Member Info for Spondy

It didn't align correctly so here it is with spaces instead of tabs.

Metals Price Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24 Q2/24

Gold 1,957.38 1,985.48 2,009.41 2,033.74 2,058.45

Thanks for the link MH01. Admittedly I only skipped through the video but I did catch the bit where he see gold going to $5000/oz. I didn't hear him say when though. I don't know of this guy and I expect there are a lot of gold pundits/bulls available on YouTube. The top recommended in the list on the right of the video is why Warren Buffet won't invest in gold. Whether that's the metal or the stocks I don't know and I'm not going to watch it.

What I did find recently is the forecasts on Trading Economics and, for general interest purposes only, this is the next year of forecasts for gold. Hopefullt the tabbed data all lines up ok when I post this!

https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/commodity

Metals Price Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24 Q2/24

Gold 1,957.38 1,985.48 2,009.41 2,033.74 2,058.45

Hi MidasMac, thanks for the link.

Two sentences from the article; Currently, funds must tell the FCA when they have borrowed 0.1% of a company's outstanding stock in order to short it. Now, that threshold will increase to 0.2% of the stock.

I've just been reading that Jeremy Hunt appeared to overrule the FCA who wanted to keep the EU era regulations and opposed to the change.

I believe the threshold for public disclosure is 0.5% and that isn't mentioned. Why the difference? Should the public disclosure level be lowered to match the new 0.2% requirement?

Thanks for the link Sureasblazes.

It's a good piece with Shaun. The programme is an hour and a half. The GGP bit is between 0:59:40 and 1:13:20.

At https://greatlandgold.com/investors/regulatory-news/ if I click on the title and open todays Havieron Exploration and Development Update in a new browser tab I can see the images.

If I click on the document icon next to Havieron Exploration and Development Update I download the .pdf. When I open the .pdf with Adobe Acrobat Reader the images don't show. I only see the grey outlines of where they should be. The size of todays .pdf when saved is 107Kb whereas they are normally about 400Kb.

Has anyone downloaded the .pdf and are you able to see the images?

On mouseover the URL at the bottom left of the browser tab shows the pdf is an export of the Havieron Exploration and Development Update. I don't know whether the export is done by my browser but I would expect not.

I've checked previous Havieron Exploration and Development Update pdf's that I've saved and they have the images.

The RNS says the two VE ETFs cumulatively hold less than 5% of GGP and that threshold was crossed on 13th June by them having sold 5.3m shares and going from 5.05% to 4.95%.

There's nothing to say they've stopped selling or what their target holding is. They might have continued yesterday and today. Does anyone know the date that their rebalance has to be completed by? Did they issue the RNS because they had finished the rebalance or crossed the threshold? How long can they go after crossing a threshold before having to notify with an RNS? Could they have continued to sell for another week and then issued an RNS to say they crossed the threshold on 13th June?

The next notification from them, if at all, will be advising of having crossed the 5% threshold with an increased holding.

If the recent SP drop is due to selling 5.3m then consider what the post cross-listing Australian buying might also be able to do and we can expect the cross-listing to happen, I think in the September quarter so before the end of September. Following that the VE ETFs rebalance may well see them buying back what they've just sold and more.

I feel as though the pressure is building with all the positive catalysts for this company. I just don't see it ending in zero and as a LTH am hoping and expecting for multiples of where the SP is now.

Thank you for sharing Spikeyj. I was expecting the article to be paywalled but no I was able to read it in full. I notice the URL includes a shareToken. Just wondering, does The Times give you an option to share their pages with nonsubscribers?

Thanks for your replies. $2bn is some way off, roughly double the mcap from where we are at the moment.

Does anyone know what happened to the proposed US listing? I've not heard anything about it recently and was wondering whether they had abandoned the idea.

I've seen the sub 90p prices recently and fancied a topup this morning just after nine o'clock. As I was double checking everything, including my bravery and sanity, the price spiked from 90 to 90.5 which put me off as I've often seen spikes retrace. When they were back under 90 again I bought some more. I'm now slightly uncomfortably overloaded with DEC in the portfolio and especially this much on a single share. Nice to see it hit 92 later though.

