Member Info for StarBright

Dunning-Kruger2021 was a particularly disruptive nuisance poster. This board is better without him.

Mr Tan was an inventive creation from a regular poster. I enjoyed his contribution and am sorry if he’s gone.

A one-off dividend wouldn't really be a positive. It's simply a return of capital - arguably in a tax-inefficient format for many private investors. It would also signal a certain lack of ambition.

Should Omega find itself with "excess" profits and cash, then finding a way to reshape its shareholder base might be a better objective...

A pipe-dream for the moment anyway!

Not sure I’m the one with attitude MattDamon85...

If you read my post you’ll see that what I did was take PSB’s assumptions and apply a DCF methodology rather than a multiple. You should address your questions on assumptions to him.

@Jaylarc: “When I do the math for PreCision platform I come up with potentially over £100 billion mcap for this alone.”

Can you share your calculation in outline terms, as PSB and I have done? With valuations the journey (methodology, assumptions, inputs etc) is generally more interesting/illuminating than the destination...

Thanks for setting this out. Discussing possible valuations is a good discipline, and a good use of a discussion board.

Margin per test and volume are - as you say - the biggest unknowns. I think the durability of demand may be a factor. I would be wary of applying multiples as you have, because they contain an implicit assumption of longevity that may not hold true. I would suggest instead taking the prospective cashflows for a foreseeable period (say 7 years) and applying a discount rate to these. This methodology can provide a better way to model the uncertainty inherent in future cashflows - for example were a superior competitor product to arrive. It's also necessary to include the impact of corporation tax; hopefully AVCT will be paying plenty of this..!

Working with your figure of £240m (10m tests x 12 months x £2)

Tax at 20% reduces this to £192m

I'll use 7 years, and a 15% discount rate (representing the annual return an investor might look for from an investment like this). Thoughts/input on these welcomed.

This gives an NPV of £799m or £3.14/share FOR THE LFT BUSINESS AS DESCRIBED IN THESE NUMBERS

If monthly volumes and margins are higher (say 15m and £3) then this changes to £1,797m or £7.08/share

Of course these numbers have to be added to whatever you think the rest of AVCT might be worth.

They do show what many of us have understood and acknowledged for some time - that some degree of expectation for LFT economics is baked into the current SP.

So, significant upside potential from where we are, although I can't get near to the £40-£50 mentioned at the end of your post on LFT alone.

These recurring “can’t buy” conversations on LSE boards really are nonsense..! Specifically, the way that posters interpret the information they think they’ve gleaned from their aptly-named dummy buys. If you think you’re being a cool kid posting these insights, the reality is that you are pointing a big arrow at your own lack of knowledge.

There are any number of reasons why market orders placed on retail platforms might not be hit immediately. Not least because of the complex but sometimes shoddy plumbing between platforms and RSP’s. Some of the platforms use a wider panel of RSP’s than others, and some (frankly) are more stable than others. In many cases we see a poster excitedly saying that they can’t buy, and another poster pops up saying “rubbish - I’ve just bought 5k (or whatever) shares”. This happens because of the differences between platforms. If you want good execution you are better off using one of the established major players. Some of them (Barclays is a good example) have more RSP links than others. Their users will frequently be able to get prices (and better prices) when users of other platforms can’t. When you “can’t buy anything” it probably isn’t because “MM’s are helping their II mates to fill their boots”, it’s more likely your platform has a glitch and you are misinterpreting what you are seeing in line with your confirmation basis....

Online market orders at or around NMS will never reveal much of use regarding market depth. If you want to buy some shares at (say) 240p, the best way to achieve this is to place a limit order and sit tight. It is frequently possible to get orders in multiples of RMS filled inside the quoted spread. You might be surprised at both the price and size you can secure, even when this kingdom is full of one-eyed-men posting “NT to buy” etc...

https://twitter.com/PictureSporting/status/1374012145101197319

Quick answer: Yes to lowering.

They are different propositions. One essentially a contract manufacturer that appears to be playing its cards (with respect to the commitment of capacity) carefully with risk management in mind, the other a de-novo IP generator with credible technology and appropriately lofty ambitions.

I have owned both since last spring. Both have potential. Both are far from de-risked despite the insistence of posters on these boards. Competitive, regulatory, political and execution risks remain very real. Both may see significant downside from their current SP’s.

That said, differing views on those same risks mean that both have significant potential to generate returns during the next 12-24m.

