Member Info for Spikeyj

on the plus side, they do have scope to buy asset options
with paper, since they managed to persuade shareholders
to give them scope to dilute by up to another 300% (!!) of the
existing share issuance, so the confetti machine stands ready.

? if someone out there has a high quality west african oil
and gas asset that is already generating cash & profit, or
can do so soon with minimal additional outlay, is it likely that
they would want to sell such an asset for a bunch of paper in
a small, struggling, AIM listed micro-cap, or would such a
seller prefer cold hard cash? - on the other hand, sellers of
assets that are not so great might be willing to take paper.

so could be an exciting week coming for ADME!
good luck all honest folks. sadly for me, i will be in
relative incommunicado in south saudi for a while.

so, hands up anyone who wants to help peel unload,
& to help all those placees make chunky money on
all their millions of 4p and 8p warrants? - get your
wallets open ready to buy-buy-buy shares, once they
release an RNS or two announcing some deals to option
assets that they will imo declare have amazing 'potential'
to generate positive cash flow, once proved up & developed.

given that they will be paying for those asset options either
by issuing yet more adme paper, or else by dipping into their
current cash pot of less than £1m, it's pretty unlikely imv that
they are about to purchase anything that is already generating
a meaningful positive cash flow. but nonetheless, they may
well have some exciting RNSs coming with attempted sizzle.

(sometimes, it's better not to ask what's inside the sausage...)

as and when such RNSs come out, an interesting question
is which groups of current holders and placees are waiting
for which price levels before they dump? - e.g. sheikh can
profit from dumping those 4p warrants well before any of
the shafted primary bid places get anywhere near to even.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-incoming-boss-mulls-cleaner-future-bps-strength-gives/

to be fair, that was
quite fun today.

i don't believe that dougal has been a company shill.
if anyone had bothered to read all his posts here over
time, it surely wouldn't have made them more likely
to invest in this farrago, would it??? nor would his
chatter have made the slightest difference to anyone
who was thinking of litigation, imv. (meanwhile, a little
tricky to see how the multi-IDs could spin more stories
about evil shorters, bearing in mind that the cayman
company has been slotted - if there were any remaining
shorts, there is no ctag left to give them any liability.

"similar action" meaning, not trying to
present aje as a real company-maker, &
instead focusing on other investments?

(that's what panoro has done. adme can learn?)

take a look at how RDSB, GSK and Astra also moved, all a bit down
on a day when loads of UK focused stocks have put on a spurt. so i
think some of the BP sp is about RNS, but some of it also probably
just reflection of some money switching into 'cheap' UK stocks, out
of the some of those 'safer' dollar earners / pharmaceuticals. let's
see whether bozza can manage to find a deal he can say is a win...?

dougal, you do understand that peeps
can read your past posts, don't you?

e.g. dougal66, 22.7.19

"RE: One of the things...22 Jul 2019 14:42
Spikey. Total blind faith BCT & DHP.
Amit( FCA authorised and regulated) then went onto raise c400k 24 August 2018. Now that really caught my attention.
As an existing investor I subscribed pre IPO. Other than that it is none of your business."

so after all this time & all his posts, is dougal now
claiming that he sold out of CTAG, and didn't put
in extra money into that weird pre-IPO thang?!

both hilarious and sad.

InvestingGenius: "As for cash burn their costs have reduced massively down to just £849k and they will be profitable in 2020, which means every month that figure is getting less and less."

that makes no sense. adme do not have positive cash flow
at present, because the revenue they get from the oil lifts
just goes towards paying off debt at the project level. the
company has said that it hopes to become cash flow +ve
in H1 2020, i.e. once they've paid off their share of that debt.
(note, the company has **not** claimed it will be 'profitable'
then, just that they hope to be 'cash flow positive', different!)

but none of the above means that their 'admin costs' are
getting smaller, month by month - i.e. just because they are
paying off project level debt does *not* mean that they are
paying any less each month on stuff like the huge BoD wages,
keeping the lights on, getting paperclips replaced,etc etc.

secondly, the half-year report stated that admin
expenses were reduced to £511,000 over the
six month period reported on. that is about
£85K per month cash burn, month on month.
(curiously, IG mentions a figure instead of £849K ...)

third issue in IG's post re cash position,
IG figures don't take into account that the
cash raised from placings etc was reported
as gross figures, not *net* proceeds. so in
working out what cash ADME actually got,
it is necessary to deduct from the gross sum
the likely costs of organising the placements.

(it looks like dan and i have some similar-ish
views regarding the cash position, but we differ in
that dan thinks placing costs are lower than i do.
dan's figures also look slightly different as he
is forecasting that they will bring in the rest of
the conditional placing money. i do accept that
is possible, but my figures were simply about the
money already collected and cash position now,
rather than forecasting out to end of december.)

it is odd that some optimistic posters seem to think
that ADME's cash position *is* relevant when they post
their own views that the company has more than £1mill,
but then think cash position isn't that relevant when
the reality of a lower cash position is pointed out.

to be sure, if the CEO manages to pay a small sum to
buy a magic money tree asset that immediately brings
in lots of positive cash flow, for only a small outlay, then
the company's cash position will indeed look lots better.
... i'm not that convinced that is what is going to happen.