I was looking for something other than rhyming, timewasting drivel in Mapp's posts. Nothing, so blocked.

Neversellshell22, how are you feeling about selling at 2578 today then?

24s are here a bit early for me. Three weeks and three days until new ISA season for buyback. Who knows where the SP will be by then.

Thanks to TILondon and Passer, that's it. One word, cumulative.

I found it after first checking todays FY22 report here;
https://group.legalandgeneral.com/media/xfdnx54j/finance_plc_2022_statutory_accounts_final-doc.pdf

and then the FY20 report here;
https://group.legalandgeneral.com/media/gusph55b/finance_plc_fy20vfinaldocx-3.pdf

and the FY19 report from 2020 here;
https://group.legalandgeneral.com/media/pybhqzsm/finance-plc-full-year-accounts-2019.pdf

I found it in todays 'Full press release and analyst pack PDF' here;
https://group.legalandgeneral.com/media/spgha3yo/fy22-press-release_analyst-pack.pdf

Page 1;
On track to achieve our five-year (2020-2024) ambitions4
• Cash generation of £1.9bn, up 14%. Capital generation of £1.8bn, up 10%
• Cumulative cash and capital generation on track with strong dividend headroom. To date:
? Cash generation of £5.1bn and capital generation of £4.9bn (£8.0-9.0bn by 2024)
? Dividends of £3.3bn (£5.6-5.9bn by 2024)
? Net surplus generation5 over dividends of £0.7bn

4. Cash generation defined as net release from operations and Capital generation defined as Solvency II operational surplus generation.

Page 7;
We set out five-year ambitions at our Capital Markets event in November 2020. Cumulatively, over the period 2020-2024, our
financial ambitions16 are for:
• Cash and capital generation (of £8.0bn - £9.0bn) significantly to exceed dividends (of £5.6bn - £5.9bn)17
• Earnings per share to grow faster than dividends, with the dividend growing at 5% to FY 2024
• Net capital surplus generation (i.e., including new business strain) to exceed dividends

16. The ambitions are based on the aggregate performance over a five-year period. Performance may vary from year to year and individual statements may not be met in each year on a standalone basis.

I must have missed the buyback? No mention of one in the FY22 results and no RNS titled 'Transaction in Own Shares' in the last 12 months.

On the buyback v divi question I would prefer the divi. Buybacks can hide stagnant earnings and show as increased EPS. If the company is generating cash and can't make a better return on it than buying back shares then I'd like it as a divi. Unless of course the shares are undervalued and we will all benefit in a few years time but that's all a bit 'jam tomorrow'.

I don't understand the £3.3bn of dividends. Can someone who does understand this help me to know where my simple calculations are going wrong? Thanks in advance.

Shares in issue 5.973 billion
Full year dividend 19.37p
Dividend amount 5,937,000,000 x 0.1937 = 1,156,389,000

My calculation makes the full year dividend £1.1bn and not £3.3bn. If the £3.3bn were paid to the 5.973bn shares in issue then the dividend per share for the year would be £0.5528, approximately 55p and a 20% yield.

Even better would be the projected £5.6-5.9bn by 2024. Taking the mid point £5.75bn and the same number of shares in issue would give 96 pence per share and 37% yield.

Calculations use the LSE figure for shares in issue and the remainder is from todays FY22 results.

