Member Info for stevemocal

I can't believe the buy-back clause wouldn't compel Xtract to sell based on the independent valuation if AA wanted it back. But, as I said previously, the buy-back clause only applies to 80% of one licence. Xtract can refuse to sell the rest and that would make it a lot less likely that AA would want it. So AA need to offer a fair price for the lot or it is likely the lot will end up for sale on the open market.

All IMHO.

Rzez - If it comes to an independent assessment, then the valuation will use the Valmin code and whoever is furthest away from that valuation (AA or XTR) will pay for the services of the independent expert.

But remember, the buy back clause is for 80% of one licence. If AA want the other 20% too, and the other licences, then there are no rules. That means XTR can command a premium for the lot. We won’t be giving Bushranger away cheaply.

Hi Cygnus - For me, the potential saving grace will an early sale is that the AA buy-back only applies to EL5574. Although that licence is home to Racecourse, Ascot, Footrot and other yet-to-be-named anomalies, we also hold three yet-to-be-drilled neighbouring licences. If, as the evidence points to, we are sitting on a multi-porphyry system similar to Cadia (just up geological the road in the same fold), then AA (or any other buyer) is obviously going to want to acquire those licences too. And the negotiation for those licences will not be subject to any buy-back terms or any code used for valuation purposes.

Racecourse may only be worth 15p currently based on a Valmin valuation... but what price Bushranger?

It is also worth remembering that they are still making large discoveries at Cadia after 30+ years. It is therefore likely that half of us currently invested in XTR will be pushing up the copper before they finish proving up what is at Bushranger. So we obviously need to draw a line at some point and just make the sale. That point, IMO, should be when there is enough evidence to convince a AA (or other) that Bushranger is indeed another Cadiaesque discovery. And CB and the team don't need to guess when that might be because they know people in AA and I would hope are having informal conversations with them to establish just that. I am therefore hopeful the decision to put up the 'for sale' sign is an informed decision - CB certainly came across as very calm and confident in the last interview. Maybe wishful thinking on my part... time will tell.

I am also not sure the current price of copper will have to negative an impact on the valuation. This is a long term play for any buyer and all the majors know where the price of copper is going in the long term.

Thanks Steve (and everyone else) for sharing your notes.

Was any clarity given on whether declaring a 2mt JORC would automatically trigger the buy-back offer or whether Xtract can effectively put it on hold until they have finished their exploration work and have their 'final' resource tally?

Andy, your notes will be appreciated. We respect your need for a lie-in!

CB made them an offer they couldn't refuse and anyone who said 'no' woke up with their dog's head in bed with them. Typical AIM.

Did everyone attending the AGM have to sign a NDA? Very quiet.

Hopefully they've dragged CB down the pub and are plying him with copious amounts of malt whiskey to get him gabbing. Loose talk, to reveal JORC!

It is shame the AGM isn't being live streamed. Thanks in advance to fellow investors who are not only attending to ask questions but willing to take the time to share the answers on this board. You are appreciated.

Cygnus - If you look at the drill hole summary that is provided with the latest drill update RNS, you'll see that just about every drill hole in phase 1 & 2 has sections where the grade is 0.33-0.48%. Some sections are substantially higher.

The Transaction Incentive Awards and the share options mean the BoD and Xtract staff should be fully motivated to get maximum value for Bushranger.

Clagnuts - It is because the market is at odds with our assessment of the potential value that we are invested here. No profit to be made otherwise!

TDoubleu - The RNS dated 24th Feb. 2021, confirmed new share options for directors, staff and consultants with an exercise price of 10p.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/award-of-share-options-m86nqgci5sa5gs0.html

Andrew - I think your 1 & 2 can both be true at the same time.

I personally think RC is probably shy of the 2mt threshold that gives AA a guaranteed opportunity to buyback. But not by much and it seems nailed on that Ascot and other prospects on the licence will see us smashing through that target.

We should also remember that the buy-back clause only applied to the EL5574 licence. There is no buy-back terms for the other surrounding licences and if they want them too (hard to imagine them not) then it is a straight negotiation and I'd be expecting CB to command a pretty penny for them. If they don't want to pay a hansom premium for them (to avoid missing other targets and potentially inviting a competitor into their backyard) then we could always keep them as the next exploration project and do it all again!

Andy - Let's hope they had lots of new pads approved last time and can make a start without a long lead time. But who knows... they never updated us about the approvals either.

I don't see how phase 3 can beginning without giving shareholders an update following phase 2 discover e.g. a new JORC for RC and/or updated on the pit/economics modelling. I would hope that having anything between 1-2mt contained Cu Eq at RC, and evidence it is economic to mine, would result in a significant increase in the SP.

I am also hopeful that RC will be closer to 2mt than 1mt, which is a massive amount of inground value. And I still think gold has a major part to play in the evolving Bushranger story. I guess that puts me in the optimistic camp!

Great post Steve. I agree with what you say but it unfortunately doesn’t stop the nerves when you’ve all in and waiting on the turn card that should have been dealt months ago! The slow dealer is bound to get a little stick!

ZM - I believe CB may have said that they don't have to accept the valuation of the independent valuer but I don't believe that can be true and think he must have muddled his words.

AA can obviously decide not to buy at the price the independent valuer determines to be a fair market rate and that will be that in terms of the 'once only' buy back opportunity. But ProspectOre (now Xtract as new lease owners) committed to allowing AA to buy back at a fair market rate and agreed to the methodology that would determine that rate... I don't see how they can reject it.

Of course, none of us have seen the actual contract and there may be something in there that gives them a get out. I just doubt it. What is the point of a buy-back clause that is unenforceable?

Let's hope the Sunday Lunch guys get an interview... they allow more time and actually get to push for some answers.

Doesn't tell us anything new.