Member Info for SteveJones999

Hi Mark, I did not say open a short I said sell. I didn’t read into it enough to suggest short.
Hi Sotolo, the divi is never guaranteed, many companies have had to pull their divis in the past,
but from what you say regarding levels of profitability at threat, wouldn’t the current divi levels be at threat here with CEY?

Hey, no worries Sotolo. My rationale for holding at present is based on the overall annual profitability for 2020- all figures are known and we can work it out- if we use the worse case prediction from the AISC in the last RNS from q4, and the figures "leaked" which are at the upper end of revised forecast. Since Oct big drops (x2), I have only seen positive news, in the WebCast, on new licenses(admittedly still under negotiation), and am impressed with the CEO. The Oct news was so bad, typically these sort of things cause a bigger drop than financials warrant due to confidence reduction. I think that meeting the re-forecast figures, should be received well as ship is steadied and back on track. Sometimes this alone causes a rise as the dip was probably over done. Sentiment has massive sway on a stock, especially in a sole mining operation. CEY has relative huge cash reserves, and with new licenses, somewhere to invest. Don't take this the wrong way, but if I held your views, I would sell now as you seem convinced it will fall further, then buy back just before ex-divi to get your divi, then repeat. CEY have provided all the info for next year, and it was stated in the webcast as conservative on prod and gold price, so upside potential is there. We never know what is, or is not priced in, but the most obvious approach is of course it's priced in. But when a company drops real hard and fast like this one did, it is often overdone and this overdone springs back when confidence returns to the level it should have been in the drop. I live in hope, and each to their own view, on RNS release is when we find out- good luck.

Interesting Sotolo, you omit costs savings and other positive items brought up by the CEO in his December Webcast.

All miners same

Yep Somnamna we never know alas- sometimes shares dip on the same previously known bad news which seems nuts but I've seen it happen. Equally, after previous bad news, just meeting expectations can cause a jump as seen as "issues over, and last drops were overdone"... on balance, for me, it's worth the gamble at this price, and if you believe what has been reported on this forum production is on the upper side of the forecast, so that side is covered. Production was the biggest problem reported at the start of Oct20 causing the first big drop. Of course, costs will be key but are/were a consequence of the prod issues caused by the wall. So if prod is met, this is key to demonstrate no further issues in this area which many believe caused the price to drop so fast and so hard.

As always, known news priced in. Costs may not “soar” over and above what is expected on ASIC. Equally, price will be measured against what was in last RNS and what was said in the webcast and on new license progress. Essentially, zero difference than any other rise/fall following RNS- exceed expectation is a rise, miss is a fall. You could argue it will rise meet expectations as last 2 RNS took
the hits, and meeting is a success as confidence returns. Take your pick!

There has become obsession with COVID. Once vaccines are rolled out, there will be, like other diseases, an acceptable death rate. The way the media (who like the politicians, public workers etc are generally not impacted financially yet), report on this, any deaths are not accepted. If people don’t get back to work soon the amount of for the NHS via tax will be so low many, many, many more deaths will occur from other causes, the death rate of under 60s is arguably higher now because of the COVID focus. On CEY, watching Powell speak as I type, of particular relevance to gold and markets.

Yes Dasut, I tried to look at the link again, but comes up as invalid, so can't re-read (probably my computer!). From memory, yes, the negative junk was already reported, hence the hits in October. So I see it as good news if numbers correct as "the slide" has stopped and they are back to meeting what they say. On top of this was the last webcast from the CEO and top team, I posted a while back my views on this and they were all positive, eg cost savings, futures etc and we are still awaiting outcome of licences negotiation finalisations. So, for me, as I haven't seen any bad news, I remain hopeful. On gold- stimulus will undoubtedly come in the USA

Thanks Siko- on reading, the info contained within, if true is positive. The last October RNS said 445-455oz so 452 is in the upper range as is 70,000 for the quarter, where 60,000-70,000 was cited. No mention of costs etc, but what was in there, if true is more of a reason for a rise than a drop in my view.

Amy rationale on the 4.5% drop today?

There is no link between bitcoin/cryptos and gold - like i said a while back when some idiot from jpm said more bitcoin bought as expense of gold when he/she should have sent at expense of stocks at neither can be proven- since the jpm statement both bitcoin and gold have risen- i pointed this out as unproven rubbish at the time and still proves to be the case. Bitcoin is a crypto, the leader, and many crypto “rob peter to pay paul”

I bet you're no complaining about FRES today :-).

No look at last month - in line with others.

I repeat - pound strength v dollar

Look at other miners too... pound strength v dollar not helping - nothing other than that

Gold at 1902 as I type, plus pound down for obvious reasons- should be a good opening for us- stimulus agree in the USA - ok, so not the very high levels originally wanted by one side, but it’s some none the less and a start : “In the USA last night, Senate leadership announced a bipartisan deal on an approximately $900 billion economic relief package late Sunday afternoon that would deliver emergency aid to a faltering economy and a nation besieged by surging coronavirus cases.“

Really? All clear- 02 and 21oct RNS plus gold price dropped since then - take out the RNSs and were following most other miners- listen to the recent CEO webcast if you are unsure why holding is the way to go- nothing has happened to change my positive view for gold short to medium term

Listen to the FED news this pm, and ensuing commentary if you want the latest on gold

Haha!

Like I said on 9th December, along with my rationale, why I disagreed with JP Morgan on Gold and Bitcoin - both rising nicely