Member Info for Starchild

Findme: an RNS is a Regulatory News Service. The ones that can affect a shareprice up or down are strictly confidential and usually are issued at 7am. Ever now and again, if confidential information is leaking or there is a threat it will, the BoD are obligated to release an RNS ASAP. This happened on 11/6/20 re the merger. Other RNSs, less confidential and regulatory in nature pop up during the day

Dear Stena Group

We are delighted that the BPC BoD has given you folks a possible TBA option to reap rewards from a JV. And that you can benefit from this amazing opportunity in 10 weeks’ time, on or after 1/9/20. (RNS 26/5 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w). You probably knew about the proposed BPC/CERP merger and other plans as yet not in the public domain, and are currently in negotiations with the BPC BoD to participate in this incredible opportunity.

I checked you folks out and your financials. Your Stena Drilling is a wholly owned subsidiary of the family owned Swedish conglomerate Stena AB. According to wiki, you are a conglomerate of three major Stena holding companies known as the 'Stena Sphere.' You are private companies owned by one family which means you don’t have to put up with winging grumpy shareholders like us. It is impressive your Group has made a profit every year since 1939 and has grown to include the largest ferry company in the world. You folks have fingers in various pies including energy and tankers. Another subsidiary is your Stena financing arm. These guys are good. Not only do they fund ships/ferries/tankers, they also make sure your cash and investments get a great ROI.

This leads me to believe a Stena BPC/CERP JV is a possible partnership made in heaven. For the equivalent in cost to just ONE exploration drill ship ($100m-$200m) invested in BPC you will get a percentage of oil found, we will use your drill ships when idle (to suit your schedules) and when oil is found, always use your oil tankers. We will even use some of your BPC investment to acquire a couple of small oil companies currently in distress, without diluting BPC shares.

What you will get in this JV is a once in a lifetime opportunity to earn a revenue percentage from any oil found in BPC and CERP acreage. Imagine if you could have had the same opportunity 50 years ago in the North Sea. Yet let’s look forward rather than back. Leo Koot will be joining the gifted BPC BoD. He has the reputation for having a nose that can sniff oil, similar to a Crufts award winning hunting dog.

Being Swedish, you probably love Abba. By 2023 the song ‘money, money, money’ will become your corporate anthem based on what you will earn from this deal. We look forward to working with you.

Bästa hälsningar

Starchild
xxx

Toldo, not quite. Please refer to 26/5/20 RNS announcing Stena have a 10% option they can trigger after 1 September. I'm going to write a detailed analysis later today on Stena possibilities. Have a great day.

I fully understand why some folks are awaiting further news before making the decision. However, I believe RNS's will be forthcoming (BPC and CERP). However my take on this, regardless whether RNSs materialized, is the CERP BoD would never ever have agreed to the merger (unanimously) without proof of (a) funding Persv-1 (b) liquidity to expand CERP acreage. I believe a JV is on the cards (possibly Stena) and/or a financial institution (eg Morgan Stanley) has agreed to underwrite a corporate bond/loan offering through the capital markets secured by CERP/BPC assets.

Irene, stand down against me and others on this forum and so will I. (Even though we could share royalties in a future book of BB insults and polite sarcastic put-downs, I haven't got the time ) Frankly speaking i have no issue against anyone who has a difference of opinion to me unless they spread false news or defend persons that do. Furthermore, your original issue against me was i was pumping and ramping BPC. I was not. Despite no profits, no dividends.....If I sold my BPC shares tomorrow, my capital gains are substantial. I hope we meet in future as friendly step-siblings after the merger. good luck. go in peace. have a great evening.

Irene dearest, re your posts below. I've never owed a CERP share in my life. I'm lobbying for the merger with BPC.

BTW, it is such a pleasure getting another typed personal attack from your dainty fingers. I imagine in a previous life you were a killer whale but a compassionate orca. At least you played with baby dolphins for 2 hours before biting their cute little heads off. This resulted in re-incarnation to human form, albeit with a few personality misgivings and questionable analytics skills. Have a great day sweetie. xxx

...............
Starfish "Irene sweetie, a word of fatherly advice: it is not good for your health, analytical skills or the quality of your posts on this forum….to pour half a bottle of cheap gin on your cornflakes "

Starfish, I'm guessing rather it was yourself who spat out his cornflakes, when you saw yourself quoted in the Ramper's Handbook.

Buys showing as sells is a common observation on AIM stocks with low volume, often with allegations MMs are pulling a fast one. MMs are bots with human supervision. Furthermore if a buy or sell is above or below mid-price, it is automatically shown as such. Example: spread 2.00p - 2.10p. If I buy at 2.04p it is shown as a sell automatically. If I bought or sold at exactly mid-price of 2.05p at the time, it is often shown as black on a level 2 console or in the list of all trades, as system doesn't know whether it is a buy or sell.

