Member Info for Spondy

Have I read and interpreted this correctly?

That the price of shares in the Retail Offer will be determined by the book build in Australia which closes before UK markets open on Monday.

Sailors overhead danger when others go supersonic. (4).

H, it wouldn't be inappropriate now. Can we have just one for old times sake? Please?

B two blanks M.

Oh, and I definitely wouldn't want to be out of this one for the weekend!

Bamps, I don't know why you bother. I've come in at the end of this today and seen your latest post. I'm not going to read the earlier posts.

Didn't you quit here once before and go to the other site? I've not seen posts from you on there lately, it's relatively quiet over there and as far as I know you didn't get any abuse. Did you decide to leave that site?

Being held at 14.6p doesn't follow the supply and demand of a market establishing a price. Therefore someone gets a bargain.

Over the last 24 hours I've become more convinced that the SP is being held back at 14.6p and that his will be the case until the close of the Retail Offer on Monday 16th June 17:30 or earlier. I don't see that it's going to move any higher before the ASX listing. Whoever is controlling this wan'ts the aussies to get more bang for their buck rather than see the share price rise into the listing.

On that basis I'm increasing the amount I've allocated to the Retail Offer and expecting the offer price to be set just below the five trading day average price leading up to the close of trading on 16th June.

I'm also considering selling and adding to the Retail Offer my holding of debt laden BT shares with their ongoing pension fund liability which operating in a competitive tech sector which would see the CMA involved in a major corporate change. I expect over the short to medium term on a total return basis that GGP will be better than BT.

Is 14.61 at close a breakout? LOL

@TomE, I'm looking at closing prices, not intraday.

The point is I currently don't have a view on the current SP and the eventual retail offer price.

Today is the fourth time in 6 weeks that the SP has hit the 14.6p ceiling.

Crystal ball time: is the SP going to break through this before the retail offer closes, stay where it is or drop back to the 13s or 12s?

Buying on market vs the retail offer: could be better to buy on market now as if the ceiling is broken and remains higher at the end of the retail offer period then the offer shares might be priced higher than the market today. This has probably been discussed already but I don't know either way. Opinions welcome.

Hi Giraffe and thanks for posting. It interesting to see my post from Dec 2023 and "if the SP hits ~AUD2.5". The SP made a new high of 3.72 yesterday with gold at about USD 3300.

I was right to be wary of the Sudan and we'll see what happens in Tanzania where at the moment there seems to be some optimism.

I'm still looking for a take over by a company listed on an exchange that my broker engages with or a cash offer. Is the current price of gold and it being on a rising trend conducive to sector M&A activity?

@meoryou, on the BP Share News tab Reuters updated the article at 08:36. Swap Egypt for United Kingdom and the story is still plausible until the last paragraph.

Egypt has been struggling with a decline in natural gas output and in September 2024 its domestic supplies fell to a seven-year low.

The decline has turned the country back into being a net importer, buying dozens of cargoes, but it has been in talks with international oil and gas companies to increase their investments to offset the natural decline.

"The focus of the Raven Infills project has been to fight natural decline and increase production while maximizing our existing infrastructure to meet Egypt’s domestic market demand at pace," Nader Zaki, BP Regional President for the Middle East and North Africa, said.

@NalaKapala1, I don't think you can rely on those buy and sell numbers for anything other than a total number traded, maybe.

On the 7p question, have you seen The Oak Bloke's analysis from 22 Jan? It's covered in a 26 minute video on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/live/LuoKdZ88ATs?feature=shared

I'd be interested to know your opinions.

@Pip56 Thank you for your reply, it's much appreciated. I now have a copy of the Capital Markets Day presentation from November 2024.

With Big Rock energised, hopefully it won't be long before it is 'Placed In Service' and generates the investment tax credit. Similarly for Dogfish which is expected to be energised in February. If the ITCs can be sold before the ex-div date in June of the 4th/final dividend, expected to be 4p, then the shares at today's price are yielding about 15%. If the final dividend is declared as 4p then the SP would be expected to rerate upwards from here.

I bought into GSF in May last year, doubled my holding in October and added again today. I'm optimistic that all dividends will be paid as expected i.e. 1,1,1,4 for FY25 and 750MW+ should provide for 7p or more in FY26.

