Member Info for stevemocal

"They aren't actually deadlines in any real sense - nothing is hanging on a specific date." Steve, perhaps not for the company or you but that is not necessarily true for all investors. Some of us have other commitments, investments and opportunities and make where, when and how much investment decisions based on anticipated timelines. It more than frustrating that deadlines are being missed and promised news not delivered.

Steve - What you suggest sounds suspiciously like a strategy. Don't be ridiculous! ;)

The RNS dated 31/05/22 was a complete 'nothing burger', didn't come close to satisfying expectations (set by CB) and should never have been allowed to be released as an RNS as it was all old news.

We all know that the timelines for JORC's, pit modelling, financial modelling, valuations, presentations to AA, sales negotiations etc are subject to the findings from the ongoing 2nd phase drilling programme. So wouldn't it be better to focus on phase 2 drilling? How about telling us where the new drill pads are and share the drill plan? How about telling us why those locations were selected and what they will be testing for? How about sharing the IP survey results as promised?

I still have a lot of confidence that Bushranger will come good (the vast, vast majority of my investment portfolio is in XTR) but it doesn't stop the feeling of frustration and annoyance that the SP is where it is because of the comm's.

It is hard to image good news being delivered in a less inspiring way. Surely the BOD should be able to pull something together better than this?

Post out. Still no RNS.

I’m predicting a 7am post.

Thanks for sharing Andrew. I must confess that I prefer the Sunday Roast interviews as they make more time and actually push for some of the answers we are all looking for!

NicetoMichu - I think that if Racecourse comes in sub 2mt then 10p wouldn't be miles off a fair value. If it is 2+mt then I think 20p would be dirt cheap. And I'd certainly expect a premium paid for everything over 2mt because there would be minimal additional capex.

I personally think they are probably short of the 2mt at Racecourse as things stand. If further drilling was undertaken to close out to the north and the south, then I think that would get them over the line but it is clear from the latest drill locations, and CB's comment yesterday (whoever ends up with the project may want to drill between Racecourse and Ascot), that they see greater value being added by exploring Ascot, the surrounding gold targets and Footrot. Racecourse could well end up the support act at the Bushranger show and I'm expecting Ascot and co. to add substantially to the pot even if the value is heavily discounted because there is no JORC complaint estimate (i.e. a "loosely inferred resource estimate").

Andrew - I much prefer your "realistic buy-out valuation"!

Anyway, always good to share different thoughts and analysis... a pleasant change from reading the drivel of late posted by the pitiful trolls!

Hi Andrew - I get where you are coming from but still think your worse case scenario is far too bleak.

If we are going to have a worse case scenario, then why not also consider the best case scenario, and perhaps set a target somewhere in between? But I note that people are very reluctant to do that for fear of not being taken serious or being accused of ramping... myself included!

Andrew - No major will have any interest in taking over our African assets. So there is no need to discount your estimate 6p for the African assets because they won't be sold.

We just need to look at Bushranger and 10p (even if we only had Racecourse at say 1.8mt of contain Cu Eq) would be dirt cheap, and a further 25% discount would be criminal. Whilst I get that people don't want to set expectations too high, it is surely as bad to massively underestimate as it is to over-estimate.

Sounds like they are trying to create some excitement for Ascot, which is already shaping up to be as big as Racecourse but with some significant gold intersections and a discovery hole that "includes an intercept that is amongst the highest grade and thickest intersections on the overall Bushranger Project to date". And they have yet to hit the high grade crown.

Seems to me that this update, plus the fact that all the recent drilling has all been into Ascot, indicates that they think Ascot could turn out to be the main event for the Bushranger project. Although, I do find it strange to shift the entire focus away from Racecourse when they must be close to being able to close it out and bank what we have so far with a new JORC and updated model. A summary like this one for Ascot will definitely not suffice for Racecourse, and an interim JORC and model update would also be a disappointment... unless they already have the 2mt?

Will we get a CB interview this time? If not, then it is only going to increase speculation that there is something going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to.