Irene sweetie, a word of fatherly advice: it is not good for your health, analytical skills or the quality of your posts on this forum….to pour half a bottle of cheap gin on your cornflakes instead of milk every morning. xxx

only6: At this time I take oil man Jim's opinion with a pinch of salt. I wrote a detailed opinion of his take re BPC here on 7/6/20 16:52. OMJ will likely recommend BPC the day the SP is low enough for him to buy-in, which may be never if an RNS hits the wires in next few days or weeks!

Quick summary of the facts:
1. in March and today, BPC has $11m in the bank
2. in March, had Covid-19 not happened, BPC could have executed CLNs to fund $24m-36m (I haven't got exact numbers without spending an hour) in the event no JV/farm-in was on the cards. This was subjec to certain conditions. This is fully documented and is in various RNSs and presentations at the time. Also refer to refer to https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:BPC/Bahamas-Petroleum-Company-PLC/ where it states, ‘ Funded regardless of farm-out’

I would say, the goal posts have changed substantially since then due to proposed merger with alternative sources of funding or JV on the cards.

Approximately one month ago, the Bahamian family institution exercised its option and acquired c120m BPC shares at 1.27p. This was the last CLN in play as there are no more live options from monies BPC has accessed since 1st quarter. In other words, today BPC has no debt and no CLNs outstanding.

These CLN shares came into play on or about 4/6/20. Between then and 16/6 some large sells appeared in the range of 1m and 3m per day. I exclude the mayhem on 11 and 12 June, following the merger announcement, when it is hard to deduce anything. I suspect the CLN holder has been disposing of its shares in chunks. Had they dumped, it would have resulted in substantial downside creating less profit to the CLN holder.

I therefore believe there is a probability one of the following applies to the CLN holder as of today:
1. It has disposed of ALL the outstanding shares and removed the artificial barrier for the SP to increase.
2. It knows something we don’t, for example an RNS is about to be issued.
3. It has disposed of an amount of shares equal to the loan and keeping some back to ride the wave. Remember, even if the shares were sold at 2.6p, they doubled their money, so all they had to do was sell 60 million.
4. It did a direct deal via Shore Capital with the financial institution J.M Finn, who disclosed on 12/6/20 it holds 1% of all BPC shares.
5. It did not wish to sell any more shares (assuming it has any) due to low volume over last few days.

Although I am not a day trader, for those that are, or those that are awaiting a good entry price to top up long-term……please consider the possibility of the above, specifically points 1-4.

Bottom line: everyone is awaiting further news which is why trading volumes have been low, however without the CLN holder disposing of any more shares in chunks of 1m-3m, it will likely cause an upward movement, albeit gradual, because there is no artificial resistance caused by this. However I could be wrong.

Starchild
xxx

Joat: excellent post!

Dear AI Bot

[Hi Guys, this is the 2nd and last time I will post this for my AI experiment. I did it today as BB is quiet]

According to the website pumpdedordumped com, I am number 178 in the all time list of ramping or de-ramping CERP.
Apparently, and I quote from the above,…. ‘Ramping data is collected via Natural Language processing - Sentiment analysis - Keywords - copy paste posts - repetitive content and is fully automated AI code. No humans keep lists’

You must be a highly intelligent Bot, however clearly have a few screws or binary bits missing. I wish to bring to your attention the following:
1. I have never owned, directly or indirectly a CERP share in my life. As such why would I ramp or de-ramp CERP?
2. I have never posted any recommendation to buy or sell a CERP share in my life.
3. I only started posting on the LSE CERP forum approx. 1 week ago due the proposed BPC merger.
4. I note you automatically and cunningly analyse ‘sentiment’. Unfortunately, if I typed what I felt about you, I would be banned from this forum for life and likely end up in jail.
5. Do you have a bot lawyer? If not you better get one, as I’m considering suing your sorry little bot ar+e (bot bottom).
6. Go back to bot school.

To test your bot intelligence, the following five statements are to see if I can get in the top 100 in your CERP list with just ONE POST which I will copy/paste once:
(a) I think CERP is the most amazing stock in the world. It will soar in value this week. Buy now before it is too late otherwise you will cry.
(b) I highly recommend this wonderful stock. Buying CERP now will make you a millionaire.
(c) Any person (such as me) NOT owning CERP shares is clearly an idiot or mentally deranged.
(d) If CERP was alive and a woman of childbearing age, I would want to father its lovechild. We will call the baby CERPY.
(e) I am related to Brigadier General Balawanga Bo+lockpeedongo (retired) who has genuine CERP insider information, and gave me this incredible share tip, so hurry.

