The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
We have a really good CEO in charge and it's good of him to give site updates via Twitter. Q3 report/update end of the month should read very well.
I would be disappointed if the share price wasn't 100% up from this level come the end of Q1 2021 when first fertiliser production is scheduled for.
It's not what you know but who know. Justin invests as a day job and has a lot more time than most of us therefore take his information, scrutinise it and then make your own decision. This is the only stock I'm down in but not worried at all because it's only at the start of it's journey. There's no point making huge gains if you can't control your losses but believe in a couple of months time most of us here will be in profit and a further 2 months into this exciting journey.
Sorry, February 2021 obviously.
Current market cap is £147 million and first production from Lake Wey will be in February 2020.
Suggested Valuations for Salt Lake Potash Based on Lake Wey Alone:
LOW: 5 times EBITDA (£60m) = £300m
MEDIUM: 10 times EBITDA (£60m) = £600m
HIGH: 15 times EBITDA (£60m) = £900m
LAKE WEY BFS NUMBERS
Within the next 5 years, Tony Swiericzuk wants 3 lakes to be producing 1 million tonnes of SOP, which is four times as much as Lake Way’s 245 ktpa, this equates to £240m (A$444m) of EBITA.
Suggested Valuations for Salt Lake Potash Based on 3 Lakes:
LOW: 5 times EBITDA (£240m) = £1.2 billion – which is 8 times the current valuation.
MEDIUM: 10 times EBITDA (£240m) = £2.4 billion – which is 16 times current valuation.
HIGH: 15 times EBITDA (£240m) = £3.6 billion – which is 24 times current valuation.
Then there’s also another 6 lakes to take into account!!!!
I believe once 3 lakes are up and running then the company becomes a take over target plus the Directors have a lot of skin in the game so they will need to sell the company to reap high rewards.
If you follow the CEO Tony on Twitter things are progressing really well on site. Like somebody says I believe there's a seller and the market was a blood bath today as well. I'm sure people would be more than happy to top up further it if drops more although believe any further downside is limited. Looking forward to February and first production.
The CEO has outlined a plan to construct 3 working lakes in 5 years. As we are now 6 months away from the first lake being finished then assume worse case we have 4 and a half years remaining of the plan and best case 3 years as believe the CEO took over around 2 years ago. At this moment in time the company aren't planning on working on anymore than 3 lakes out of the 9 therefore assume after 3 lakes are completed then the company could be a take over target. The CEO has advised that money generated from fertiliser sales of the first lake will fund the second lake so I'm not expecting another fundraise and further dilution.
That meant to say hasn't doubled come February.
The company always give a quarterly report as well and next one is due at the end of September. For me, I will be disappointed if the share price has doubled come February and first production. I know the company have advised March is when first production will be carried out but the CEO has commented that he expects it to be in February.
I'm pretty sure we will find out on Tuesday what shares we got at the placing price.
11pm UK time?
11pm tonight is that correct and if so what channel will it be on to watch? Thank you.
Will start at the end of September in my opinion, potentially even before that. The institutions already have their 27.50p shares and retail investors will get there's on the 1st September. Give it say a month for anybody to flip their shares for a small profit and then believe the SP will start to increase as the company head towards commissioning the first lake in December and January and first fertiliser production in February. I would be disappointed if the SP doesn't increase by 100% from this level come February.
FDA application is to be submitted sometime within Q3. It's believed they will respond to the company within 3 months after the application is submitted if the company can request a fast track FDA approval or a priority review. If fast track approval is granted then believe the an FDA decision is a 3 months wait and for priority review it's 6 months. If the company don't qualify then they will go down the standard FDA application route and a decision will be 1 year from when the FDA application was submitted.
If the company have to wait 1 year for FDA approval then I expect the share price to drop and I for one will take advantage of this.
I've phoned HL and they have advised an e-mail will be issued to existing shareholders sometime on or shortly after Friday.
SO4 starting to get noticed by retail investors and some comments appearing on the LSE board. Volume has been good the last couple of days (for SO4 anyway) and can only imagine this will continue to increase as the company story unfolds over time. Very exciting company to be a shareholder.
Informative reading Deepjoy, thank you.
Deepjoy, what's your view on SO4 in the future? They have advised they will construct 3 lakes but what about the other 6 lakes? It's not a question for today as a long way off but as a long term holder I will be curious over time what they will do after constructing and mining the 3 lakes.
It might slow down the share price rise over the very short term but believe most holders are in it for the medium or long term as they can see the potential huge upside. I make it a 3 to 5 bagger for every lake therefore with the company already stating they're going to mine 3 lakes then that's 900% - 1500% increase over 4 and a half years. Worse case 2 bagger a year isn't bad at all in my eyes.
Yes, I've been buying for 9 months now and will be holding long term. Will need a bit more patience until FDA approval is received but it will be worth the wait.