Member Info for Spikeyj

25-Oct-19 Liberum Capital Buy - 8,250.00 Upgrade
24-Oct-19 Liberum Capital Hold - 6,400.00 Reiteration

Lol.

hi carter. there is no need to offer the BoD any advice.

the BoD of Mxo/Adme have done just fine for years,
without having to pay any attention to whatsoever
shareholders or others might prefer the company
to do. & so the BoD has made very good money for
themselves, year in, year out. stefan has gone, but
andy is still around for sure, and as yet there is no
special reason to think that OO will be any different.

thanks putney.
good luck here.

if this heads towards administration, is it correct
that ali holds chunky enough preferred or senior
debt that he can just pick up the whole caboodle?
- how much of the company's debt does ali hold?

regarding splits such as this very recent one,
and presumably also GSK's, there is usually a
pricing effect reflecting the risk that 'something'
might go wrong from an implementation and/or
regulatory perspective, right up to the final point
when a split is fully and formally confirmed. (obv,
one would hope that such risks are being dealt
with progressively as a split is being planned,
but always doubts until final ink has dried!) that
is one reason for the very recent fillip here, imv.

(? presumably also some degree of 'relief' very
recently that no-deal brexit risk appears to have
reduced significantly, which should have helped
with the perceived prospects of the MNG part?)

for balance, i *do* think it is undeniably good news
for ADME that panoro were able to finally offload
their percentage of aje for a meaningful cash sum.

i think the best bet for ADME would be to flog their
own aje percentage for cash as soon as they can, &
then stick to onshore/shallow water assets which
do not tie them into the huge & long-term funding
demands which come with big deep water projects.

it is indeed true that the current CEO of ADME has
some previous industry experience relevant to aje.
sensible punters should check out what that is, and
how well his shareholders & creditors did previously.

e.g. he has been already been a director of two other
companies involved with west african/nigerian oil and
gas. sadly, they both went into liquidation. (still, with
that experience under his belt, maybe third time lucky?)

those two companies are:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05308516
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05216866

slowlyslowly: "We've recently had a placing at a premium of 20-30% of current sp. That's 2-3 entities willing to invest here, but who think it worth paying more than they would on the open market in order to give the company the capital it needs to progress its plans."

it is odd that slowlyslowly appears to believe that 2-3 entities altruistically
paid more than they would on the open market in order to give this company
capital ... it's almost as though he forgets the free warrants those placees got.
but nobody buying on the open market gets those valuable freebies, do they?

meanwhile, it seems that placing remains incomplete.
imv, sensible punters should ask why that might be. (one
poster here previously claimed it was because the missing
money was coming from "offshore"; afloat in a corked bottle?)

slowlyslowly: "Panoro has just sold its share of Aje to Petronor, for a total consideration of $35m."

a tad misleading, imo. they have sold it for $10million, a much smaller sum,
but with the *possibility* for panoro to receive bonus payments that *could*
be up to a *maximum* of $25 million starting from an *unspecified number of
years in the future*, i.e. after the gas development plan has been agreed, and
then funded, and then carried out, and then also after petronor/pan aje has
been paid back *all* the investment cash it will have to put in to get the gas.

(many a slip twixt cup and lip possible on that one!)

the existing oil wells have a few more lifts in them, circa 6 more from
this point unless flow rates etc. change dramatically. so they will
need to drill more oil wells to keep some revenue coming in. where
will the cash come from to do that? - ah, fortunately, the shareholders
of this company have given permission for the ADME board to issue a
truly massive amount of new shares, up to 300% additional dilution.

so might be worth seeing at what point the new CEO chooses to put
in significant cash of his own to buy shares here (rather than freebie
share awards/warrants etc.), if considering whether /when to buy.

if the CEO is in the middle of negotiating lots of lovely deals, then he
is probably not free to buy now. but such lovely deals would need to
be paid for somehow, so plenty of new shares to be issued first, imv.

dan, or you would be wanting to encourage
great volume and back and forth churn in
trading here, since peel are making very
good money off the whopping spread here.

obone, 8p is just the exercise price of the warrants,
it does not tell you the value of the freebie warrants.

what i mean is, if a placee paid 7 pence to buy a
placing share, they also received a 'free' gift of 1.25
warrants alongside that placing share. so if you want
to see what they were willing to pay for their ADME shares,
you need to think about what that 'free' gift was worth.

so you need to figure out, how much would be a fair
price at which someone would sell or buy a warrant
with an exercise price of 8p, with an expiry date two
years from date of issue, but which can't be exercised
for the first six months? - i.e. what would be your price
if someone asked you to make them a market in
warrants with an 8p strike price & those conditions.

so if you think a fair value for a warrant like that
would be 1.6 pence, then someone who buys a
placing share at 7p also gets (1.25 x 1.6 pence) worth
of warrant freebie = 2p worth of freebie warrant.
hence, effective buy into ADME at 5p. if you think a
fair price for a 2 year 8p warrant is 1.2p, then placee
gets (1.25 x 1.2 pence) of freebies = 1.5p, making an
effective ADME price of 5.5p. if you think a fair price
for a 2 year 8p warrant is 2p, then placee gets (1.25 x
2 pence) worth of freebies = 2.5p, making their price
for getting into ADME shares effectively about 4.5 p.

obone, how much do *you* think would be a fair value to place
on a warrant to buy ADME shares at 8p, valid for up to two years?

