Member Info for stevemocal

johnswan1 - From the RNS dated 12th August 2021...

"The Company was pleased to be informed by the New South Wales licensing authority that it is proposed to renew the exploration licence covering the Racecourse deposit and adjoining prospects for a further three years until June 2024"

The focus at the time was naturally on the 'Racecourse' licence (EL7754) but they renewed them all at the same time.

Jamsie - XTR could use all sorts of delaying tactics to avoid dilution through cash calls whilst looking to offload their 20% stake... they'd have to endure junior partner pace for at least a while. Anyway, I don't see AA trying to play hardball, especially if they want the other licences. Either way, we seem to be splitting hairs as we are pretty much in agreement.

It is weird but the board always seems to circle back to discussing the buy-back clause whenever there is a lull in news! And I always seem to get sucked in!?! Can't be doing it again... wake me up when the next RNS lands! ;)

johnswan1 - It can be confusing getting to grips with what the buy-back clause relates to because the terms 'Bushranger' and Racecourse' are used interchangeably and neither provide an accurate description of an actual asset.

'Bushranger' is simple the name of the XTR exploration project located in the Lachlan Fold Belt. It consists of four exploratory licences, which includes EL7754 where the anomalies known as Raccourse, Ascot and Footrot are located (as you correctly say). The buy-back clause only applies to licence EL7754 and not the remaining three neighbouring licences. People can see the location of each licence of the four licences in the following presentation from the XTR website...

https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushranger-Summary-Presentation_April-2020.pdf

Jamesiecakes - You may be right but it is difficult to say because none of us have seen the actual buy-back clause and are relying on published snippets that are paraphrased. Either way, that is nothing to indicate that XTR would be prohibited from selling on their 20%, which could see AA forced into bed with a rival. I personally don't think they'd want that and would therefore pay a fair price to acquire the lot. Time will tell.

Richardo - If AA don't acquire 100% of the EL5574 asset, then they are not fully in control in terms of development i.e. they can only go at the pace of their junior partner.

And then there is the risk that if they don't buy the lot, then XTR could potentially sell their 20% to a rival, which would not be a good place to be in.

But it isn't just the 20% for EL7754 that AA might have to pay a premium for. There are three neighbouring licences held by XTR, which are not subject to the buy back clause. We already know Bushranger is a multi-porphyry system but how far does it extend and can AA risk not picking up the neighbouring licences to find out? Imagine passing them up and they end up in a rivals hands who end up making billions that could have been theirs and processed from their single Bushranger plant... that would be a costly and embarrassing mistake.

I guess Aristotle summed it up nicely... "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts".

4. Assays from 2 x Footrot drill holes

Screenlearner - Most of us have been guilty of underestimating how long things would take but phase 2 is now finished, most of the assays are back, and we've been told there is no plan for a phase 3. So we just have to wait until they are ready to issue the new resource estimates and the modelling. I would hope we are talking weeks rather than months... but they could be famous last words!

I agree with Cygnus.

The last modelling of the conceptual open pit used the existing JORC and didn’t include anything found by the XTR drilling. All the XTR finds should now be built into the modelling and a new JORC estimate issued. Hopefully not too long to wait now.

I’d really like some gold rich assays from Footrot RNS’ed first to give the SP a kick!

ZM - Amen to that.

howezap/Steve - Thanks for that, I hadn't noticed that re Footrot assays. The results must be imminent then!! Would be nice to confirm Footrot has gold mineralisation before beginning any negotiations with AA and to give the SP a kick before the big news.

There are plenty of rules and laws to prevent insider trading. Obviously, it still goes on and some will get away with it and others won't.... but the risks are high and enough to put most people off.

I do not believe XTR would be under any obligation to share with the market the results of their modelling unless that categorically proved Bushranger was not economical to mine. That aside, they can sit on the info, play with the data to model different option and even discuss with other parties.

What I personally think they are obliged to notify the market of, is if they have a JORC complaint resource estimate of 2mt at Bushranger. This is only because of the unique nature of the buy-back clause and the fact that it would trigger negotiations with AA and news of that would undoubtedly have a significant impact on the SP.

I think we'' get a news bomb in the next few weeks i.e. resource estimates, modelling and new re AA and the buy-back clause/negotiations.

I am a little confused about Footrot though. The RNS wasn't clear to me whether the cores had been sent to be assayed. The RNS dangled the possibility of gold in front of us but didn't say whether the cores were going off to the lab to be tested. It would be a real boost if assays did come back before the news bomb to confirm Footrot is another large gold bearing asset.

