Member Info for Spikeyj

mcadder, what is your evidence that my view of
adme's cash balances is "overly pessimistic"?

i clearly set out how i calculated my estimate, based
on the published RNS data which anyone else can easily
check for themselves. that contrasts with E_AL, who
posted a highly misleading figure for adme's cash balance,
(over-estimating it by about £800,000!) without making any
attempt to show how he had derived his figures. so do explain,
which of the numbers i used do you think is wrong, and why?

E_AL: "Adm Energy has over £1.5m in the bank..."

nope, that is not true. just review the published figures:

cash & cash equivalents as at 30 june 2019 was £84,000.
that is clearly stated in ADME's RNS for half-year results at:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ADME/half-yearly-report-9lhauttr6fwybqk.html

12 aug placing & primarybid offer then raised £500,000 gross,
let's assume they only had to pay 10% expenses, = £450,000 net.

29 aug warrants exercised raising an additional £5,000.

11 september adme raised £269,640 gross from zark
let's assume they only had to pay 10% expenses = £242,676

8th october £283,450 gross raised from conditional subscription
let's assume they only had to pay 10% expenses = £255,105 net.

£84,000 + £450,000 + £5,000 + £242,676 + £255,105 = £1,036,781

that would be the cash balance now if ADME had
*zero* admin costs. however, half-year results stated:
"the Group successfully lowered administrative expenses to £511,000"
so **monthly** admin cash burn is running at £85,167,
i.e. £340,668 cash burn for the four months july- end oct.

that means ADME cash balance at end oct '19
would be: £1,036,781 - £340,668 = £696,112.

[assuming: no major change in the admin expenses
since H1 2019; approx. 10% expenses for the placings;
assuming grenada debt has not been repaid; & also
assuming nothing paid out for any other 'deals' yet.]

[meanwhile, the revenues received from oil sales are still going to
repay project level liabilities for aje, including ongoing operating
expenses, hence not yet adding to adme's own cash balances.]

ap90, you might be a bit high on the current admin expenses?
as according to the adme half-yearly results as per RNS sept 30th:

"the Group successfully lowered administrative expenses to £511,000 (H1 2018: 693,000), a decrease of 26%."

so if they have been able to keep admin expenses down at that
level, that would be a cash burn of more like £85,166 a month.

(tho' one additional unknown, they haven't explained how BoD
wages bill will have changed from stefan leaving, OO coming, etc. )

- the other change i'd suggest to your figures, need to
take into account the fees/costs for their placements,
as you are listing the gross amounts raised, not the net.

dougal66, 31st may 2019:

"hex, we are done. If you are right and Amit has shafted UK investors, I will come back and owe you an unreserved apology. Until then ........"

hope FCA unregistered dougal will provide a
2019 year end apology to hex, as he promised.

investors already know what 2020 holds here.
(hint, british navy boys used it as slang for their
unpalatable rations in the mid 19th century.)

if you look at the last 30 days,
it's actually mcadder who is
the most active on this board.

dismal volumes. no market-makers
are getting fat on the recent trading.

they and everyone else need some more
interesting RNS to pump up the volume.

c'mon, osa, let's see those deals.

mcadder: "conspiracy theories in full flow"

yes, so it seems. spikeyj is my only ID on lse.

ap90, it was not £650,000 paid out by ADME,
it was £650,000 paid in to ADME by someone
else, who presumably hoped ADME was
going to do something for them, but which
ADME did not actually do. - so ADME owes
somebody that money for a job not done.

if that somebody tried to demand repayment
of that debt while ADME still has significant
aje project level debts, ADME would just have
collapsed, imo, so it seems the poor grenada
entity just has to wait until ADME has more cash.

you are very welcome to use the filter
if you don't wish to read my posts, or
to respond to the substantive issues
regarding the company and finances.

(my own comment not so much that £500K is a lot to
put into an AIM share per se, more about % allocation
in relation to rest of someone's portfolio. e.g. if someone
has lifesavings of £50,000,000, then perfectly reasonable
they might want to punt 1% of it on an interesting AIM
stock! but if savings are e.g. £1m, £500K is nuts, imv.)

sure, perhaps, we live in a quantum universe so i suppose
pretty much all things are possible. - but that particular
individual quoted by telegraph doesn't seem to think so.

mcadder, it is not speculation that adme owes
someone £650,000 for grenada work that never
happened and is repayable on demand. that is
a factual matter highlighted in the most recent
set of annual results, and commented on by the
auditors. & it is also not speculation that ADME
said in late september that it is not required to
make capital expenditure **"in the short term"**,
but with adme saying plans are being developed to
do new drilling for an aje phase 2. both those things
were clearly indicated in the RNS of late september.

speculation comes into play wondering where the
money can come from to do those things, as that is
not clear. the auditors indicated in their comments
that adme appeared to think it would be able to
repay the grenada money by issuing more equity,
but adme has not commented in any RNS on that.

given that the company has recently secured agreement
from its shareholders for adme to issue huge amounts of
new shares that would dilute current equity by 300%, one
reasonable guess is that the company hopes to meet some
of these bills by whacking out some sizeable placements. but
sure, i'm happy to accept that is me speculating (half the fun.)

