RE: Trading update23 Jan 2020 18:36
no, i am certainly not laughing my socks off, more
just noting sadly that this company continues on a
poor trajectory from a retail pi perspective. [altho’
from a BoD perspective, maybe they are doing fine?
as they have increased spending on BoD members, in
a company that was already spending plenty on BoD
pay etc., given it has a very limited asset base and is
not actually the operator for the aje asset. plus, bear in
mind OO is not losing any of his money by a falling SP.]
meanwhile, the RNS didn’t really explain why that
“significant equipment upgrade” was needed, over
& above the routine maintenance work, & seems the
RNS attempts to attribute declining production to those
maintenance and upgrade issues, which dodges that
interesting point dan raises that fall in oil production may
just be more about those 2 wells gradually running down.
so production is declining, but the BoD are paying themselves
more, and they no longer expect to be cash flow positive in
2020. when I’d last posted about their cash position, i had
estimated they would run out of cash by about Easter, just
because of their running cash burn for ‘admin’, even if they
did *not* spend anything at all on new assets or further aje
development (although they did then get in that final chunk
of placing cash which i had not expected). hard to know very
precisely when they will run out of cash given current update,
as they haven’t explained just how big that increase in spending
has been, but as a ballpark guesstimate maybe during march?
so i think they will run out of cash within maybe 6-8 weeks,
even with no deals and no progress on aje development.
but what they do have is permission already granted from
their shareholders to issue a huge number of new shares.
so they had better try to crack on with that relatively soon.