My view is that AVCT has greater upside potential. ODX perhaps has a higher probability of achieving its goals - in part because they are less of a stretch. In simple terms, AVCT offers a longer-odds shot at a relatively greater return.

Mr Tan is an entertainingly comedic character created by a regular poster. His back-story of Scottish-Asian fusion food etc is very funny. I’ve enjoyed his posts, and the reactions they provoke. Hilarious at times.

Goldtrig is a nuisance poster. A classic example of an empty vessel, and a clear net negative contributor.

For me, one loss and one gain.

Can you summarise/explain how you get from 2m tests per week to an SP of £1.50 to £2.00?

Perhaps one of the marketing experts here will take this role.

What do you mean by “should be double that”..? Why?

A few have just been printed.

To save readers of this board some time I have summarised below today's posts:

1. RNS out
2. Boom!
3. This is the big one
4. Shortz r gunna burn....
5. 120p at open for sure
6. Close above £2
7. If you sold on Friday you're going to have to pay to get back in
8. Avacta you boys are gonna take a terrible beating. Lord Nelson, Maggie Thatcher, Sir Winston Churchill, Lady Diana....
9. Pre-market looks strong
10. Choo choo.... No more tickets left for this train
11. Boom - here we go. Buys are flooding in.
12. Lift off - hold onto your seats. Sea of blue.
13. JBER sittin' on the ask...
14. Just MM's games - hold for glory
15. MM's dropping it to steal your shares
16. Make sure you don't have a stop loss - they want your shares
17. Letting the 10%'ers out
18. Wait for 10am when the big boys come on line
19. Being walked down - AIM is corrupt
20. Hold for gold - don't them steal your golden tickets
21. Happens every time. Let the day traders out and then the real rise will begin
22. Accumulation goin' on here. Someone is filling their boots. Wait for the delayed trades
23. Can't believe peeps are stupid enough to sell at this level
24. TR1s incoming. Hold for gold.
25. It's a tree-shake. Just MM's playing their games
26. I'm going to report this to the FCA
27. Can everyone sign my petition against people who sell shares?
28. This market is a joke
29. Wait for US traders to wake up and start buying at 2:30pm
30. I was right. Told you so all along.
31. Just wait until tomorrow. Market isn't as quick as us to understand RNS
32. Yeah - tomorrow's the day for the big one
33. Big news in Boris' presser at 5pm. All over Twitter
34. Watch this climb strongly into the close
35. Wouldn't want to be out of this overnight
36. Boom! Look at this late reported BUY for £20k. That's serious institutional money.
37. No, it's definitely a buy. Look at the colour of the ink.
38. Held down to let their mates in again
39. Tomorrow's the day
40. UT is out. UNCH for the day...

Perhaps there are developments that he wants to share at the Swiss Mining Institute event. None of these developments are particularly game changing, but maybe the Nomad has formed the view that they should all be publicly disclosed before he covers them in his presentation. Companies have to be very careful NOT to release new news at (closed) investor events, and Nomads are increasingly vigilant on this. Just a theory.

Ok boomers....

The revised corporate presentation is more titillating than the RNS.

https://www.alienmetals.uk/wp-content/uploads/Alien-Metals-Corporate-Presentation-March-21.pptx

No - this isn’t the RNS that many here have been waiting for because it is essentially silent on both sales volume and profitability. But the “gold plated RNS” was always an unrealistic expectation. News here is going to continue to surface in a somewhat fragmented way, not least because of the politicised environment around testing and (particularly) procurement.

This is great news though! One of the antigen tests we will be manufacturing has gained CE approval. Another big step forward.

The important take away (sorry Mr Tan...) from this is that it shows how Omega have remained focus on allocating their capacity across different tests. This is strategically sensible as we have seen that all tests are subject to approval delays and other issues. It is also critical to sustaining some pricing power.

One of the tests will be more profitable than the others, and there will be people on these boards shouting that all the capacity should have been allocated there. But I think that will be a hindsight view. The company has boxed clever by keeping its options open. Good work.

scaredy_cat: Wait until you want to trade a position during a period of market stress, and compare market depth/spread with underlying at that point. I’m not saying that spreadbets are a bad idea (I use them at times, particularly to scale into/out of positions) only that there are risks and costs that might not be immediately obvious,

Here’s a recent example. IG decided to increase margin requirements on a long list of shares from 25% to 100%. For whatever reason(s) some account holders weren’t able to come up with the additional funds in the time required so ended up with their positions scaled back, in some instances crystallising losses that they would have expecting to ride out.