Member Info for stevemocal

Gixxer - I feel your frustration and pain! I also averaged down the last time we were at this level but decided to sell a few last week to put elsewhere.

Andrew - I know some LTH's will be delighted to take 10p and a large payday. Regardless, if the Bushranger project only delivers a 10p per share return, the risk to reward ratio was terrible. Let's hop CB proves the doubters wrong and that the 'time of the junior miner' really is here.

Gixxer - Given the cost of the licence, exploration costs, 2 years of money tied up and the high risk... 10p feels like a poor return on investment. That said, I can understand why people just want to get out now. I really hope CB can turn this around and soon.

Andrew - Completely get where you are coming from. Even us medium-term holders (shortly after Bushranger) are familiar with CB's gift for can kicking. I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year.

As a general comment, it is actually quite depressing seeing shareholder valuations for the Bushranger project plummet as this drags out and the nerves jangle. Even if Xtract can only prove up 1.5mt of contain Cu Eq at this stage, it is obvious that it will continue to grow and may end up many multiples of that. I therefore don't understand why shareholders would be happy to take 10p. What is the point in investing in juniors that are looking for big discoveries, where the odds are perhaps 100-1, if a win only pays out at 10-1?

CB has talked often about now being the time of the junior miner because the majors haven't invested enough in discovery... he better bloody prove it by getting a lot more than 10p per share for Bushranger! The stress of the wait has cost me nearly that much in vodka!!

Hi Andrew - CB may want to wait until Cu prices are higher but he can't stall for another year, claiming to be processing data. He'll have to release Footrot assays, RC and Ascot resource estimates and the pit/economic modelling fairly soon because he's said they are 'imminent' and it is information that has to be shared with the market.

Besides, everyone knows that copper prices are only going to go one way over the next few years and this should be factored into the valuation. I must confess that I'm not sure if that is in fact the case when valuing using the Valmin code, but that valuation methodology only applies to 80% of Bushranger and 0% of the other licences. I think CB has a decent hand to play and I really hope the delay is because he's in the midst of playing it! We need to get this over the line and preferably by Christmas!

Some wider context....

"Japan warns that global competition for liquefied natural gas is set to intensify over the next three years due to an underinvestment in supply. Long-term LNG contracts that start before 2026 are sold out, according to a survey of Japanese companies conducted by the trade ministry and released Monday. These types of contracts are essential for buyers, as they offer stable pricing and reliable supply for many years.

https://twitter.com/shoko_oda/status/1594562668437786627?s=46&t=t2iJw103h7gTa2AoUxitgg

And...

"LONDON (Reuters) -Shell said on Monday it will evaluate plans to spend up to 25 billion pounds in Britain over the next decade following the government's decision to increase a windfall tax on oil and gas producers."

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/shell-to-evaluate-25-billion-pound-british-investments-after-windfall-tax/ar-AA14nC8E

He didn’t endorse his cycling!

I also recall that they meet up with the AA guys… I thought it was running though! Either way, it is obvious AA have all the inside info and, by return, the Xtract guys will have a good feel for whether they’d want it back and when they’ve done enough drilling to get a fair price.

Hopefully not long to wait now!

I may be connecting dots that don't mean much but...

David Wood, who is the Discovery Manager for AA in Australia, has provided several skills endorsements on LinkedIn for Quinton Hills, who is our Exploration Manager/Geologist at Bushranger. Wonder how they know each other?

If it goes to an expert for a valuation, then there will also be a process for identifying experts, both parties agreeing who to commission, and then for the expert to start their work. I suspect the lead time would be weeks, not days.

Hopefully the lack of news is because the process with AA has begun. And, hopefully, everyone wants this done before Christmas!

"He also said the number crunching takes around 10 days."

Which takes us to the next question... how long would a negotiation with AA take?

I would not be happy with a raise before the sale of Bushranger.

Xtract need to get a few existing (some very late) projects properly over the line before getting distracted with something new. They need to build a reputation for delivering if they want the market to take them seriously and become more than another junior dreamer.

For sure, start researching new investments but keep the begging bowl locked away until Bushranger is sold and Xtract has proved its' mettle (excuse the pun).

We have the 20% as leverage and the other 3 licences as leverage. If AA want it, they'll offer a fair price IMHO.

Andrew - I just think it is down to the difference in the SP. It was over 6p when the last options were announced.

