Member Info for StarBright

+13%

When the pimp’s in the crib ma, drop it like it’s hot…

FCA short positions daily update https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx shows Bronte going to 0.49% on Jan 12th 2022. No further disclosures since then.

Probably long gone even gone long ;)

Well.... Firstly, Clovis didn't sell "...at the same phase as avacta..." for 600m. They sold for 50m, with any further consideration conditional upon realised commercial success. That this is repeatedly characterised as having sold for 600m is a prime example of the ramping to which I referred.

I view AVCT as a great holding for the speculative compartment of a diversified portfolio. The rewards it may offer are not without risk.

If the p1a outcome is positive I am hopeful of a material uplift in valuation, perhaps 50%+ from where we are today. If the p1a results are accompanied by news of a licensing deal then a greater uplift, which would be fantastic. But - If the pathway to commercial success is not quite so clear then the current MCap will be hit as impatient speculators depart.

I do not believe that clinical success in p1a ALONE will drive the kind of multi-bag response some are looking for. I'll be happy to be proved wrong on this!

In time - given further success/progress in both clinical trials and commercial realisation - higher valuations for AVCT are absolutely possible, and I plan to remain invested in the hope that these might be realised.

Holders, posters here and the wider market are all behaving as though they are relaxed about the events unfolding here.

The only paranoia on show is from the over-their-skis rampers who've been flying this to death on here and on twitter with a bravura display of soaring promises and exhortations. I guess I'd be a little nervous if I were one of them too, as the possible to crash land remains real.

This is not a little-known share, nor is it a misunderstood situation. It has been widely trailed around the professional and PI markets, and the SP today represents the balance point between conflicting views on the likelihood and magnitude of commercial success. Whilst the upside may be high, canny holders will recognise that an EV of £330m bakes in a significant assumption that all goes well.

Let's hope it can be landed safely!

Attempts here to fit fanciful theories to misunderstood information are sadly misguided.

The LTIP/ESOS share issuance likely relates to the options granted to AS (4m) & TG (1m) in 2020. These options provided for variable vesting based on the average share price during the three years to December 2022, so the data needed for the sliding scale calculation would now be available. See page 61 of the annual report https://tinyurl.com/bdf2kakx , the relevant note says:

"Note 2 – This option provides that, unless waived at the discretion of the Remuneration Committee of the Board and it has not lapsed, it will vest as to one quarter of the award if the share price exceeds an average of 44p per share between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2022. If the share price between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020 exceeds an average of 110p per share, then one quarter of the award will vest. If the share price between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2021 exceeds an average of 110p per share, then one quarter of the award will vest. If the share price between 1 January 2022 and 31 December 2022 exceeds an average of 110p per share, then one quarter of the award will vest. A linear sliding scale will operate should the share price fall in the range between 44p and 110p for any of the three calendar periods 2020, 2021 and 2022. On the assumption that the vesting conditions are met, the option holder cannot exercise or sell the shares prior to 31 December 2022."

The EMI related issuance will be just that, the annual allocation of scheme shares as in previous years.

Not really possible/effective in SETSqx shares like AVCT because the volume (eg all 303 trades today) goes through the RSPs, who will pull the plug if anything starts to move. Algo's generally effective in main market listings where the order book prevails.

Price action is - however - the ultimate truth and +18% ytd tells us the wider market is on board and looking for good news.

No. It's not telling us anything of the sort. Shares allocated through the scheme have to be issued, which results in a notifiable change to the shares in issue figure. This is that notification.

Way too much ill-informed guessing and hype here...

Changes to the text likely reflect the lawyering-up process re content and language that I mentioned last week when there was a discussion about "hints". AVCT will need to be extremely clear and tight over what they do and don't say.

That's nonsense @Hurst10. The block listing announcement is just a necessary/scheduled operational requirement for the company's share-based remuneration scheme(s).

@MrRipley - 38 posts on AVCT this morning so far, and only two of them from @systemzero are negative. There's little evidence of an army of "concerned investors", if anything quite the opposite. Best to keep it real and react to what you see rather than what you fear....

-50% from the "$10M vote of confidence" just 7 weeks ago. I'm sorry to see this for holders, but the signs were there.

Interesting speculation re a licensing deal, but tom_the_bomb tells us that AVCT have confirmed they'll be retaining AVA6k...

I doubt it.

It's MLK day. NY size buyers are locked out today..;>

Psychologists tell us that the perceived confidence and certainty of a supposed expert’s content and voice has a greater impact on their ability to exert influence than the demonstrated success/failure of their track record. It’s why we vote for the likes of Boris…

Nuuk (GMT +3hrs) size buyers lifting 132p obvs…

TA is an interesting tool, but are there any factors outside of recent price and volume action that investors might wish to keep a watchful eye on here? Asking for a friend, obvs...

I am told that these low-value trades are frequently driven by the (shall we say) more gamified end of the investment platform spectrum. There are some "free trading" apps that will commit uninvested cash on account in-line with the holders existing portfolio or some other pre-determined shape on a regular basis. If you hold a sensible dividend paying share in one of these accounts and receive a divi worth (say) £130 and your AVCT holding is 5% of your portfolio/shape then an order for 5 shares will be instructed.

I'm inclined to accept this explanation as I can't believe that a sentient being would place an order for £6.50.

Lifted.

@RAH0084 said: “ Yes, he might make a passing on comment on “preliminary signs of efficacy”… he *might*. He might not.”

The potential impact of statements regarding efficacy means they’ll be lawyer-scripted to the hilt on this topic. When I was involved in analyst/investor meetings we always had a pre-brief on where the red lines were with respect to any sensitive topics. What we could and couldn’t say, even down to the specific language we would use on these topics and whether there were topics that we would have to decline to respond on. In particular we were always very careful to ensure that didn’t inadvertently make any selective disclosures (ie to people in the room) that hadn’t already been RNS’d. There is a fine line on providing “colour”, but tolerance for indiscretion here is very low. I know there are some notorious cases where excited CEO’s have lifted the lid, but AVCT seems to be professionally/conservatively run and I would expect them to be very well prepared.

So I don’t agree that there might be passing comment on efficacy. If he has something verifiable and substantive to impart it will have been RNS’d and he’ll cover it properly. If he doesn’t have such supportable clarity he’ll steer well clear of any hints/slips/musings/passing comments. This might be very frustrating for him and for investors…

Some facepalm errors on display too...

Who bought 306,871 shares at 3.2p and then sold them half-an-hour later at 2.52p...? That's a -21% round trip!