RE: Aviva Takeover?21 Oct 2022 23:57
hi robleo, not sure i understand your remark. surely, it is
pretty ordinary when investing in shares, to think about
some things that might happen which we can’t control?
… because then we can at least then take those factors into
account when considering whether to buy or sell a certain
share, what %age weighting to give them in portfolios, etc.
so for example i can’t do anything about solvency II
requirements, but they are certainly worth considering
when thinking about buying / selling aviva shares?
similarly, i can’t really do much about the course of
the war in europe that putin has started, but it seems
reasonably sensible for me to think about what might
happen, and then how that might affect stock markets.
at the moment, i guess that there’s something like a 10%
- 15% chance that putin will choose to use some kind of
low yield battlefield nuke in the ukrainian conflict. if he
does, i think that’s most likely to be as a kind of demo
to intimidate, somewhere in the black sea, rather than
directly against a major population centre. snake island
would have an obvious symbolism given course of the
conflict so far. if putin does that, i think it’s unlikely to
lead to a full-on escalating nuclear armageddon (though
there’s a small terrifying chance that it would!!) but i
think it would almost certainly lead to a severe military
response from the west, & savage drops in stock markets.
(i agree of course that if there is full scale, all out, nuclear
war then aviva share price etc. will be least of our worries!)
atb.