Andrew - It seems very reasonable to assume there is substantially more copper/gold to be added to the resource by continuing the exploration of Ascot and other prospects within the EL5574 licence (and beyond). Therefore, if the new JORCs for Racecourse and Ascot fall a little short of the 2mt target after phases 1 & 2, then I certainly won't be feeling misled or disappointed. In fact, I would be more than a little disappointed if XTR were to waste more time and money on a phase 3 if we are essentially close enough to the (arbitrary) target for a 'gimme'... especially when a decision to mine can be used to trigger the buy back clause anyway.

However, if the JORCs for both Racecourse and Ascot come in around the 1.5mt mark after phases 1 & 2, then that is nowhere near a 'gimme' in my book and I will definitely be left feeling misled. And I won't be alone.

Come on CB... put an end to all this niggling and suspicious speculation. Blow the bloody doors off the thing and give us all the best Christmas ever!

Hi Andrew - I would consider 1.4mt to be 'well short'. Especially if Ascot is included.

As I said, being over-optimistic with timelines is an easy mistake to make. Over-estimating the scale of the resource is something else and I would question if it was just a mistake.

LittleWing - The MM's don't care whether they are taking a commission for a trade at 3p or 20p and don't really create the 'spikes'. The spikes happen when news hits and the AIM herd comes steaming in looking for quick profits. When the buys from the herd start to dwindle, and the profit takers take over, the SP inevitably retraces. Hey-ho.

My outcome hope is simple though... to get a fair price for what has been found. I am as tired and frustrated by the wait as everyone else but it would drive me nuts if we accepted a low ball offer just to relieve the anxiety.

Hi Andrew - Having spent the last 25 years managing projects, programmes and portfolios, I know all too well that most people have tendency to over optimism when it comes to timelines, costs and benefits. CB definitely falls into that camp.

Timelines are the easiest part of a project to get wrong because a slippage in one workstream can seriously knock the rest of the delivery plan off course. For example, receiving assay results back a few weeks later than expected could result in having to rebook the hiring of drill rigs or the commissioning of work to model the open pit and economics... and that could lead to a knock on delay of months. So I forgive the missed timelines (through gritted teeth!).

Would I forgive CB overstating the potential scale/value of the resource? Probably not so easily because there is far less guess work involved. He will have been watching the team in Oz building their model as the results came in and would be privy to the 'running total' that they no doubt have. If we are well short of the 2mt expectation (which CB set), then I would regard that as an act of deliberately misleading shareholders.

But there is a difference between over-optimism and being deliberately misleading. I know CB is guilty of the first but I doubt he is guilty of the second. Besides, I have been doing my own crude modelling as result come in, which I use as a 'check' against what CB says. I think we have 1.5+mt at RC and Ascot will ultimately tack Bushranger crashing through the 2mt target. Can we prove at this stage... probably not. Do we need to prove it to get a decent price... probably not. I still believe, based on the known fundamentals, that 10p would be an absolute steal.

LittleWing - Who are those in the know that are hold the SP at 3p? And for what purpose?

It would seem that you, and many others, are now feeling the strain of the long wait for the news, and making lowball valuations based on deflated sentiment and a desire to soften the blow in case of a disappoint outcome. Luckily, the valuation process won't be based on shareholder confidence/sentiment! I personally remain in the 'optimistic camp' and do so by trying to stay focused on the asset, where it is, and worldwide demand for it. 10p?!?!? They can more than just stick it!

kwadoku has gone by many names before but always betrays who he is with his cut-and-paste postings.

He holds a grudge against Colin (just in case that wasn't obvious!) and just wants to bring him and his companies down. He does not care about investors, just getting revenge for whatever he blames Colin for.

kwadoku - You need to get some help... this is not healthy.

The later holes were also testing the outer limits of the Racecourse porphyry and the grades are obviously going to reduce... it is the same for any porphyry anywhere in the world!

There may also be some doubt as to whether Racecourse can make the magic 2mt of contain Cu Eq by itself, but XTR have said they are also going to also provide a resource estimate for Ascot and this should ease concerns. Despite the limited drilling at Ascot - which is open in all directions - it is likely that when its' resource estimate is combined with Racecourse, it will total round the 2mt mark - the 2mt does not have to come from Racecourse but from targets within the EL7754 licence.

I would add that anyone who has been following the exploration of the EL7754 licence closely will know this multi porphyry system is likely to ultimately contain many times more than the target 2mt of contained Cu Eq... and make no mistake, AA and other majors will have been paying close attention.

Captainbob - That would be a significant change in strategy.

I bought in here because the strategy (re Bushranger) was to prove it up and sell it on. With the world so unpredictable at the moment, it is a strategy I think XTR needs to stick to. I would be most unhappy if XTR changed strategy at this late stage in the game and started down a very long path in search of more jam tomorrow.