Gixxer - I share your frustration but this feel like we have entered the end game now. For me, this is highlighted by the fact that there is no phase 3 - if we were 'short' and couldn't get a decent price for Bushranger, then I'm convinced CB would have ordered more drilling and done a raise if necessary.

johnswan1 - We can lower the cut-off because copper prices, and more efficient mining techniques, mean dirt that would previously have been overburden waste, is now pay dirt. To say it makes no difference to the value is simply not true.

And when you reduce the cut-off the estimate for contained copper isn't based on a random opinion or belief... it is maths. Reducing the cut-off to 0.15%, based on the existing JORC, gives us just shy of 0.5mt of Cu Eq. We more than double the resource without include anything discovered by the drill holes of phases 1 & 2!

AA were interest enough in Bushranger (despite deciding to prioritise other targets) to put in a buy-back clause and at the time the grades where hardly any higher and the price of copper a fraction of what it now is and will be for decades to come. Even if they are not interested, another major will be and it is nailed on the feelers have been out a long time now testing potential market appetite.

Forget the claims coming out of CB's mouth and instead collate and plot the results from the drill holes and assays yourself. It is possible to get a decent idea of how much has been added without relying on 'belief' of 'feelings'.

Johnswan1 - Just lowering the cut off at Racecourse and using the existing JORC, takes us to approx 0.5mt. We’ve had drill results confirming large extensions in all directions since and I personally don’t get why you think we’ll be lucky to get 1mt… it literally doesn’t add up.

And why does it matter if there are separate mines at Ascot and Racecourse? They can still use the same processing plant and they’d be literally right next door to each other. Both discoveries are within the same licence that the buy back clause relates to (so is Footrot) and it all counts towards the 2mt trigger point.

I’m with Andrew… if we didn’t have enough to make a sale at a decent price, we’d be doing a phase 3 to get it. Also worth noting that the guys on the ground in Oz know and socialise with the AA guys and will definitely be having informal discussions. I think they will have a good idea what AA think too.

There is every reason to be confident despite the frustration of the many missed deadlines.

Actually, yes, some of us do still think 20+p is likely.

£150 of shares sold in 5 hours of trading today... tells me the investors are still here.

No new PI's will take a look at XTR until there is some significant news released that prompts them to take a look. As for II's, they may be watching but won't even bother trying to enter at this price and with such low volume... can you imagine what any significant sort of purchase would do to the SP? They may as well wait for news (less risk) and then look to build a position from the profit takers on the way up.

I must confess to being one of the investors that was somewhat upset at the delayed timelines (I had allowed for a significant amount of slippage but clearly not enough!) because I had overcommitted in XTR using money ring-fenced for something else. Instead of selling though, I have done some 'financial restructuring' of my own and now sit in the 'happy to wait' camp. The news will come soon enough and the painfully long wait will all be forgotten.

Keep the faith and GLA

If they have enough data for a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect (which is completely open and only going to keep getting bigger), then we may go over the 2mt of contained Cu Eq target when added to the new Racecourse JORC.

Altogether, a very attractive prospect for any major. Especially so with Footrot now smelling like gold and the additional lure of three neighbouring licences, all exploration virgins, just begging to be drilled by a big boy. Come on... take us.

Those high grade intersections seem to indicate that they are homing in on the source. Another huge porphyry (1km strike and open) with even higher Cu grades than Racecourse and gold to boot (that could even be a separate system?). The Bushranger project is sitting on a beast of a discovery.

Can't wait for the resource estimates, results of the modelling and the 'for sale' sign to officially go up... there is light appearing at the end of the tunnel.

TDoubleu - The 4 trades adding up to £80k aren't all sells but 2 sells and 2 buys... just me and the missus doing a bed and ISA each.

No change.

Going to list the wife and kids on eBay… got to find the funds to buy more shares at this price. Got a dog too if anyone is interested?

Andrew - I think it is eminently wise to prepare ourselves for potential delays and to patiently await the news as per the timescales you suggest.

Unfortunately, I appear to be as impervious to wisdom and patience as a duck's arse is to water. Give me the news now!!! ;)

Andrew - I know that CB said we didn't have to accept the valuation but I don't believe there isn't a point at which any 'appeal process' comes to an end and Xtract are compelled to sell if AA want it back. There is no point in having a buy-back clause otherwise.