"... SINCE THEN WE HAVE HAD A PLACING AT 7P!!!"

a placing that ADME have still not managed to
complete, where placees who did pay 7p also
got given 1.25 warrants with exercise price of 8p
as a sweetener. that makes the effective buy-in
price for those placees more like 5p ( - depending
on the value one would attribute to the warrants.)

anyone who just buys at 7p in the market now does not get any
free warrants, hence would be getting a much worse deal than
those placees, some of whom still haven't paid up themselves.

whetstone is now two months overdue to file its confirmation statement.

companies house site shows that whetstone has now had a 'first
gazette' notice for the company to be struck off. wonder what is
so tricky about getting that confirmation statement published?
perhaps just because they are busy with those many, many deals.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10905791

"I wonder if this deal is what made the Sheikh leave ADME, there was a lot on here who said him and his rich friends would fund / part fund phase 2 so maybe he wanted the operational side of AJE"

interesting point dan, thanks for that idea.

mad chatter's prediction of placing completion
RNS yesterday didn't come off. maybe today?
... amazing just how slow that 'offshore' post is...
adme still struggling to complete the placing, imo.

i wonder if anyone has looked to see what value
the aje asset is already on the ADME books for,
& how that compares with the implied value for
ADME's 5% from panoro's 12% selling for $10m?

there is of course that scope for panoro to receive
additional money up to a maximum of $25m. it
is worth noting that is the *maximum*, not a sum
which they are guaranteed to receive. but more
importantly, by far, anyone care to guess what
year it might be before pan aje have recovered
all costs? (clue: a long, long, way ahead, if they
ever do manage to fund a development plan.)

no plan & no funding for gas development in place yet,
so it's a teensy weensy bit premature to count it done.

as a main operator, pan aje would be booking revenues
for such work to help sustain them. - where will adme
come up with its share of the gas development costs,
and how will it stay afloat in the lengthy gap between
any gas production & the existing oil wells running dry?

"Once Pan Aje has recovered ***all costs related to the accumulated investments incurred after the date of completion****, PetroNor must pay to Panoro additional consideration of US$ 0.15 per 1,000 cubic feet of the Aje Natural Gas Sales Volume, such additional consideration being capped at US$ 25 million" [asterisks added]

huge effort underway by twitter bunch etc to
spike fresh meat here. honest folks be wary.

"I'm rather surprised that the authorities are not making some effort to enquire into/ unravel some of this."

they are.

"They will not get more than US$500k for all of Austin, Zink and Ft Worth Field. This company should basically be valued as a shell. No one in the US asset market will pay more than PDP for these assets."

but what about that evil plot which helpful & orslega warned about,
with those sinister unnamed forces trying to buy AOGL's assets "on
the cheap". how cheap exactly was "on the cheap" meant to be??

"I am happy with where we are up to"

... detached from the sp reality, as ever.
(but then, i don't think helpful's motivation
derives from AOGL's ordinary share price.)

"the CPR/reserves report is not a hard and fast thing"

lol, especially not with a company like this one!

(dan, don't forget the money
still owed by adme for grenada.)

so will panoro deal persuade those hesitant placees to
finally pay up? the previous RNS said, by end of october,
so should be another RNS about this in next week or so.

"Everyone knew he was part of the company in Liquidation when he was appointed"

yes, i was surprised that morningsun didn't seem to be aware of EER (Norway) Ltd.

imv, the last thing ADME needs is to buy yet another chunk of AJE, given
the huge spending commitments for longer term development that come
with ownership of an aje %age -- for companies without cash, obligation
to keep finding development money for the field is a real albatross.

far better if they could somehow persuade someone with an asset that
costs less to develop, & quicker, to accept ADME paper for a slice. jmv.

[not been checking in much - connections erratic here.]

important to check carefully on companies house regarding
*two different companies* called EER. one is just called EER
Ltd, and that one went into liquidation after it failed to comply
with all its CVA obligations. - okhomina was associated with
that company, but according to companies house he resigned
as secretary in 2013, then resigned as a director in 2015. a few
months after that in september 2015 the CVA came into effect.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05308516/filing-history

but as you can see from the CVA announcement of 3rd september 2015
on companies house website, the biggest creditor for EER Ltd was a
company with a similar name, called EER (Norway) Ltd. okhomina is
*still* listed on companies house as an active director for EER (Norway)
Ltd, so presumably when ADME RNS announced on his appointment
that he is the vice-chair of EER, they were meaning EER (Norway) Ltd?

however, if you look up EER (Norway) Ltd on companies house:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/05216866

- you can see that a winding up order was issued in march 2019,
with a liquidator appointed in april 2019, accounts still overdue,
but okhomina *is* still listed as an active director for EER (Norway).

summarising, okhomina was associated with two companies
called EER, still is with one. both of them went into liquidation.
(me, not convinced that track record should inspire confidence.)

still no news about the missing placement money? .... presumably
okhomina is 'inside' re information about any deals currently being
negotiated, but he would also be 'inside' re what is / isn't happening
re that money they originally said should have come in by 4th oct.
(plus, whatever under negotiation regarding more aje development.)

[off in search of shade again. phew.]