"We know ADME have over £m cash in bank"

nope, more like £650K cash currently imv,
as per previous post using RNS figures re
cash balance end june & ongoing cash burn.

there has already been news, news about the revenues
being so much worse than people thought that the
company had previously been indicating. that's a big
part of what people are trying to discuss, with the usual
rampers keeping remarkably quiet about that news.

it is also 'news' of a sort, i.e. certainly information that is
worth attending to. that the CPR has still not been released.
the continuing absence of a CPR RNS is news in its own right.

chatter about PQE misses the question over company's core assets.

market making is a risk business. market makers don't win all the
time, they just need to win 60%+ of their attempted positions, to
make it worthwhile. if they lose 40, win 60, over & over, in decent
volume, that's a perfectly good business. one snag peel face at
present is the minimal liquidity, when peel hold a large stake that
is known to the public. there isn't enough active volume in the
market currently for peel to be able to unwind that position even
if they do want to, without cratering the share price. just imagine
what would happen if they managed to sell down a few % of their
shareholding over a couple of days, but then had to RNS change
in their holding while still holding >10% of the company. oops.

so although they can anchor the bid and ask fairly effectively
with little newsflow & low volume, they can't drum up trading
volume out of nowhere. so if they are wanting to unwind the
position, they have to wait until something stirs the market
into life and raises the volumes, e.g. some RNSs about 'deals'.

peeps post a range of ideas about how
much cash adme currently has to invest.

investingenius said £1.3 million.
danbrown83 suggests $1million.
me, i've suggested nearer £650,000.

(i've shown the basis for my cash estimate,
linking that with numbers from the RNSs.
- others haven't shown their workings.)

but agree with dan, such amounts buy
one very little. and with each month
that passes, they keep burning £85K.

to survive, they will need to issue a news
release about optioning something, then
hope they can use that to issue more shares.
the interesting question is, at what price,
& with how many more warrants attached?

"... do you know what their plans are to develop the oil and gas at oml 113 with the other partners ?"

nope, & i don't think adme and their partners know either.
(take a look at the panoro investor presentations. nothing
at all about anything they plan to do in 2020 to develop it.)

what is clear, though, is all deep water stuff will be costly.

no idea what other african assets CEO has in mind;
makes this a bit of a lucky (?) dip company really,
anyone investing in this one is taking a wild punt.

and wild punts in the world of AIM resource focused
micro-caps do occasionally come good. but often not.

no offence meant, mcadder, but i'm not sure you
really understand what you have bought into. gl.

two different issues, (a) how much oil may be left in the field as a whole,
versus (b) how much oil the two existing wells should be able to extract.

drilling more wells would allow them to pump out more of those
recoverable reserves, but drilling new wells will cost plenty of cash.

as danbrown has previously posted:
"The two current wells run dry end of 2021, the current wells are at full capacity and production is slowing at a nominal rate in line with the depletion of reserves"

(as danbrown has previously posted, about 6 more lifts can be expected from the existing wells)

... the other missing element /elephant (in the room)
is where the cash will come from for ADME to meet its
obligations towards further drilling or development
of AJE, if/when partners ever agree what to do next?

clearly, ADME doesn't currently have sufficient cash
balance to pay its share of new deep water drilling
costs etc without issuing more new shares, CLNs, etc.
(& the existing wells run dry after a few more liftings.)

worth taking stock of the likely cash position.
using figures from half-yearly report re H1 2019:

cash burn £85,167 per month. (i.e. £511K / 6).

"cash & cash equivalents" at 30 June 2019 was £84,000

since 30th june, ADME raised £500K gross in august from placing & primary bid offer,
so let’s assume circa £400K net was received. (assuming 20% arrangement fees etc).

after that, ADME attempted to raise £832K gross through placing shares to Zark and ‘others’.

so far, they have collected £269,640 gross from Zark (per 11/9 RNS), & then £283,450 gross from
conditional issuance (per 8/10 RNS). so circa £553K gross, circa £443K net (assuming 20% fees.)

£84K (cash position end june) +
£400K (net proceeds from august placing) +
£443K (net proceeds to date from Zark & ‘others’ at 7p)
= £927,000 cash.

but then have to factor in cash-burn to date since
end june (i.e. 3.25 months times £85,167 monthly
‘admin expenses’) which is approx. £277,000.

*** ? this implies company currently has £650K cash available. ****

that should keep them going until the end of May 2020, assuming -
(a) the admin expenses don’t change much
(b) few if any warrants get exercised
(c) they don’t spend **any** cash at all on investments / ‘options’ on assets
(d) they don’t collect the rest of the conditional issue cash.
(e) whoever they owe that big chunk of grenada money doesn't demand it back.

presumably though, optimists here are expecting that they will get the rest
of the conditional issue away (which would buy them another 2.5 months),
and optimists would also would be expecting that the company is going to
spend some of this money to secure some kind of initial rights to an asset.

[... happy to see corrections if I have typo'd any of the figures, etc...]

not "fully resolved" until they have
actually collected all of the money?