I think Racecourse is currently light of the 2mt but it still isn't closed out to the north and south, and I think it will get there. And it could well be small potatoes compared to what is contained within Ascot and the new gold systems.

I thought he said 'any minninently', which is apparently somewhere between a minute and a bloody long time.

Sorry for the cut and paste duplication... is what happens when you are trying to do stuff whilst working!

Howezap - Where a porphyry deposit starts and ends is a matter of opinion. Where a Exploratory Licence starts and ends is not. There is no way lawyers drafted a buy-back option based on a deposit who's size and position is questionable... the option definitely applies to the EL5574 licence.

The reason Footrot cannot contribute towards the 2mt target (at least in the short to medium term) is simply because there is no drill or assay information on which to make a JORC compliant resource estimate. The same is true for Ascot but that information is at least being gathered. I think this is why CB has referred to using a 'loosely inferred' estimate to quantify the value of Ascot in any negotiation i.e. an estimate that will value but even if it is not JORC compliant. If Racecourse doesn't make the 2mt target on it's own, then the estimate for Ascot will also need to be JORC complaint to trigger the buy-back clause. The alternative, as we all know, is a decision to mine.Howezap - Where a porphyry deposit starts and ends is a matter of opinion. Where a Exploratory Licence starts and ends is not. There is no way lawyers drafted a buy-back option based on the Racecourse deposit... the option definitely applies to the EL5574 licence.

The reason Footrot cannot contribute towards the 2mt target (at least in the short to medium term) is simply because there is no drill or assay information on which to make a JORC compliant resource estimate. Ascot isfurther ahead than Footrot in these terms but way behind Racecourse. I think this is why CB has referred to using a 'loosely inferred' estimate to quantify the value of Ascot in any negotiation i.e. an estimate that will add to purchase price even if it is not JORC compliant. However, if Racecourse doesn't make the 2mt target on it's own, then the estimate for Ascot will also need to be JORC complaint if it is to count towards the 2mt target for triggering the buy-back clause. The alternative, as we all know, is to take the decision to mine.

That's my take on it anyway. But there cannot be certainty without seeing the contract.

Howezap - Like I said, the JORC can't include Footrot because there hasn't been a single drill hole sunk. But it is in the same licence that is subject to the AA buy-back clause.

Howezap - I think XTR make it confusing for people by interchanging language.

AA have a buy-back option for EL5574, although it is often referred to as both the 'Racecourse Deposit' and the 'Bushranger Project'. EL5574 is in fact just part of the overall Bushranger Project (which consists of four licences) but contains everything found so far i.e. Racecourse, Ascot and Footrot. So anything found within the EL5574 licence can count towards the 2mt target that would trigger the AA buy-back option. That is my understanding and it is based on the following Xtract presentation:

https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushranger-Summary-Presentation_April-2020.pdf

Of course, none of us have seen the actual contract and therefore cannot say for absolute certainty. We can only go on what we are given... and what we are given is not always consistent when it comes to the use of language!

John - That is a nice buy at that price.

It is the change in pace in terms of news being delivered that naturally makes people twitchy.

I was looking back to the start of phase 1. For the first drill hole we had an RNS telling us drilling had commenced. We had an RNS saying it had stopped for Christmas. We had one confirming drilling had restarted. We then had four reporting progress, before a final one to confirm it was completed. A total of eight for one hole... not including the eventual assay results! I think it was right to slow the pace but we've gone from 100mph to 1mph and as such it feels painfully slow.

Fact is though, that we were 9.2p after hole 1 and we are now almost half that after over 50 more drill holes that have added massive amounts of copper (and now gold) to the pot. It is clear that the vast majority of investors who make up 'the market' have not joined up the dots and have no idea as to the value that Bushranger will shortly add... they need the evidence handed to them on a plate and by then they've missed out on the multi bagging opportunity.

Aeris - The XTR team obviously think continued drilling will add more value, or what would the purpose of continuing to do it? It ain't cheap.