK, there won't be income from a couple of small shipments but the upgrade work was already known and expected and funded, if I'm not wrong.
PD101 - can't see GR accepting that or putting it to shareholders. The long term potential is still a multiple of 1.2p.
The more I've thought about the change in plan, the more I think that Canmax are on board and that it was possibly proposed by them or Stark. Possibly, this may have been the plan all along... surely someone would have spotted that they would have to stop operations to do the civils for the new kit a while ago?
Can't see us getting any insight to the financials and who is paying to get the job done. Can't see any imminent need to get more funds either though.
I do expect GR to give an optimistic view on the timescale for the works to be completed and for the 1st shipment. I might be thinking that we've bottomed out and that the title of this thread seems to be in the right ballpark.
Possibly Acker. As you know, I'm not a fan of GR - I'd give him credit for getting the deal re-started with Canmax but apart from that???
I'd like to see better oversight of Stark as well. And I wonder if there have been any personnel changes in any of the teams?
When it gets to the point that a few weeks delay turns into more than 6 months then something has to change! As the major shareholder, one might expect them to act.
I think GR will have had to get agreement from Canmax to the change in approach outlined in the RNS so I think they are probably on board already. My guess is that this change in approach has been on the table for a few weeks. The current agreement anticipated that there might be issues and further delays - not sure if that helps GR. What interests me is whether they will extract a cost when GR is looking for finance - GR's coat was already on a shoogly peg. This time round Canmax have a much bigger holding and could easily take GR out. It really depends on whether GR has kept communicating with them. If he hasn't, he is toast... but, even if he has, Canmax must be thinking that this guy does not have the wherewithal to get the job done!
Acker - my main thought then was to try and get GR out of the driving seat. JV seemed the best way. Up to May, the current approach seemed to be working but as soon as that 1st delay happened (and then GR's trading became public knowledge), I concluded that he was only giving us a snippet of the issues they were facing. GM at Stark has not helped with his 'shooting the lights out' attitude.
Having said that, I think that the decision to focus on the upgrade is the right one. The sp drop has probably been over done - my guess is that there's been plenty of folk who had assumed that shipping wouldn't happen.
Doubt if the Chinese are happy at all so I'm watching with interest!