RE: Market correction?22 Jan 2021 23:58
We don't usually discuss macro. It's a pity because I really believe boo is positioned pretty well for the big trends. My core assumption is shopping moves online, big players take most, asset inflation (stock market melt up), risk asset multiples blow out further due to sustained low rates and at some point we get inflation in the real economy that cannot be hidden via immigration or cheap labour in developing countries. Boohoo is a price maker, not a price taker and will do well if the above assumptions play out.
In response to below, the debts being accrued by governments will be inflated away. Same goes for baby boomer entitlements and pensions. So, yes you will get your state pension in nominal pounds but it will not buy you as much. Inflation will lower living standards without causing people to resort to pitch forks.
Raising interest rates materially is a fantasy and could only happen with a debt jubilee.
"The bottom line is that many millions are being given money, without being productive. This will have to be paid somehow. If it's not paid back, well, we're looking at something much bigger here: MMT, UBI, massive inflation."
Whether we agree or disagree with mmt is irrelevant, it is going to become a theme in the US very soon and you need to invest accordingly. The first 2-5 years of mmt may be growth like we have never seen before, them the resource misallocation will slowly destroy the US economy. The bank of Japan buys Japanese stocks. Federal reserve could do this eventually as well.
"Although just as many seem to be suggesting deflation."
The USD / GBP increase in value against other assets? I just don't see that is possible given debt levels and Janet Yellen.
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