Starchild
xxx

The Share Price on successful spud before full due diligence and quality analysis that can take months, please refer to
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html

Above states ....'Bahamas Petroleum Company (LON:BPC) is in the final stages of completing the funding necessary to drill its inaugural exploration well (Perseverance-01) offshore Bahamas, which it expects to spud in the second quarter of 2020. The current valuation is inline with its peers, but with an estimated 1,030mln barrels of Prospective Resources (UBEST) targeted by its first well, a successful discovery will see the potential to see fair value rise to $1,014mm (36p/share), over 10x the current share price.'

Ignore 36p SP price for now, however based on the above analyst research note in Feb 2020, it is approximately $1 market capital per 1 barrel. So if 770mboe is found, this is +/- $750m. If 1440mboe it is approx $1.4b market cap. Divided by approx 3.3 billion shares assuming CERP merger happens. However please refer to my 07:57 DETAILED post this morning.
There is a further ironic twist to the possible SP. If UK has a hard Brexit, Sterling will devalue against USD. BPC although on the UK AIM, will have a major asset valued in US dollars.

Bottom line: the price will depend on various motivations, risk appetite and predictions by the markets, the morning after it is announced there is oil, the amount, global news, company news and what develops in the short term. It will certainly be a fun time for a few weeks. If you think this BB is a little busy since 11/6/20, wait to see what will happen then!

Gnomie, good timing. Please refer to my earlier posts of this morning. You can then decide for yourself.

Bully, again for clarification and for the avoidance of doubt:
1. My last 2 posts did not predict the share price
2. My last post did not endorse or agree to other persons' predictions

i cannot see how you can state I am doing either.

Bully, I am not predicting SP prices. Read my post again. It refers to other's opinions with some analysis and opinion on my part.

(1) BPC Share price on success.
I leave it to expert analysts with PhDs coming out of their ears and respectable organizations to predict share prices. In the Dr Zac presentation I referenced in my previous post, he predicted the possibility of 36p on success assuming ‘only’ 770mboe. I will add some opinions on this figure which I assume was an overnight SP surge and price correction upon an RNS announcement:
(a) I believe the figure did not take into account ‘if there’s one success, there could be others nearby.’ (b) It is based on 770bboe not the upside figure of (>2bboe for the whole P structure). Another way of putting it is, ‘there’s more gold in ‘dem hills.’ (c) It does not take into account the months that follow after the overnight announcement of the find. Remember the quantity and quality of the find has to be analysed and proven further. (d) He did not know Covid-19 would become a global pandemic, nor about the temporary PoO collapse. However although this has a bearing on investor sentiment, any find would not be exploited for 3-4 years. Some analysts predict PoO could go to $100+ by then. Especially if the majors who have reduced capex and shale, can’t fill demand (by the time BPC oil is commercialised) which will delight OPEC+. (e) There’s one other factor Dr Zac did not know about: the proposed merger with CERP. This leads me to the conclusion, if substantial oil is found, the BoD has already given a signal: a possible intent to acquire, merge or even hostile bid against smaller explorers that have not weathered recent events very well. It can leverage capital markets to acquire small explorers before earning 1c in actual production. (f) Many investors look at a BoD, before investing. I believe Leo Koots involvement will be seen very positively.
(2) BPC Share price if the merger goes through: This leads me to your (Petroliuminvest) question, ‘Starchild on what to expect in terms of SP, but when the YES vote goes through?’ My answer would depend on RNSs (which I expect) until then, specifically clarification on funding the Spud(s). In my opinion it will be a lot higher than 3p, based on everything in the post above, but I leave it to specialist analysts to provide numbers. However, let’s look at historical events below to get some ideas……..
(3) BPC share price until spud and during spud: BPC hit an intraday 1 year high of 5.7p SP on 25th Feb 2020 when the planned spud was imminent. The markets were fully aware BPC would likely trigger a large CLN(s) at the time to pay for the spud (although there was talk of farm-ins). And the markets were aware any CLN holder would likely give notice to be issued with shares @2p ASAP and sell them in case the spud result proved inconclusive and they were left holding the baby.
My conclusions: investors, perhaps even institutional ones, will see massive potential of part 1,have some risk appetite (part 2) and even greater appetite until part 3. Subject to JV/capital markets RNS cl

