Member Info for Ste2000

seems shorts still have this absolutely within their control. so important now for THG to announce whales

agree Okey, they know they is massive value and he probably has insider knowledge on the longer strategic plans.

good money to be made at this low price. low the way the bots are, as usual, trying to kill off good news.
if thg can release a series of positive updates consistently, it will kill the shorts and bots staretgy.

was he really? Okey, you're a regular sherlock holmes. good spot. yet another insider who knows the true value here.
to go with the big buys from the chairman and CEO.
hopefully more board members will join and more of them will buy shares to instill confidence

harsh drop - bad news coming down the line?

https://www.chargedretail.co.uk/2023/01/30/thg-ingenuity-and-digital/

someone wants out- 500k sales (4 trades) at under 53p in last 5 mins

ah the daily pre US sell down...red again? place your bets

share price allows drops when Elreverso and Elryan appear.....

Elreverso and Elryan are the same poster, and both have zero insights.

HH - pudding for sure ;)

ELREVERSO, you literally have no insights in this company. waste of space, waste of breath, waste of time. you're not worth it fella

you could any insights you share on thg? be great to debate.....
otherwise, hush down

its herrifying isnt it Goldenyears, you can see why the big II have so little respect for PIs when you see comments like this

HH - spot on, well explained. the risk is that, to date, THG have shown no ability to get their cash flow anywhere near under control. so if they continue with cash burn from last 3 years, they will only have circa 100-150m cash + 156m cash overdraft.

if however, they achieve FCF neutral in 2023 (as promised by moulding..oh dear, we heard this before), then of course net debt stays same\, but City have a lot more faith and shares become attarctive

if they generate FCF positive, thigs become very rosy (esp if organic ie not through one off sells which they need to do in 2023). then shares will re rate

of course a high margin ingenuity whale will help as it adds to bottom line. also, as Oke says, an equity sell could help as they should use it to pay of the 500m Long term debt

tuan - i suggest you go on 2 course. one for english language and one for finance

good debate Oke, thanks for that. enjoyed that we approach from totally different positions, but actually see the solutions to the THG issues in a similar way.

good luck with your investments - going to be an interesting ride. looking forward to the next debate

key, you have hit the nail on the head, and this is why CEO should never been Chair at same time, and never never been landowner at the same time - because his interests are not aligned with ours.

ingenuity cannot stop as it is the logistics of Nutrion and Beauty, buts its commerce division can be canned, and its capex cut back to 70m for total business.

then FCF should be used to pay down debt, reduce the annual finance costs from 100m back to 50m (which they have been for past 3 years).

so you have capex + finance at total circa 125m, ebitda should be 9% on say 2bn business so 180-200m per annum, and FCF of circa 75m...simple and this is why Moulding is a fool. he cant see it

For me, THG have to prove their business model in this micro economic climate - this mean growing organically, so forget anything other than small bolt ons (and no more CB F ups)

rightly, they are now focusing on Nutrition (a really great business - I am bullish on this), Beauty (they have good online assets but need a tie up with a high st retailer to be trully omni channel) and ingenuity (it will succeed with a whale, or die without one)

now they need to sell off all the 'other' parts. they must sell the hotels and spas within this H1 review. whilst they dont own the freehold anymore (terrible business decision), they can still sell the brand they own - an ecom business should not be advertising for chefs and housekeepers (see their website) - its literally mental.

ondemand - they have done the right thing here, and am sure they will continue only the profitable elements here

finally, they should sell off any non core freehold they have to maximise cash/ pay down debt esp with interest rates going up

Oxford, you are quite right, I am totally bearish on Moulding. He is an absolute liar. If you guide revenue and profits to the City/ to your shareholders, change it 4 times in 12 months, and then still materially miss it, you are either a compulsive liar, or a totally incompetent CEO. either way you will create shareholder erosion, and in most FTSE companies would pay for it with you job.

it seems Gallemore has been made the fall guy for this (COO come on, the lad has been smacked and demoted out - he ll be off by the board most likely soon). 2023 is final chance salon for moulding

this was the thesis of the recent Numis update one assumes. I think THG has enough cash, but if it continues on its path of destruction with Moulding at the helm (2022 burnt 220m cash) of course it will totally run out in 18 months.

FCF neutral and positive is a non negotiable - if he is not on track by mid year, moulding must be fired

at the exact same time, I fully respect Okey. He also clearly knows his numbers and had a very good idea on how THG can work.
Moulding is a great entrepreneur - not many could do what he has done. but the flipside of the coin is he is an absolutely terrible CEO, and no many could have done worse since THG has been listed publicly. his strenghts as an entrpreneur are his weaknesses as a CEO and public face to the City.

He needs to be removed from CEO and a pro come in. Gallemore being moved out suggests Allen has a plan. He has installed his allies everywhere. Once they get rid of Iain Mcdonald, you can bet your bottom dollar, Allen will strike and mould will be out (esp with the golden share almost irrelevant now/ and gone in Sept)
i have on authority more board members (min 1/ maybe 2) are coming very very soon and they are Allen picks.

it then becomes a strong buy

Mon, its not about points. its just about making money. without moulding as CEO and with at least 4 updates that hit/ exceed target, THG represents value. but once a liar, always a liar, and moulding is person non grata

all depends on the price one opens their short, okey. a lot of people started the short after the laughable/ despairable capital markets day so circa 600p, some this time last year, but only a TO could really hurt and thats if you opened since the last TO lies.
the market knows there is ZERO chance of takeover, as no interest in a low margin, low growth company who is soley ecom. focus now in only omni channel