(mind you, i'm not sure what retail appetite would be
for a placing to raise money to pay off an advance for
work that never happened, especially given that the
company never announced or explained what the heck
that grenada work was meant to be in the first place, nor
did they tell shareholders about receiving an advance
of £650,000, until it appeared in those annual results.)

“I will never get my money back, my life savings have gone,” said one, who has £500,000 locked in Koovs shares.

i wonder who that can be? - jambon claimed to have that
kind of size invested in koovs, but then again jambon also
often mentioned how wealthy he was, so presumably for
someone like him a mere £500K wouldn't be their life savings.

whoever it is, very sad indeed to get themself into
that kind of a pickle, but absolutely barking mad
imv to put £500K into one AIM share if that's a big
percentage of someone's total life savings. tragic.

kentan: "...there is still the question of the £820k+ invested in Superdielectrics shares (195,000 at £4.32 per share + costs) at this time last year. As they are unquoted, has their value gone up or down? Should the need arise they could be sold at par or a profit. "

i have no idea at all what superdielectrics is up to, nor what it is worth.
but the wording in kentan's post made me curious, is there any specific
reason shares could not be sold at a loss, rather than "at par or a profit"?

re 12:53, was in/around empty quarter recently, mcadder, but not
sahara, different desert! ... too hot for me, am back in uk, phew.

the half-yearly ADME report of 30th sept 2019 includes:

"The Aje Field, part of OML 113, in which ADM Energy holds a 5% equity investment
· Oil continues to be produced at a broadly stable rate from two wells (Aje-4 and Aje-5) at an average of 3,009 bopd"
&
"· Technical work has largely been concluded to support a decision on Aje Phase 2 development; targeting estimated gross production of 8-12,000 bopd"
&
"Project level operating costs remain as forecast and there is no planned or required capital expenditure anticipated ***in the short term.***"

[*** emphasis added by me.]

two key questions for potential investors to consider are:

(1) so *when* will new capital expenditure be required from
adme in order to help fund that aje phase two development?
sure, not in "the short term" as at 30/9, but when does that end?

(2) *how much* will the partners collectively need to pay for new
capital expenditure on phase 2 drilling, & how much from ADME?

i.e, crucial how long "in the short term" means in the context above.

mcadder, the £650,000 that adme owes for grenada
is not an ancient issue from many years ago that has
long since been written off, nor is it a trivial sum of
money that adme could just meet out of the petty cash
tin. it is £650,000 that is repayable on demand, and big
enough to be cited by the auditors in the most recent
set of audited full-year results available as a potential
'going concern' issue. none of your cut & paste posts
address where & how adme gets the money to repay it.

either adme has already used placing money received
during 2019 to repay some of it (- in which case company
has a lot less cash currently than some posters here seem
to think), or else it is still owing, in which case my guess
is that adme will be asked to pay it back once project level
aje debt has been paid off, from oil sale money. ... nothing
wrong with doing that, of course, but it would significantly
limit cash adme could spend in '20 on other things, such as
new aje oil wells, 'deals', or funding oml gas development.

(unless of course the unspecified guys who advanced
that £650,000 to adme that since decided out of the
goodness of their hearts that adme doesn't ever need
to pay that money back & can keep it for free. unlikely.)

unless of course, chunks of the cash already raised this year
have *already* been used to pay back chunks of that grenada
debt. (if so, adme cash position now would be extremely tight.)

remains a key issue. i've been wondering what will happen
about that grenada debt they owe, which is large relative
to company size and its cash. adme owes £650,000 which is
repayable on demand to somebody (unspecified) for work
which adme had apparently been paid to carry out in
grenada, but which is not actually going ahead (reasons
unspecified). all that is in the last set of annual results.

http://www.admenergyplc.com/pdfs/ADM-Energy-Plc-AnnualReport-2018.pdf
"Key Audit Matter As at the year end the Group has net current liabilities of £1,198,000 indicating that the Group has insufficient cash reserves to meet its current obligations as they fall due.
The Group received a cash advance of £650,000 in the year for future works planned in Grenada which is not going ahead and is repayable on demand."

speculation only on my part, but i am guessing that the third party has
not yet demanded repayment as they would have collapsed the company
this year if they did, since clearly wasn't enough spare cash around to pay
them back if they did. and if the company collapses while adme still owes
big chunks of project level aje debt, that probably takes priority over the
adme debt for grenada. hence, whoever is owed that money for grenada
knows that they need to wait until the project level debt is paid off before
calling the debt in. ... implications for what happens with adme once they
reach that 2020 point when they are hoping to be cash flow positive. jmo.