(1) BPC Share price on success.
I leave it to expert analysts with PhDs coming out of their ears and respectable organizations to predict share prices. In the Dr Zac presentation I referenced in my previous post, he predicted the possibility of 36p on success assuming ‘only’ 770mboe. I will add some opinions on this figure which I assume was an overnight SP surge and price correction upon an RNS announcement:
(a) I believe the figure did not take into account ‘if there’s one success, there could be others nearby.’ (b) It is based on 770bboe not the upside figure of (>2bboe for the whole P structure). Another way of putting it is, ‘there’s more gold in ‘dem hills.’ (c) It does not take into account the months that follow after the overnight announcement of the find. Remember the quantity and quality of the find has to be analysed and proven further. (d) He did not know Covid-19 would become a global pandemic, nor about the temporary PoO collapse. However although this has a bearing on investor sentiment, any find would not be exploited for 3-4 years. Some analysts predict PoO could go to $100+ by then. Especially if the majors who have reduced capex and shale, can’t fill demand (by the time BPC oil is commercialised) which will delight OPEC+. (e) There’s one other factor Dr Zac did not know about: the proposed merger with CERP. This leads me to the conclusion, if substantial oil is found, the BoD has already given a signal: a possible intent to acquire, merge or even hostile bid against smaller explorers that have not weathered recent events very well. It can leverage capital markets to acquire small explorers before earning 1c in actual production. (f) Many investors look at a BoD, before investing. I believe Leo Koots involvement will be seen very positively.
(2) BPC Share price if the merger goes through: This leads me to your (Petroliuminvest) question, ‘Starchild on what to expect in terms of SP, but when the YES vote goes through?’ My answer would depend on RNSs (which I expect) until then, specifically clarification on funding the Spud(s). In my opinion it will be a lot higher than 3p, based on everything in the post above, but I leave it to specialist analysts to provide numbers. However, let’s look at historical events below to get some ideas……..
(3) BPC share price until spud and during spud: BPC hit an intraday 1 year high of 5.7p SP on 25th Feb 2020 when the planned spud was imminent. The markets were fully aware BPC would likely trigger a large CLN(s) at the time to pay for the spud (although there was talk of farm-ins). And the markets were aware any CLN holder would likely give notice to be issued with shares @2p ASAP and sell them in case the spud result proved inconclusive and they were left holding the baby.
My conclusions: investors, perhaps even institutional ones, will see massive potential of part 1,have some risk appetite (part 2) and even greater appetite until part 3. Subject to JV/capital markets RNS cl

Petroleum, your post [on BPC forum] in the middle of the night was very well reasoned. I will attempt to answer your question addressed to me, however it will take 2 separate posts to answer. You mentioned the North Sea, and I will initially add some observations in this post.

North Sea vs Bahamas territorial waters EEZ
North Sea: size 575.000Km2. First large commercial discoveries c1970. Over the last 50 years several majors and smaller oil/gas companies have earned a fortune. Royalties/taxes are shared by several countries predominantly UK/Norway. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is approximately $1 TRILLION due to this. This is c$200,000 for every man woman and child. A baby born to a Norwegian parent last night has the security of $200,000 being invested today by the State for his/her future welfare and pension.

The Bahamas EEZ has a potentially oil rich area of 218,292 Km2. It is owned by a population of only c400,000 and is 40% the size of the whole North Sea. Bristol has a larger population. I’ve been to the Bahamas and witnessed its beautiful Islands and wonderful people who have suffered two back to back disasters: a devastating hurricane and a global pandemic. They do not have a Norwegian type sovereign wealth fund YET. One company, BPC, has the exclusive exploration rights to 10% of Bahamas’ waters.

The potential oil and percentages chance of success were very well summarized by Dr Zac Phillips in February: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html/long. Ostensibly the potential is in the billions of barrels. Some analysts use the term, ‘potential finds of Middle Eastern proportions’.

A BPC Share price observations post will follow later today, as I have some additional thoughts and rationale not covered by Dr Zac, because he didn’t know about events between writing his report until today.

Have a great day all

Petroleum, your post in the middle of the night was very well reasoned. I will attempt to answer your question addressed to me, however it will take 2 separate posts to answer. You mentioned the North Sea, and I will initially add some observations in this post.

North Sea vs Bahamas territorial waters EEZ
North Sea: size 575.000Km2. First large commercial discoveries c1970. Over the last 50 years several majors and smaller oil/gas companies have earned a fortune. Royalties/taxes are shared by several countries predominantly UK/Norway. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is approximately $1 TRILLION due to this. This is c$200,000 for every man woman and child. A baby born to a Norwegian parent last night has the security of $200,000 being invested today by the State for his/her future welfare and pension.

The Bahamas EEZ has a potentially oil rich area of 218,292 Km2. It is owned by a population of only c400,000 and is 40% the size of the whole North Sea. Bristol has a larger population. I’ve been to the Bahamas and witnessed its beautiful Islands and wonderful people who have suffered two back to back disasters: a devastating hurricane and a global pandemic. They do not have a Norwegian type sovereign wealth fund YET. One company, BPC, has the exclusive exploration rights to 10% of Bahamas’ waters.

The potential oil and percentages chance of success were very well summarized by Dr Zac Phillips in February: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html/long. Ostensibly the potential is in the billions of barrels. Some analysts use the term, ‘potential finds of Middle Eastern proportions’.

A BPC Share price observations post will follow later today, as I have some additional thoughts and rationale not covered by Dr Zac, because he didn’t know about events between writing his report until today.

Have a great day all