Member Info for SteveV

NCYT had to release this RNS as there is no sign of a resolutuion as yet.
We new all this, but they want to be able to get the half year accounts published.

DHSC will get resolved but they will want to drag it out as long as possible.
As I said yesterday wait till testing demand goes through the roof again this winter.

I do find it disconcerting when ministerial reshuffles place ministers into departments they have NO experience in.!

Wouldn't it be great if those put in charge were actually EXPERTS in that particular field !?

Is this why many incumbents seem to make a total mess and have to be replaced regularly?

Hey Johnny, yes sure you could be right. BUT it could be a stock for stock takeover.

Yes, quite. Keep the sp down until the buy back.
Then release some great news. Sp rockets, then use the shares to acquire a company of choice at a huge discount.(compared to the buy back price)

Also, the new CEO won't want a big rise in sp until his bonus's have been agreed.(post 18th Oct)

I think ALL the action will start sometime November onwards.!? Get ready !!

The DHSC panic ordered due to criticism of lack of provision of testing in the early days of the pandemic.
Some hospitals were happy to use the original tests. Some hospitals found them too complicated and didn't have the lab facilities.
They were left with a surplus. NOT really NCYT's problem, BUT it has become our problem.
Everyone loves Promate and it is widely used.
The DHSC want a refund for the paid for original tests (2020) and are withholding payments for the 2021 delivered Promate as a consequence.
NCYT have good contractual grounds. BUT the DHSC want to drag this out as long as possible.
When The DHSC want enough of our Promate to make up for the unused original tests a deal will be done.

Winter is coming. A deal will be done !!

The Gov /NHS seem to be well behind the curve re: advice around Covid symptoms.

They are still advising the main symptoms to be wary of are:
High temp.
Continuous cough
Loss or change in sense of taste/small.

Things have moved on with the emergence of new variants.
According to the very well informed ZOE study app., the top five symptoms are now.
Runny nose
Headache
Sneezing
Sore throat
Loss of smell
Professor Tim Spector talks about it here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGQNkv3bS18

So the new symptoms are very similar to cold/flu.
Begs the question how will Hospitals, GP's, distinguish between the two. As Autumn turns to winter and cases go through the roof this will become a major issue.
NCYT's WINTERPLEX may well be VERY much in demand.

Well with £2.4Billion + in the bank it will probably be Qxford Nanopore acquiring NCYT !!!

Yes, quite agree. They should never have cancelled phase 2. There should be a Q machine(s) running virtually non stop in every hospital. Every new patient tested regularly. Any doctors,nurses, ancilliary staff with the slightest symptom, tested regularly.

We don't want people going into hospitals and catching/spreading Covid.

NIce. BUT, where is the PSC currently residing???

Hey Levin, well £125m in 5 years time I would estimate a sp of £8.80 at that point.

That 5% CAGR over 5 years as stated is the what the diagnostics industry as a whole is set to expand at.
NCYT is a young ambitious growing company with expansion as it's main strategy and could well out perform that.

100 mil revenue this year
120 next year
144 the year after etc

I would say that should be sp around £7 now, rising to £10...At least!

Well they aren't definitely TOTALLY worthless, BUT they may be NEARLY worthless.
Time will tell. Does someone value the asset that will be enough to return a reasonable amount to shareholders.?

Hope so. !!

NCYT have laid out their strategy for growth in the investor presentation.

The CFO said that regarding acquisition, they would pursue any targets that would align with said strategy.
SO, I think, nothing is cast in stone, BUT they will acquire businesses as they need them IF it aligns with what they are trying to achieve.

So it could be acquiring a small diagnostics business that do tests we don't do. It could be manufacturing businesses in countries we want to expand within. It could be sales outlets that we currently want to be a part of.

It is a flexible plan so that whatever needs to be acquired, will be. (and we got the cash to do that !)

BUT.....we may not need to acquire ANYTHING !!!

Our CFO did say that they are guessing COVID testing may start to drop off by half every year going forward. BUT they don't expect NCYT revenue to follow that trend as they continue to GAIN market share worldwide.

I think it is quite possible we will see COVID revenue of at least £100m for a good few years to come.

Yes, gonna be over 40k tomorrow, unfortunately.

I think it sounds like FRR may/will come back, AND possibly? relist.
The question really is, WILL existing shareholders be largely wiped out by an inevitable refinancing!?

Not sure we may get taken out any time soon.
Would the incoming CEO not have done his due diligence. Can't see that he would want to get on board if he knew big fish have been sniffing around.
Get the DHSC put to bed. Get a major sales expansion into the USA going strong. Get some inroads into the post Covid testing market. THEN, after a SP re-rate we could,maybe, entertain the possibility.

Just keep adding, if you can in the meantime!!?

Free, mass LFT home testing for asymptomatic, must surely be the biggest waste of time and OUR money.

A massive PR job by the Gov who were heavily criticised in the early days for lack of testing. Even the manufacturers of the Innova tests say it is NOT suitable for asymptomatic cases.

I'm holding.
Think we may get a resolution of the DHSC dispute, and possibly a sizable USA contract in the next few months.

NCYT is certainly in prime position. Got the products people want to buy. Got the sales outlets, got the worldwide distributors. Got the sales. Got the cash in the bank. No debt. Been ramping up staff levels all year.
Also looks like they are going for the USA market with a concerted effort. Things could get massive over there.