I'm aware that of the SP decline from 120s since Sept 2022. Buying today feels like catching a falling knife. Time will tell.

Help with answers to the questions below will be appreciated?

This is from the GSF RNS 'Improved GB Revenue and Successful Energisation of Big Rock (200 MW/400 MWh US Asset)' dated 21 Jan 2025.

"The Big Rock project is expected to receive an investment tax credit (ITC) of up to 30% of qualifying capital expenditures under the Inflation Reduction Act. The Investment Manager is currently engaging with several counterparties to monetise these credits alongside those available for the Dogfish project. The pricing for these ITCs, based on numerous term sheets received, have remained in line with expectations and previous guidance to-date, signifying market confidence in these tax credits."

GSF shares are trading around a mid price of 48p. There is speculation/doubt as to whether the ITC for Big Rock will be received. That we are three days in to the new presidency and they haven't been cut suggests doing so was not part of the first week planned cuts.

1. When is the Big Rock ITC expected to be available to trade? Is it expected within a certain timeframe such as tax year or date from energisation or date from being operational?

2. Similar questions for the Dogfish (Target Energisation - February 2025) ITC?

3. Would the Mineral Wells site in Texas (Site Type - Greenfield) have been or is it still expected to receive an ITC post construction/energisation/operation? Does the ITC determine the viability of the project?

4. The share price suggests that if the ITCs are not received then this financial years dividends may be cut. Will the revenue and profit for the following year 2025/26 and future years cover the dividends of 7% NAV?

@ICB888 I've been looking at the 90-day option because I didn't know about it. It would appear the timer starts on the release of the DFS. The question in my mind now is how long does it take to decide to mine or not following the OPFS.

These two paragraphs are from noncontiguous sections of todays RNS Kasiya - Optimised PFS Results

Rio Tinto's option over operatorship and 40% marketing rights lapse if not exercised by the earlier of (i) 90 days after the Company announces its DFS results or 180 days after the announcement of the DFS if Rio Tinto's advises it needs additional time to consider the exercise of its option to become operator or (ii) Rio Tinto ceasing to hold voting power in the Company of at least 10%.

The Company has an uncomplicated, clean corporate and capital structure, is debt free and is in a strong financial position, with approximately A$34 million cash on hand (31 December 2024(unaudited)). The current financial position means the Company is soundly funded to continue into a DFS phase to further develop and de-risk the Project.

This explanation of DFS is from Stockhead

https://s t o c k h e a d.com.au/primers/your-guide-to-mining-feasibility-studies/

THE DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY (DFS)

The question ‘To mine or not to mine?’ is resolved at this stage.

By now all processing parameters have been through detailed and accurate metallurgical test-work has occurred.

While inevitably some will be assumed, these are usually realistic because they are dependant on all mining, processing and other considerations taken at and before this point.

I've 'voted against all' of the Saba resolutions. I'd like to keep Baillie Gifford as managers.

BOARD RECOMMENDATION

WE BELIEVE THAT THE BEST OUTCOME FOR SHAREHOLDERS AS A WHOLE IS TO VOTE AGAINST ALL THE REQUISITIONED RESOLUTIONS.

EVERY VOTE WILL COUNT AND YOUR VOTE IS IMPORTANT.

THE DEADLINE FOR PROXY VOTING CLOSES AT 12.00 NOON ON 30 JANUARY 2025.

DEADLINES FOR VOTING THROUGH PLATFORMS MAY BE EARLIER.

Maybe your broker can buy and sell from more than one market maker and they were just offering you the best prices they had access to at the time.

10th Jan 2024 GSF RNS a Q3 trading update so expectation is for one imminently.

I saw the GRID RNS and was going to post then saw this topic so replying instead. The detailed and significant part describes 'Improving dispatch rates of batteries in the NESO control room'. I wait to hear the benefits to GSF of this but the NESO control room procedure has previously been highlighted as in need reform to better compliment and benefit the BESS providers.

That's great. Thank you.

Playing it through now.

I've subscribed for the newsletter as well.

@howezap Would you be able to share a link to the hour long interview?

Thanks in advance, Spondy.