RE: Barclays30 Oct 2021 11:18
I would like to see an updated set of accounts from Enquest. In theory what you write Pelle would make perfect sense but we know there is significant "leakage" of monies somewhere whether through sheer incompetence or more sinister actions on the part of AB. Cold hard facts - Average Brent YTD is $70. At H1 net debt was down $96.5M for a "bunch of reasons" as always.....
As someone posted yesterday Investor Relations said we should count with target production + 2,000. The net debt at H1 did not include the Magnus loan which should have been cleared by now and rolled up into the new RCF of $600M. If it was included I get a net debt of $1,246BN at H1 as Magnus including interest was around $60M.
So what have we ended up paying for GE after net profit was deducted and the RI of $50M? If we are generous and assume a nice round figure of $150M then we have a net debt of $1,396BN after GE closes. If we assume average production during H2 then of 48K (which is H1 + 2,000) and the average brent price during H2 which has been closer to $75 then I get FCF of $225M leaving a net debt of close to $1,17BN.
So, with an average Brent of $70 for the year and including the effects of GE (so average daily production close to 58k) the sum of all these actions is a change in net debt from $1,28 BN to $1,17BN less 60M for Magnus so we account similarly which gives a net debt reduction of $180M.
So behind all these "smoke and mirrors" of raising capital, buying new assets and so forth Average Brent of $70 for the year will yield a net debt reduction of somewhere in the vicinity of $200M. It is almost like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who has amassed a team of expensive talent and should on paper win the league but loses 0-5 to Liverpool at home.
Where is the "leakage"????