Member Info for StarBright

When you feel you've been misled, check first that you haven't misled yourself.

Lots of nonsense on this board already today. The idea that there will be a "Golden RNS" with all the details of volume, pricing etc that sends the SP into the stratosphere has always been a chimera. Particularly when viewed alongside the reality of a civil service purchasing process operating in a highly politicised area. The newsflow process isn't designed with investors in mind, and it is pointless to criticise it from that perspective.

The jigsaw picture is being formed in front of our eyes, but there are more pieces to be revealed before we know what it is. Investors should buckle up and sit tight.

I wouldn’t be too negative about this! Very rarely (if ever?) have I seen the “Golden RNS” that PI’s have been waiting for. It’s just not how the world works. Expect further news (test identity, start date, contract economics etc) over the coming weeks.

Excellent.

Okehurst - I don’t understand your point that pre-announcement manufacturing isn’t “priced into the equation”. If the contract is for £374m that’s what will drive any re-rate. It won’t make any difference that some have been manufactured before the announcement.

What will matter most is the economics (pricing) on a per-unit basis. Let’s hope the company are able to give some guidance on this in whatever announcement they make.

And people wonder why LSE boards get laughed at....

chapsville - HL are only showing you the market. They aren't involved in the price-setting mechanism. They are not the bandits you are looking for...

When broadly similar contracts have been released (ie for other tests / drugs / PPE etc) have they featured the granular details like volume and pricing that posters here are looking for? Have the companies involved released detail on attributable gross margin?

....vacuous ramping.... give it a rest....

CautiousOptimist: you wouldn’t normally discount future earnings if you are using a PE methodology. The discount is “in” the multiple already. You need to include tax though.

Using your figures, I’d go this route:

£3m additional revenues
Assume no additional costs, but earnings are after tax at 20% (assuming a profitable company!)
Earnings therefore increased by = £2.4m

P/E multiple of 20x, adjusted down by 50% for “execution risk”= 10x

=£24m on MCap.

So I agree with your output, if not your method..!

Good stuff guys. Thank you.

smiller - I think the two etf’s you mention are US domiciled, in which case they aren’t available to UK or European retail investors.

The many entertaining videos posted here are great on investing themes, but when you get to the practicalities of implementation it’s important to remember that the regulatory framework here is very very different. Retail investors in the UK sticking to mainstream providers are afforded far better protection than the relative wild west that is the US.

smiller - I’m sure that JPM are involved in all of the activities you suggest. I am sure they take short positions in commodities, I know they were fined for manipulation etc. I’m not denying any of that that. They will however only be conducting these activities with their own proprietary assets, or on behalf of clients who have given them discretionary permission to use specific client assets.

napthman1 suggested that we should place limit orders to prevent our UFO shares from being lent to shorters. In response I pointed out that this isn’t necessary for those of us who use the mainstream UK investing platforms, because those platforms don’t lend client assets to anyone. In a later post I answered your (well directed!) question about who checks this. I hope this helps, but please feel free to ask further questions.

Thank you EWT98. This was getting beyond parody....

Q for JAdam (who really should know better...) and jemchipsa...

If the company issued more shares would it’s market cap go up?

Some of you need to watch the pizza video...

Value of company (Market cap) = size of pizza
Number of shares in issue = number of slices

Whether you cut the pizza in eight slices (like Jen) or twelve (as suggested by Brad) the size of the pizza remains the same. The value of the company is not affected by the size of the slices. The value of the company is the discounted value of the future cash flows investors expect it to generate. It varies not according to the number of shares (slices), but according to investor expectations for future cash flows. The number of shares can be varied (for example through a consolidation or stock-split, or even a dilutive placing) without impacting the value of the company. It’s not that hard people....

JAdam - how is the number of shares in issue used in calculating the market cap of a company?

https://youtu.be/WsN7CqzaE6A

“The Downside Valuation is due to too many shares out there for what value exists...“

How does the number of shares have an impact on the valuation (Market Cap) of a company?

Interesting reaction. To me he looks very different to the many slick AIM CEO's who have pumped their shares and pocketed the proceeds...

If you buy SLV on a mainstream UK platform that says in their t&c’s that they don’t do lending, your SLV shares won’t be lent to anyone.

Who checks? Back-office reconciliation teams at the platform every day. Compliance teams at both the platform and their custodian. Auditors of both the platform and its custodian. Periodically the FCA in monitoring or thematic reviews. If any of the mainstream UK platforms were caught lending client assets in direct contravention of their t&c’s they wouldn’t survive the regulatory and reputation law fallout, and none of their directors would ever regain FCA approved person status.

Take a look at my post history. Take a look at napthman1’s. One of us runs a recruitment agency. The other retired recently in his 40s from running an investment management business. Decide for yourself which “muppet really need to educate them selfs”...