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Great question Romaron. I did some objective digging to try and answer what a reasonable valuation should be.

If we look at Enquest 2019 AR they had 212.5 MMboe and with Oil price assumptions (based on an internal view of forward curve prices of $63.0/bbl (2020), $65.0/bbl (2021), $67.0/bbl (2022) and $70.0/bbl real thereafter) Enquest valued the assets at $3,450 M. One year later they had 189 MMboe and with Oil price assumptions (based on an internal view of forward curve prices of $47.0/bbl (2021), $55.0/bbl (2022), $60.0/bbl (2023) and $60.0/bbl real thereafter) Enquest valued the assets at $2,630 M. The Net book value of the equity at 31.12.2019 was $560M and at 31.12.2020 was -$65M. I would assume today that the forward curve price assumptions should be closer to those at 31.12.2019 than 31.12.2020 and after the GE deal (18M 2P) our 2P assets should be closer to the 31.12.2019 number. Tax assets were also written down by net $73M so one could imagine that would be written up again as well.

Anyway, all things being equal if we assume that our Non-Current Assets are back at the similar valuation of 31.12.2019 after the GE acquisition then the current value of our assets should be the same as 31.12.2019 less the difference in Current Assets which was $180M giving $4,600M. Our total liabilities at 31.12.2020 were $3,771 M. At the same time we are taking on debt of $275M to finance the deal. I am simplifying somewhat as we have been earning net money on the GE acquisition and our own assets but all being equal or equity should be valued on the books at $4,600M - $3,771M - $275M which is interestingly $554M or the same value of the equity at 31.12.2019. Our SP hit 30p on 20.1.2020 when Brent hit a high of 65.98. Interestingly on 8.1.2020 Brent hit a year high of 71.2 and the SP was valued at 23.16. This year the SP hit a high on 8.3.2021 of 25.2p when Brent hit a high of $71.38.

What can one make of all of this? Not really sure but we should be comfortably valued at over 30p as Brent is now over $76, the book value of our equity should be valued at least at what it was last year after the GE acquisition and not accounting for any debt reductions which have occurred. Our time will come. Valuing equity is a difficult exercise but based on Enquest getting $61 a barrel and the communicated capex, opex and midpoint production assumptions (49K) and GE (10K) as well as the communicated SFA of $600M I get net debt of $1.1 BN at year end. According to my calculations and assuming that Brent carries on at these levels through 2021 and 2022 I see net debt being reduced to $575M by 31.12.2022 or FCF of $550M (after capex). I would value that at at least 2 x giving a mcap of $1,1BN or a SP of 40p assuming a total volume of shares of 1,850M after the RI.

So I see a path to 40p at least.

Sitting tight Waiting for the repairer spike. Today was just a rumbling:-)

I agree Romaron. I thought the holding was bigger. I also agree there is no problem with the debt. Who wouldn't want to lend money to AB :-)?

The new RFC will roll up the small debts floating around. Sculptor is USD Libor 6.3%, SFA is USD Libor + 4.75%, SVT is GBP Libor + 1%. Targeting $450M but most likely will be $700M so interesting to see what rate is negotiated.

Found this from 2015 Romaron:

The Amjad and Suha Bseisu Foundation, a charitable trust, of which Mr Bseisu is a trustee, notified the Company on 20 March 2015 that it had purchased 300,000 of the Retail Notes at 70 pence per Retail Note, totaling 1.93% of the total Retail Notes.

Looking for the rns. I think about 10% but haven't localised yet.

The debt holders probably have got wind that the equity holders are screwed and the bondholders will soon be taking over the company. AB is also a big debtholder so win-win for him

KO - in his head we lth are just a bunch of idiots WHO have ourselves to blame. God Forbid AB could have Done anything different ??

Very good pick. I can imagine that AB is not directly but rather indirectly manipulating the market. As Bastan writes - why would any company in their right mind engage in this type of trading with Enquest - it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. This is a washed up company with no sense of direction. The only sensible explanation is that the price is being moved to the level that AB wants it at - I would have guessed 21p but Ammu came out with 16p the other day and most likely it will be at a discount to enable AB to reduce his average price and make up for his past failings.

