Member Info for SpArmada

If you read through Var Energy updates, there has been a problem with a riser

I heard GLA has conducted a planned maintenance, a bit longer than usual though. Also, the data for Balder is available here, ~7,700 boepd in April (770 boepd for Mime/Kistos): https://factpages.npd.no/en/field/pageview/all/43562#

That's the typical refinancing terms, some money for the bondholders and the maturity is extended.

Maybe someone knows something that we don't

Dunderhead, I'm in the middle myself, I don't think they'll go down or come out of this so easily. In the end, the NBP is the judge here. It is very difficult for me to estimate what will be the price of the commodity the next year, so I prefer to stay out. If I'm wrong and shareholders make a lot of money, I'll be happy for all of them.

Opex would be a bit higher as it should be calculated from the 50% of production, not 40%, but the effect is minimal

I've made some wuick numbers:

- Remaining gross income for the year, lowering opex substantially: 184 days x 42 mmscfd x 40% x 10,400 therms/mmscf x ( £1.5/therm - £0.16/therm ) = £43.1 million

- Gross income next year to end of August (considering 0 decline due to the intermitent production from H1): 243 days x 42 mmscfd x 40% x 10,400 therms/mmscf x ( £1.5/therm - £0.16/therm ) = £56.9 million

- Condensate sales: £8.5 million (double than in 2022)

- Gross income: ~£108.5 million

From there you would have to deduct FX and G&A expense (~£4 million in a bit more of 1 year?), and taxation would be at least the same than last year as lower capex compensates lower prices (£11 million). With cash balances of ~£20 million less the £4 million of restricted cash (£3m were for the coupon, I guess). Total available funds would be £109.5 million (IF gas prices average 150p/th, H1 compensates all decline, which is optimistic, and there is 0 capex)

The total payment is £85m+£11m = £96m (as 1meteor pointed out), and the quarterly coupons from today to september 2024 would be ~£3 million with 5 payments after the last payment this June, totalling £15 million. Hence, payments are £111 million.

So, even in an optimistic scenario the company would struggle to repay the debt, so a placing or conversion of a large chunk of the bond should be foreseen. It would be wishful thinking if anyone believed that the company has forced the negotiation with the bondholders expecting that it could repay or refinance the bonds in this scenario. If the gas prices explode again above 200p/th, the company will be saved, but you would be actually placing a bet in the commodity, instead of the company.

Blakeley is trying to gain some time, I see little changes here. The IR has to be OUT, Phil is an absolute disgrace. In the last update for the placing they said there is a near-term M&A opportunity and they even added it to the production forecast; now they give a "Corporate update" and don't mention anything about it, did they crew it?

Last production figure was 17,800 boepd in just 6 days (25-31 May), now they gave the number for Q2, 14,800 boe/d, why wouldn't they keep the prod.figure since 25/05 when it seems the production increased?

Akatara is not at 38% completion, it was at 35% on the 7th of June , so it advanced 3% in 3 weeks, so we need other 62 weeks or 15+ months to complete it. They could announce a delay of first gas to H2 2024.

I still see that Blakeley is hiding something. I have 0 trust on him and his team.

GLTA

Eurofil, several things happened, a brief summary: I had a conversation with the IR that wasn't comforting, gas price fell below 50p, H2 wasn't a success at first, the company realised they are screwed and cannot pay the coupons or principal, and, now, they cancelled the 2 appraisal wells, puting the final nail in the coffin.

Maybe you bought below 4p and are making a nice profit, but I'd rather see your arguments to justify the company isn't a bad position, instead of just contempt.

Aligator, I spoke to a bondholder that sold to someone from UK (the broker was based in London) that was buying as much as possible of the bond at a discount, I don't know if the same person is also trying to get a position in the equity.

Thanks for the balanced reply, KYC. I'm not deramping anything, I have never in my life shorted a company (is it even possible to short an AIM stock?), just sharing a not so positive view if it is useful for others. I should have heard others that warned me about IOG's troubles back in summer 2022, I didn't and lost a lot of money here.

This guy quotes parts of the article, anyone has access to it?

https://twitter.com/oilgastourist/status/1674023467967029249?s=20

Just food for thought. You should not expect only rainbows and unicorns in IOG, it has been more of a nightmare in the last 12 months.

I sold and moved on. It's a matter of simple math: by using the current production and strip price, you can project the revenue and net income for the next 15 months. Then, add the payment of the coupons and principal. You can deny it as much as you want, nobody thought this situation could happen, but it did. IOG is at the mercy of bondholders, who will need to decide whether to refinance the bond or convert it into equity. Therefore, a very likely scenario is that they force a change of control similar to what Kistos did with Mime Petroleum. Those two appraisal wells were crucial in increasing the value of Kelham and Goddard licenses, making a farm-out agreement more favorable than the current terms.

So they company is RT'ing a note that has facts wrongs, great PR if either they didn't notice or they are behind the previous announced schedule without issuing a RNS

They don't have any growth opportunities right now after the disaster of Southwark. They can only count on Blythe's income to pay a €100 million bond next year and all the quarterly coupons at an annual rate of 13.5%, it is gonna be impossible because IOG receives less than 50% of the production and the current gas prices are nor enough. They may have to liquidate the company by selling all assets to repay the bond at a discount.

Plan C. Convert part of the note into equity and give the control to the bondholders with a massive dilution to shareholders

Someone is aggressively buying the bond at huge discount, watch out!

This article summarises the situation, I don't still understand why they went for this placing and facility. I have a lot of doubts on the board's intentions, it seems that some piece of information is missing to complete the puzzle.

https://moram.eu/jadestone-financing/