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First the hope then the cope. I hope for your sake the Russian assets are only 30%, I've seen other estimates.

Bonds are 30 cents on the dollar in Frankfurt. If the bondholders are expecting a 30% wipeout, what happens to the equity? I think you already know the answer.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1843443273-evraz-plc-5-25-19-24

This isn't even a troll post.

Here are some facts:
1. Abramovich is sanctioned in the UK
2. Abramovich cannot sell his UK shares in Evraz legally
3. The majority of evraz's assets are in Russia
4. Abramovich is known to have a good relationship with the current Russian regime.

Based on the above, I can see a scenario where the Russian assets are somehow given to Abramovich and the 3 other oligarchs with major holdings. This may be done via a Russian court. Small holders of evraz end up with the non-russian assets and the debt (an equity wipe out).

Abromovich is extremely intelligent and the assets are in an unfriendly jurisdiction where he is connected. If you don't think there is a chance he makes a play to get personal control of those assets you are kidding yourself.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/u-s-weighs-sanctions-on-russian-nuclear-power-supplier-rosatom

Spot #uranium 5800/5900 USc/Lb #U3O8 (Delivery at ALL , Chg +563c, +9.62%)

https://twitter.com/numerco/status/1501679324835029007?s=20&t=2qMF0aU4pctriqvQkKm23w

But... they cancelled the...

*BREATHES IN*

... they cancelled the dividend!

They need to start buying back bonds at 50% off immediately

It's literally still trading right now on the us exchanges at 1.33 USD or 1.01 GBP.

It makes no difference what they say, this is a binary play based on politics and fundamentals

It's trading it 0.50 p/e who cares

Mattboy - blueburg a high effort sophisticated troll

Two events there you have outlined
1. Russia starts demanding payment for energy in gold.
2. As a consequence, all countries nationalise gold producers

When I apply odds to 1 and 2, the odds of this happening look like a tail risk. Is this the scenario you are trading against?

Some Russian gold refiners have been suspended from the LBMA good delivery list today. Make of this what you will.

https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/good-delivery-list-update-gold-silver-russian-refiners-suspended

MARCH 07, 2022

In light of UK/EU/US sanctions and to ensure an orderly market, LBMA has suspended the following gold and silver refiners with immediate effect:

JSC Krastsvetmet (gold and silver)?
JSC Novosibirsk Refinery (gold and silver)?
JSC Uralelectromed (gold and silver)?
Moscow Special Alloys Processing Plant (gold)??
Prioksky Plant of Non-Ferrous Metals (gold and silver)?
Shyolkovsky Factory of Secondary Precious Metals, SOE (gold and silver)
These six refiners will no longer be accepted as Good Delivery by the London Bullion market until further notice.

I suspect a lot of people would do the same. Unfortunately we don't know the mind of the people making the decision on this dividend. Abramovich is certainly brilliant. I just hope his interests are aligned to shareholders.

Paying down the debt would essentially guarantee an ongoing dividend because they wouldn't have to pay the coupon and importantly they wouldn't have to worry about refinancing in 2024. There is no guarantee that tastes will be low in 2024. A move like this could make this share a dividend machine if the right macro scenario plays out. Share buybacks would be great as well and would also be preferable to dividends.

HeresHopin - yes Goldman and JP Morgan are trying to buy them now. Even in the worst case of nationalisation and bankruptcy of the remaining assets they will still be made whole. Abramovich is probably already working on this, he is to smart to miss this chance to virtually wipe out the companies debt. The rubble denominated debt is about 200m USD or something and should be left alone to devalue on it's own

Eviking - you need to buy them through Frankfurt I think.

Evraz should be negotiating directly with the bondholders to buy anything they will sell at discounts.

The dividend is the worst long term move they can make in my opinion

These are the evraz books in talking about:
Evraz PLC 5,25% 19/24 USD
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1843443273-evraz-plc-5-25-19-24

They trade at 50 cents on the dollar. There is unlikely to be a better move right now for shareholders than buying these back with the dividend money.

Has anyone seen any news about evraz doing something more strategic with the dividend payment than just giving it to shareholders? They should cancel the dividend and use it to buy back their euro bonds (50% discount) or buyback shares (90% discount) or look for firesale acquisitions. In my mind paying that dividend is not the best use of capital. I hope the two people who basically control this company come to this conclusion as well.

If you believe Abramovich is selling and wants out you must also believe the dividend will get paid. The decision is made by Abramovich and Abramov with little input technically required from anyone else. I can't see a situation where Abramovich wants his money out of the company but doesn't want to pay himself a dividend.

Absolute carnage. Sanctions, ddos on website, possible delisting, possible insolvency. But for the faint of heart.

I'm more interested in seeing where USD spot goes from here. 180 was my target based on previous inflation adjusted bull market highs but this setup is unbelievably good and may be higher.