I do agree with you KO that someone is manipulating the SP. My money is on AB :-)

Living in filter bliss Mrc? So one can't come with negative comments if one is a lth? I don't care if you filter me. You are a knob anyway.

I prefer to analyse the hard facts and the hard facts are that shareholders have pumped over $300M into the company during the last 5 years and the mcap is $450M.

It is a bit problematic to talk about FCF for Enquest this year as they have a lump sum of $377m that needs to be paid on the RCF. In addition they capitalise interest payments when Brent averages under $65 but assuming that interest will be paid in the second half of this year I get FCF to be $60M after Investing and Financing flows are removed.

Anyway, I do agree with Jan that nothing will happen until the financing closes and that will be 1st October as that is when the SFA will be paid back.

That's a great find Pelle. I like the bold statement on slide 2 - STakeholder returns! These people obviously know how to run an oil company. Can they please help AB. FFS - what oil price is needed for this dog to turn around?

Pelle - something for you. I thought about the topic of dividends. Enquest has indeed been engaging in dividends since 2016 - reverse dividends. Think about it. 2016 - 357M shares for £82M and 2018 - 485M shares for £101M and now 2021 $50M. If we go back to august 2016 there were 830M shares on offer. So taking that as a starting point and assuming you wanted to maintain your % ownership of the company and with the upcoming $50M we shareholders are going to have paid $307M or 37c per share. Think about it. That is an annual reverse dividend of approx. 7c per share. Not bad Pelle!

But on a serious note, AB cannot build his business on going cap in hand to shareholders and banks everytime he has an idea. Who is his filter? JS? Collectively we need to put a stop to this madness

Lol Jan. You’ll be filthy angry that day. Better Warn us all

I am with you NorthernMonkey. I am in too deep so keeping going. I can see once the details are presented this should represent a different proposition. My Break-even is 20.5p so it is close.

Chits - who knows what you are doing on this forum any longer. You used to contribute with tanker information but now you just spout **** about green projects so move along....

This will not move up until AB informs everyone else of his plans for his private company. With an average Brent price of $61 and the GE acquisition I see that net debt pre GE should be around $1.1 BN (assuming cash at hand of $225M) and the GE remaining cost after the $50M that we will stump up should be $170M. The GE acquisition has been a good deal.

Now JS talked about a new RCF of $700M. I see that Enquest could make do with $450M so obviously he has plans for $250M whether it be capex next year on Bressay etc. If these Brent prices continue and with a production of 60k I can see Enquest paying off $700M from 1.10.2021 to 12.31.2022.

The issue is that the sp is as dead as a dodo and at some point management needs to answer for this lackluster performance to shareholders. With the 3 equity raisings combined shareholders have pumped $250M into a company now valued at $450M. The capital destruction is breathtaking. And yes one can blame a low Brent for the past number of years but a business cannot be built on rose coloured assumptions. As a business leader you have to have contingency plans in place and know your limits. AB had neither. Hopefully he has learnt his lesson for all our sakes.

Anyway, I hope he reveals what he knows to us all soon.

Lol romoron. Not as old as you so No meds yet. Have you taken your old age pills today?

On the 3rd February Enquest sp closed at 13.82p. On the 4th they announced the Suncor acquisition. On the 3rd Brent closed at $57.85. On the 28th May Enquest closed at 17.10p and today Brent is at $70.2. The market cap has increased $79M with usd gbp exchange rate at 1.42.

If we focus on the suncor assets, this was an acquisition of 18M barrels. They by themselves have increased in value by $224M if we do a simple calculation # barrels x Brent price differential. At $50 the NPV was $100M as they could accelerate the use of tax losses.

Talk of the 60p party is almost like talk of bernie Sanders becoming president of the USA

Yep - that is the painful lesson