Member Info for Splice

Yeah turning off the website and internet will encourage staff to mine more uranium without distraction

Big if true, 23% of world uranium production is kazatomprom. Kazhakstan is 43% of global production.

https://news.obozrevatel.com/abroad/tokaev-sdal-kazahstan-rossii-kak-otreagiruyut-kazahskie-klanyi/amp.htm

The article claims:

"At the moment, the CSTO “peacekeepers” in Kazakhstan control:

98th Airborne Division of the Russian Federation:

Nur-Sultan airport

General Staff building

Telecentre

45th Brigade of the RF Airborne Forces:

Almaty airport

Air Defense Headquarters

Nur-Sultan

31 brigade of the RF Airborne Forces:

Ust-Kamenogorsk

Kazatomprom

TsSN Senezh

Presidential Palace Nur-Sultan"

https://news.obozrevatel.com/abroad/tokaev-sdal-kazahstan-rossii-kak-otreagiruyut-kazahskie-klanyi/amp.htm

The article claims:

"At the moment, the CSTO “peacekeepers” in Kazakhstan control:

98th Airborne Division of the Russian Federation:

Nur-Sultan airport

General Staff building

Telecentre

45th Brigade of the RF Airborne Forces:

Almaty airport

Air Defense Headquarters

Nur-Sultan

31 brigade of the RF Airborne Forces:

Ust-Kamenogorsk

Kazatomprom

TsSN Senezh

Presidential Palace Nur-Sultan"

Hx - But why all the guns and tanks?

Others on Twitter are saying Russian troops are protecting kazhakstan energy and Uranian assets. Not sure what's true at the moment but Russia will potentially control kazhakstan's 43% of global production plus Russia's 8% of final production. The final piece of the puzzle is if Putin invades Ukraine and gets sanctioned he could deny the west 51% of global uranium production and sell it to China (China and kazhakstan are building a 60m pound storage facility on the Chinese/kazhakstan border). The world is already operating at a deficit, this will send uranium spot result above the inflation adjusted peak price in the last boom (180 USD by my calculation). If Russia invades Ukraine, USD 200+ uranium easily.

Continued:
"The nature of ISR productions means they can probably maintain production with reduced manpower for now, but we'll see delayed prod decrease as well field development suffer. Just like we with the COVID interruptions last year.
With uncertainty over 43% of world supply, in a market already in a structural deficit, combined with the fact that SPUT is armed to the teeth, I think we're about to see something weird go down with uranium equities and the spot market."
https://twitter.com/stianflage/status/1478967404856156160

That is from Twitter, not my words

The situation for Kazatomprom is not looking good. I find it difficult to see how they maintain production at normal levels.

"
Stian Flage
@stianflage
I think we're past the point where Kazatomprom can maintain normal activities. Internet is down. The Central Bank just suspended all banking activities. There's machinegun fire in the streets. Russian troops are incoming. These workers have families to take care for.

https://twitter.com/stianflage/status/1478967404856156160

Snooz - Cameco hold very little inventory (this is their lean strategy). They fulfil multi year supply contracts with uranium bought at spot and also mined. They need to buy from spot to fulfil their spot contacts. This carry trade is great when the spot probably CE is low but disasterous when the spot price is higher than the contracted price. Based on what I have seen of Cameco, they just want a stable low spot price so they can carry on their carry trade. A higher spot price is actually bad for them based on what I have read.

I'm considering someing similar. Anyone know when the court case is due to conclude?

Wg is up 6.46% as well. These are a very comfortable holds for the next 6 months. Pfc will see £3 sooner than people think

This will grind higher. The only thing that breaks my thesis here is if i think capex for oil and gas will not grow in coming years or there is some reason pfc can't participate in the Middle East. This is not the case right now, we are basically playing catch-up with almost two years of under investment and the ME market will be opening up

I miss him, he reminded me of the Iraqi Information Minister during the second Iraq war

I have no problems pulling the trigger and selling when my thesis has played out (or didn't). Everyone has different time horizons, I am holding for at least the next inflection point. I suspect this is going to be pfc gaining the ability to bid in the UAE/Saudi and a large contract win (1b+). The backdrop to all this will be rising oil prices and this will grind the whole sector higher. Feeling very comfortable waiting mid term, I can see a 2x from here.

In the old days I remember seeing estimates of 700m. That was for bribery / money laundering etc though. As soon as the actual charge was known here the cat was out of the bag. Unbelievably good outcome here today the rerate hasn't even started

Apparently his other posts were about Debenhams. If he was long Debenhams and short pfc he's had a terrible year

Who are the suitors?

1. News pfc can bid for tenders in UAE
2. News of large tender win 1b+
3. Market wakes up to the amount of money that is going to be spent in the coming years on energy

There is a wall of capex coming for energy projects, including renewables

Branson I really enjoy your trading blog, don't listen to them

I've been away for almost a year. I come back and nothing has changed. Looks like danl is leaving the board for the 11th time. I'm thinking of buying back in, this move down looks over done