Shares In Issue: 5.973 billion

Full year dividend of 19.37p, up 5% (2021: 18.45p), consistent with our ambition

Dividends of £3.3bn (£5.6-5.9bn by 2024)

Outlook
Cash and capital generation (of £8.0bn - £9.0bn) significantly to exceed dividends (of £5.6bn - £5.9bn)[25]

The Board has recommended a final dividend of 13.93p, giving a full year dividend of 19.37p, up 5% from the prior year (18.45p). This is consistent with our stated ambition to grow the dividend at 5% per annum to FY 2024.[34]

[25] Capital generation is Solvency II operational surplus generation. Dividends on a declared basis and originally on the basis of a flat final 2020 dividend, and 3-6% annual growth thereafter. Note: dividends have grown at 5% since HY21 and the Board stated publicly in November 2022 its aim to "continue to grow the dividend at 5% per annum to FY 2024": ifrs17-rns-final.pdf (legalandgeneral.com). Dividend decisions are subject to final Board approval. Note: we previously also had an ambition to generate cumulatively £8.0bn - £9.0bn cash over the period. However, under IFRS 17 we will no longer be producing 'Net release from operations' on which our cash generation metric is based. We have therefore chosen to retire the cash generation ambition from FY 2022.

[34] Note: the Board adopts a formulaic approach to the interim dividend which grows by the same percentage as the total dividend for the prior year.

Neversellshell22, noone gets out right at the top by judgement, only luck. You'll be laughing when it's back in the 24s as it was five trading days ago.

I also sold some today, five ninths of what I was holding. The afternoon jump to a new multiyear high looked too good an opportunity to miss. It's an early bed and ISA for me but can't do the ISA bit until after 5th April. For me it doesn't matter what happens until then because I made the trade and have no regrets but to be back in the 24s or lower in April would suit.

Before selling I think about setting a limit trade for pennies below the price I'm offered so that I can keep increasing it as the price rises and not miss the upside. So today selling at 2595 I was thinking of a sell limit at 2590 but if that had triggered then I'd have missed a better opportunity. In this case though I could have followed the price up into the 26s with my limit order and made a few pennies more, or it might not have triggered at all. However I didn't have the time to do this this afternoon.

Good luck all whatever strategy your playing.

Oops, 1D not !d

Natural Gas price today from 11:00 US time sub $2 to 18:00 at $2.25

Follow this link and click on !d below the chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Trading Economics summary;
US natural gas futures rebounded by 5% to above $2.1/MMBtu, having fallen to as low as $1.968 earlier in the day, the weakest level since September 2020. Investors continued monitoring demand and weather forecasts, with recent projections pointing to colder-than-expected temperatures. Meanwhile, federal regulators approved the partial restart of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, including two liquefaction trains, two tanks, and one loop and dock each. Freeport LNG, when operating at full power, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Natural gas prices have declined more than 45% since the beginning of the year and are now over 80% down from their August peak of $10, as warmer winter kept heating demand subdued and stockpiles well above average.

If the weather forecast doesn't change overnight expect a +ve day for DEC tomorrow. Going exdiv on 2nd March so could be a volatile two weeks.

bobash, have a look at this thread from 8th August.
$1.2 billion (pre-tax) of non-cash hedge valuation losses
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=DEC&share=Diversified-En&thread=C12DCB7C-1CFE-4150-A877-8CCEC100BA42

Thoma Bravo ... reserves the right to make or participate in an offer for Darktrace ... within six months of the date of this announcement:

Statement re Darktrace

Thu, 8th Sep 2022 07:00
RNS Number : 6855Y
Thoma Bravo LLC
08 September 2022

Statement Regarding Darktrace plc ("Darktrace")

Further to the announcement made by Darktrace in relation to a possible offer for Darktrace by Thoma Bravo, L.P. ("Thoma Bravo"), Thoma Bravo confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for Darktrace under Rule 2.7 of the Code.

For the purpose of Rule 2.8 of the Code, Thoma Bravo, and any person(s) acting in concert with it, reserves the right to make or participate in an offer for Darktrace (and/or take any other action which would otherwise be restricted under Rule 2.8 of the Code) within six months of the date of this announcement:

a) with the agreement of the board of Darktrace;

b) following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for Darktrace by or on behalf of a third party;

c) following the announcement by Darktrace of a Rule 9 waiver (as referred to in Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9 of the Code) or for a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); ord) where the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers has determined that there has been a material change of circumstances.